Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Scott747]

6z GFS doesn't budge and continues to show enough of a weakness to pull Alex to towards the Tx/La border. Parallel GFS nudges to the N above Brownsville.

[Scott747]

6z HWRF comes back up the coast towards Port Isabel.

[Scott747]

As pointed out by Jeff Masters the 12z runs will definitely be more telling with the extra data that will be ingested.

From Jeff Masters:

The 500AM EDT forecast is a bit different than the previous forecast. Essentially, it looks like the area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken due to a trough over the eastern US. This will weaken the steering currents and slow's Alex's motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The reduced storm motion will give Alex more time to intensify in a a warm SST/weak shear environment. The current forecast calls for Alex to become a category 2 storm before making landfall north of Tampico, MX late Wed. night/early Thursday morning.

The $64,000 question is "Will the ridge continue to weaken, allowing Alex to move north and continue intensification?" The 12Z global model runs will have more accurate forecasts than the the 6Z runs thanks to the presence of radiosonde data, so hopefully they'll provide an answer. It's still my opinion that Alex will not directly impact the oil spill recovery efforts, but I can't say that the chances of it doing so are getting smaller now.

[biggerbyte]

Things are not looking good. Everyone should pay close attention to the actual track of this storm. Brownsville to NOLA watch out. S.E. Texas is under strong consideration. So many possibilities as the days progress with the changes in conditions that will move this storm along. I'm really beginning to remove Mexico from the equation all together.

Stay tuned, and prepare for the season now.

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive structure for a cyclone over land...

[srainhoutx]

Those following guidance may want to check out the ensembles as well as the OP runs. Also note HPC thoughts this morning...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
330 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

VALID 12Z THU JUL 01 2010 - 12Z SUN JUL 04 2010

DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS UNUSUALLY SMALL TO BEGIN THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD DUE IN PART TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE OMEGA-BLOCK
EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO QUEBEC. HOWEVER...
THE BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE DAYS 4-5 BEFORE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATING WITH THE RESIDUAL LONGWAVE PATTERN PROGRESSING
EASTWARD DAYS 6-7. THE MOST NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE WESTERN TROUGH SEGMENT OF THE OMEGA-BLOCK AS ITS BEGINS
TO ERODE...
WITH THE 00Z GFS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF IN LIFTING THE TROUGH
OUT OF THE WEST DAYS 3-4 BUT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF IN
REINFORCING THE TROUGH DAYS 5-6.

MEANWHILE...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALL BUT THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
MANIFEST CONVECTION NORTH OF THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX
AFTER IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH IN TURN SUFFICIENTLY
ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO STEER ALEX TOWARD PORT ARTHUR BY
DAY 5...A SCENARIO NOT SUPPORT BY THE BULK OF GUIDANCE...THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST...AND COORDINATED HPC/NHC POINTS FROM
YESTERDAY. THUS...WILL HONOR FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH ALEX WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...THE
PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL BE CREATED USING 100 PERCENT OF THE 00Z
ECMWF DAY 3 BEFORE INCORPORATING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF THE 12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DAYS 4-7...WITH THE BLEND BY DAY 7
APPROXIMATELY 1/3 ECMWF TO 2/3 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

JAMES

Edit to add RECON schedule for this evening...

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 28/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0401A ALEX
C. 27/2100Z
D. 20.5N 91.0W
E. 27/2300Z TO 28/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[perk]

That disco this morning blew me away. This storm actually is improving in strusture while over land, and his hint that the track might have to be adjusted north on the next update.

[srainhoutx]

Forecaster Stewart wrote a very informative discussion. I suspect a lot of OEM officials as well as TX Gulf Coast residents are paying close attention this morning. The 12Z runs will likely be watched very carefully.

[redfish1]

what time do the 12z runs come out?

[Hardcoreweather]

Get Ready for some big time rains

[sleetstorm]

What is the current status on the ridge? Are you saying that once that tropical storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico it will or at least could begin to travel north?

[SusieinLP]

Most people I know are not worried at all about Alex...and the news is not hyping anything either. So if Alex decides to make a move towards us, I think many in this area will be caught off guard. JMO




Of course we are not in the bubble so there really is nothing to hype...

[srainhoutx]

The Upper Ridge is slowly pushing E as the Western Trough approaches...

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv

[Hardcoreweather]

It will be downgraded at 10am to a TD

Quote:
AL, 01, 2010062712, , BEST, 0, 186N, 901W, 30, 1001, TD

[Hardcoreweather]

DGEX model

[srainhoutx]

Latest...

[Paul]

Alex will splash down in a few hours.....then its back to model watching.....man these 2am nights are killing me....

Yucatan is flat so I suspected Alex would survive the trip....plenty of warm bath tub water...it wont take him long...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Paul]

NAM out 42hrs.....while we wait on the GFS....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 7_042l.gif

[Paul]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[Hardcoreweather]

Don't see this everyday and I wonder if the death cones will touch at 5pm