August 2020:

[tireman4]

Lots of days to go. Lots of recon days to sift through. Lots of model runs to watch. We are just in the 3rd inning of a 9 inning game

This season may be a 20+-inning game....

I will so grant you that

[Kingwood36]

Marco has arrived

[Belmer]

We finally have TS Marco...

[davidiowx]

Sheesh what a crazy next few days are coming. Really hope we can get a badge on steering with the HH and balloons in the next day or two.

[Ptarmigan]

The intensity forecast model for Laura has it as strong as Category 5.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... /al132020/

[Kingwood36]

No change in the track with Marco as of now right?

[srainhoutx]

I don't envy the forecasters at the NHC. There's going to be an awfully lot of Gulf Coast real estate under Watches/Warnings in the days ahead for Laura and Marco.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Marco could be slowing down after it makes landfall.

[Cpv17]

No change in the track with Marco as of now right?

It’s expected to slow down once it moves inland. Also not expected to become a hurricane any longer.

[Tx2005]

No change in the track with Marco as of now right?

It’s expected to slow down once it moves inland. Also not expected to become a hurricane any longer.

It's not expected to stall is it?

[Ptarmigan]

No change in the track with Marco as of now right?

It’s expected to slow down once it moves inland. Also not expected to become a hurricane any longer.

Forecasting intensity is difficult. I still would not be surprised it becomes a hurricane. Slowing after moving inland is very worrisome.

[Cpv17]

No change in the track with Marco as of now right?

It’s expected to slow down once it moves inland. Also not expected to become a hurricane any longer.

Forecasting intensity is difficult. I still would not be surprised it becomes a hurricane. Slowing after moving inland is very worrisome.

I agree it could still very well become a hurricane. And I actually think it could slow down once it moves inland due to Laura tugging on it.

[Kingwood36]

I've NEVER sen this before but beaumont is in the NHC forcast cone for BOTH storms...thats pretty amazing!

[Cpv17]

No change in the track with Marco as of now right?

It’s expected to slow down once it moves inland. Also not expected to become a hurricane any longer.

It's not expected to stall is it?

That’s a legit possibility.

[txbear]

West and west we go. Even though it’s not near the magnitude of the first dramatic shift, NHC ever so slightly nudging to the left on the map.

That shorter line On Marco from Tuesday to Wednesday isn’t exactly a positive sign, and Laura’s potential movement once onshore is a bit more of an unknown. The play between the two is going to be interesting to say the least.

[DoctorMu]

NOAA is cranking up the rain on Tuesday, in the Brazos Valley.

The potential for Marco to saturate the ground in SETX and Laura to rain on top has to weigh heavy. Laura won't be welcome wherever she goes IF her intensity rachets up as expected.

Uncertainty and trepidation remains the forecast themes for the weekend.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Afternoon showers/storms dying off by 00Z, with few/sct high
clouds with light/vrb winds. A weak disturbance may bring showers
and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon but confidence not high
enough for anything but a VCTS mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 408 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Rest of Today through Saturday Afternoon]...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop along the southwestern quadrant of the CWA through the rest
of the afternoon. There is still a slight chance for some additional
isolated development a little further north of this region, but most
of the activity is expected to continue to occur closer to the
coastal locations. This activity is expected to dissipate during the
evening hours and skies will lift and scatter out tonight. However,
a shortwave moving southward along the backside of the upper level
trough that is located over the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Tennessee Valley, will move into Southeast Texas tonight and
could allow for showers to move into the CWA from the north. Low
temperatures tonight will be slightly higher...roughly in the mid
to upper 70s inland and in the low 80s along the coastal regions.
Winds are expected continue light and variable through early
Saturday morning.

Another day of periods of showers and thunderstorms is expected
Saturday, given that the upper level trough will scoot a little
father southeast and into our region in response to the shortwave
moving through the local area early Saturday morning. High
temperatures Saturday afternoon are expected to stay in the mid to
upper 90s across most of Southeast Texas...a degree or two lower in
some locations depending on where the storms develop during the
afternoon hours.

24


.LONG TERM/TROPICAL [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

So the forecast starts off relatively quiet with the ending of the
seabreeze showers and thunderstorms. Sunday hot and a little more
humid with seabreeze showers and thunderstorms possible. The
transition Monday into Tuesday with the approach of TD-14 (currently
forecast to be a hurricane in the west central Gulf) should bring an
increase in rain chances throughout the day first near the coast in
the morning expanding inland. Current track brings it toward the
area between Galveston and Matagorda Bay. This is a substantial
change from the forecast package this morning. Again the shear
should be high as it near the coast and weakening before landfall
appears likely but with the strong shear from the southwest ahead of
it the heavier rainfall and storms could be shunted up across the
corridor from Navasota to Houston to Galveston rather than tucked in
close to the center. The threat for heavy rainfall will probably
peak across the region Tuesday and Tuesday Night. If the track
doesn`t change then flash flood issues will be possible. Training of
storms will be a big concern. Stressing the IF on the track.
Uncertainly is still high after it gets in the central Gulf. Elevated
tide levels and minor storm surge a good bet with this track though
small variations in track may make a tremendous difference in
impacts. Based on this current NHC forecast the system should depart
the area Wednesday night but the moisture and storms will probably
continue through Wednesday night. Thursday will run with chance POPs
mainly eastern half of the area. But we should probably talk about
TS Laura...quite a bit of the extended guidance is tracking this
system west across the northern Gulf and could potentially reach the
western Gulf. Stay tuned this is going to be a long week.
45


.MARINE...

Periods of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the weekend, particularly during the early
morning and afternoon hours. Deteriorating conditions can then be
expected into early-mid parts of next week in association with a
possible approaching tropical cyclone. See long term discussion
for those details.

Based on the latest NHC forecast, in general mariners should
prepare for:

- Beginning arrival of longer period swell: Sunday night & Monday
- Seas building to 6+ feet: late Monday
- Increased water levels & high risk of rip currents: late Monday
- Arrival of TS strength winds: Monday night

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 74 97 73 98 74 / 20 30 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 77 97 75 96 76 / 10 30 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 93 82 90 80 / 20 30 20 20 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...45
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...24

[DoctorMu]

West and west we go. Even though it’s not near the magnitude of the first dramatic shift, NHC ever so slightly nudging to the left on the map.

That shorter line On Marco from Tuesday to Wednesday isn’t exactly a positive sign, and Laura’s potential movement once onshore is a bit more of an unknown. The play between the two is going to be interesting to say the least.

We would literally be in unprecedented territory. A forecasting nightmare...

[Cromagnum]

There is no way Laura can maintain any kind of intensity if it hits every acre of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba on its way.

[Tx2005]

Latest GFS run shows Laura hitting as a possible Cat 2/3 hurricane somewhere between Galveston Bay and the TX/LA border (maybe High Island or closer to Port Arthur).

[djmike]

Question: When or how early will they begin issuing watches along the TX/La coastline?