Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 9:17 pm
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2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
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Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 9:36 pm
Interesting to see even the Euro control run is more north of its op run by a fair amount, OP run is northern Mexico and control run is south padre island, still far South of us, but also further north than the operational run, wonder if we are seeing the beginnings of a northern trend again?
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 9:38 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 9:17 pmHe probably went on a 600 mile bike ride this week in this heat. I think he’s a distant relative of the devil.
With that said, I like Chris. He has a wicked sense of humor.
I have been the recipient of that " wicked" humor a time or two...lol
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 9:39 pm
Bruh, didn't you see what 57 has already said? He's word is gospel. Just quit while you are ahead lol..I'm jokingStratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 9:36 pm Interesting to see even the Euro control run is more north of its op run by a fair amount, OP run is northern Mexico and control run is south padre island, still far South of us, but also further north than the operational run, wonder if we are seeing the beginnings of a northern trend again?
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 9:42 pm
I take back what i said, kinda the same as the last run, vorticity maps can be a little confusing to look at sometimes, i am interested to see if the GEFS ensemble is on too something because that was a very sizable shift north at 18z
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 9:48 pm
I don’t see how the models can see where the storm is going if there is no center of low pressure or basically a starting pointStratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 9:42 pm I take back what i said, kinda the same as the last run, vorticity maps can be a little confusing to look at sometimes, i am interested to see if the GEFS ensemble is on too something because that was a very sizable shift north at 18z
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 10:53 pm
RGEM; Tropical storm into San Antonio Bay FWIW
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:20 pm
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:26 pm
00z GFS is farther north compared to last run which was in extreme north mexico, now its in south padre island, trending towards its ensembles more northerly solutions
CMC even further north around corpus christi
CMC even further north around corpus christi
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2023 11:56 pm
Big jump north on the 0Z Canadian model.Into Corpus
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2023 9:03 am
I think if it even comes in at corpus, we wont see much of anything. MY only hope is that the moisture gets displaced much further north away from the “center” like we've seen many times before. But, thats just dreaming. Unfortunately I think we will just have to write this one off and move on and pray a new setup will happen soon.
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2023 10:01 am
Yes for most of us to get some decent rain it needs to move north of Corpus. Just posting the trends. As several models have started trending back north. Question mainly is if the trend north will continue or not.djmike wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 9:03 am I think if it even comes in at corpus, we wont see much of anything. MY only hope is that the moisture gets displaced much further north away from the “center” like we've seen many times before. But, thats just dreaming. Unfortunately I think we will just have to write this one off and move on and pray a new setup will happen soon.
6Z ICON further north now into Corpus.
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2023 10:51 am
12Z ICON
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2023 10:54 am
It’s common for models to keep shifting at this range. By tomorrow we will have a much better idea.
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2023 11:16 am
I wonder why this hasnt being designated as an invest yet? Im not writing anything off until i see some hurricane nodel runs
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2023 11:21 am
12Z GFS into Baffin Bay
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2023 11:25 am
12Z RGEM stronger with a moderate Tropical Storm into Port Aransas.
On another note the ICON shows the crossover now that the EURO has been showing.
On another note the ICON shows the crossover now that the EURO has been showing.
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2023 11:44 am
Yeah i saw that Euro run this morning showing that crossover system we will see if it continues to garner support.
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2023 12:09 pm
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Sat Aug 19, 2023 12:11 pm
the hurricane models are going to be interesting to look at, wonder why an invest hasnt been designated yet?