Hurricane Beryl

[DoctorMu]

One factor that may explain the hurricane's resilience in the face of increasing shear is that its powerful outflow seems to have deflected the UL westerlies that were impinging on the storm. Compare these images of satellite-estimated upper level winds today six hours apart pic.twitter.com/6M6XRXscyG
-- Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) July 3, 2024

Yep. Beryl has her own protective bubble.

[Cromagnum]

Look at all the crap on the trailing side. Shear is doing something alright

[brazoriatx]

57 getting roasted on s2k is funny lol

[cperk]

I think Beryl's eye is reforming.

[Stratton20]

Either im blind or it at least appears to me that baryl is making more of a slight westward- wnw jog, which would make it more so parallel to jamaica, but not actually ever moving over land, i could be wrong though

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

While westerly shear continues to affect Beryl, the central core of
the hurricane has made a bit of a comeback this afternoon with the
eye becoming better defined in Cuban radar data and re-appearing in
satellite imagery. Whether this has resulted in any
re-intensification is unclear, so the initial intensity will be
held at 120 kt pending the arrival of the next reconnaissance
aircraft. The Cuban radar data shows that northern eyewall is
brushing the southern coast of Jamaica at this time, with hurricane
conditions occurring mainly on the south side of the island.

The initial motion is now 285/17. A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or
just south of Jamaica during the next few hours and south of the
Cayman Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, Beryl
should turn northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge
caused by a large mid-latitude trough over the central United
States. There is a bit better agreement in the track guidance this
cycle, as the GFS has shifted its track a little southward and the
ECMWF has shifted its track a little northward. Based on this and
other guidance, the 96- and 120-h points have been shifted a
little to the southwest of the previous forecast. However, there
is still uncertainty during this part of the forecast, and a
landfall in Texas cannot yet be ruled out.

Beryl should continue to experience some westerly shear for the
next 24 h, and the ECMWF forecasts moderate shear to persist until
the hurricane makes landfall in Yucatan. This portion of the
intensity forecast calls for weakening as shown by the guidance.
However, given that Beryl seems reluctant to weaken, the forecast
is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The cyclone
should weaken to a tropical storm while crossing Yucatan. The
intensity guidance has become less enthusiastic about the potential
for Beryl to re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the
model forecast upper-level winds seem generally favorable, and
based on this the intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to
re-gain hurricane strength over the Gulf.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected to continue in Jamaica over the next
several hours and spread into the Cayman Islands tonight.
Mountainous locations in Jamaica are likely to experience
destructive wind gusts.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.

3. Damaging winds, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize
beginning Thursday night as Beryl approaches that area as a
hurricane. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect
for portions of that area.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in
the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should
monitor the progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 77.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.1N 80.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 19.2N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 19.9N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0600Z 20.9N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 93.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 24.0N 96.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 26.0N 98.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[brazoriatx]

No change in the track

[AtascocitaWX]

She is back expanding and eye is clearing out again.

[Pas_Bon]

Funny story. I checked Kingston weather on my WUnderground app earlier. Hadn’t changed back to League City. I kept getting notifications about hurricane force winds, tornado warnings, lightning. I about had a heart attack. I was frantically checking for a surprise hurricane. Lol

Oops

[Stratton20]

ICON- still says upper Texas coast lol

[AtascocitaWX]

ICON- still says upper Texas coast lol

ICON may the be on to to something.

[Rip76]

[Pas_Bon]

*sigh*. This thing will be the death of me. Lol

[Stratton20]

Im thinking beryl is going to stay offshore and not move over land, it definitely looks like its taking more of a westward bend, guess we will see if recon confirms this, that could have significant implications on its track

[Andrew]

Beryl is starting to feel the impacts of shear and land interactions. The next 6-12 hours will be key to see what the storm looks like as it moves into the Western Caribbean

[Scott747]

18z GFS may get pulled further nw..... Gonna be ac close call.

[Scott747]

Interesting run. It doesn't get fully 'captured' until landfall. But gains significant latitude once in the gulf and especially after landfall.

[Stratton20]

It does look like the GFS does has more of a connection with the trough on this run, slightly more stronger us central trough

[Cpv17]

Interesting run. It doesn't get fully 'captured' until landfall. But gains significant latitude once in the gulf and especially after landfall.

It could ride the coastline from northern MX all the way up to Matagorda Bay for all we know.

[Andrew]

Interesting run. It doesn't get fully 'captured' until landfall. But gains significant latitude once in the gulf and especially after landfall.

GFS is back to fully decoupling the low and mid-level centers. If that type of situation plays out a landfall across Central Mexico is likely