February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[TexasMetBlake]

Here's the latest at 60 hrs:

NAM:



GFS:



Euro (hour 72)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

[Portastorm]

The development of a coastal trough or low certainly makes the picture more interesting, doesn't it? Could prolong precip in SE Texas but also wouldn't it provide warmer, overrunning moisture above the surface and dampen the air column?

[txsnowmaker]

The development of a coastal trough or low certainly makes the picture more interesting, doesn't it? Could prolong precip in SE Texas but also wouldn't it provide warmer, overrunning moisture above the surface and dampen the air column?

I am not well-versed enough in meteorology to have an answer for that. But I hope the answer is no, and also that you and your fellow Austinites don't miss out on the snow this time around.

[TexasMetBlake]

The development of a coastal trough or low certainly makes the picture more interesting, doesn't it? Could prolong precip in SE Texas but also wouldn't it provide warmer, overrunning moisture above the surface and dampen the air column?

I am not well-versed enough in meteorology to have an answer for that. But I hope the answer is no, and also that you and your fellow Austinites don't miss out on the snow this time around.

It all depends on what the players are. If you have a stale airmass overhead that is just barely cold enough as it is to snow and you have a coastal low develop, then yes, that ruins everything. Stratoform precipitation is always an indication of WAA. However, with a 1032 high building in, there is going to be sufficient CAA moving in. The upper levels are going to be plenty cold enough. Also, the column is going to be far more moist than it was on the Dec. 4th event which means it won't take nearly as long to moisten the column to allow it to snow.

[TexasMetBlake]

18z GFS is a good bit warmer for the March 2nd event. Looks like all rain event at this point with an intense cyclone developing off the coast. Just an FYI

[brazoria_county22]

so is the coastal counties still in "it" my son wants to know if he needs to start working on his "cough" for school tues morning lol

[TexasMetBlake]

HAHAHAHA, I can do better than a cough, but I shouldn't spout things like that on the internet. LOL. I was a pro at skipping school in my "younger" days---until one time I thought I had gotten away scott free heading into Houston when I looked to my left and realized my dad was right next to us on the freeway! I was busted. What luck--out of 6 million people, he found ME!

[brazoria_county22]

well so can he ..when he dosent want me to find out he is skipping..but he told me flat out if we have a chance for snow im NOT going lol

[TexasMetBlake]

well so can he ..when he dosent want me to find out he is skipping..but he told me flat out if we have a chance for snow im NOT going lol

Oh come on, dad/mom! How often does it really snow in Houston--TWICE in one season?! To be honest, I can't blame him. But you didn't hear that from me.

[brazoria_county22]

not at all candy cane! so what r the odds? less than 20%?..if its around 40-50% ill let him stay if not his butt is going!

[TexasMetBlake]

Can't help but notice that the 12z GFS has all rain for Houston. It keeps going back and forth. We're right on the brink...

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kiah.txt

[TexasMetBlake]

not at all candy cane! so what r the odds? less than 20%?..if its around 40-50% ill let him stay if not his butt is going!

Well if I remember correctly, there were quite a few who thought the heaviest snow on Dec. 4th would be well north of I-10. It ended up being just the opposite with the heaviest snow from Sugar Land southwest to Wharton. I just don't think we're going to know until the snowbands begin to set up. I think there's a decent enough shot that the NWS will likely issue some type of advisory or watch overnight tonight. No guarantee on that, but the NAM and GFS sure paint a fun picture.

[Andrew]

I think it is important though to realize that this is just the 19z. If this continues for the 00z then I will be interested.

Candy, Idk why it doesn't say any snow or mix. The soundings and snow graphs all paint at least SOME type of mixture- snow.

[brazoria_county22]

not at all candy cane! so what r the odds? less than 20%?..if its around 40-50% ill let him stay if not his butt is going!

Well if I remember correctly, there were quite a few who thought the heaviest snow on Dec. 4th would be well north of I-10. It ended up being just the opposite with the heaviest snow from Sugar Land southwest to Wharton. I just don't think we're going to know until the snowbands begin to set up. I think there's a decent enough shot that the NWS will likely issue some type of advisory or watch overnight tonight. No guarantee on that, but the NAM and GFS sure paint a fun picture.

THANK YOU KINDLY!

[TexasMetBlake]

I think it is important though to realize that this is just the 18z. If this continues for the 00z then I will be interested.

Candy, Idk why it doesn't say any snow or mix. The soundings and snow graphs all paint at least SOME type of mixture- snow.

Oh I agree with you, but I feel obligated to spout the bad news with the good. It's important to review all the data. I'm intrigued by the 18z low off the coast. We're gonna have to watch the evolution of that over the next few runs.

[Portastorm]

Here is the latest from Houston pro met Jeff Lindner:

Winter Storm heading for TX

Accumulations of snow possible over portions of SE TX Tuesday-Tuesday night.

Significant snow accumulations possible for N of Austin toward Waco (4-8 inches).

Discussion:
Strong cold front heading for SE TX this afternoon...ahead of this boundary temps. have soared into the mid 70's across the region...and it will all end tonight.

Cold front will cross the area overnight with cold air advection in progress on Monday with highs 10-15 degrees colder than today. Next in a new series of upper level storms will arrive into the 4 corners on Monday and head for TX Tuesday while arctic air over the central plains pours southward into the region Monday night.

Upper level storm brings moisture over and into the cold arctic dome starting Tuesday with light band of winter mix starting around mid morning over our NW counties and spreading to other areas of SE TX by Tuesday evening. Dynamics look fairly impressive with this system and some of the short range models are showing decent 700mb instability supportive of meso scale snow banding and burst of heavy snow.

P-type:
Forecast soundings support numerous P-type issues over the region Tuesday/Tuesday night with favorable critical thickness for SN and favorable cold profiles for SN to make it to the surface first up north and then dropping southward. Will break out the following three grid lines for P-type in a first attempt with this event....changes are for sure with this in the coming 24 hours.

N of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston:
Expect a RA/SN/IP mix at the onset of precip with cooling of the air column to below freezing by Tuesday afternoon and change to all SN.

N of a line from Wharton to Downtown Houston to Liberty:
Mostly RA Tuesday then a mix of RA/SN Tuesday evening into Tuesday night...could see a complete change to all SN across Austin, Waller, N Harris, N Liberty Counties.

Coastal Areas:
All RA Tuesday with a possible RA/SN mix late Tuesday night...but mainly RA.

Accumulations:
Surface temperatures with this event will be in the mid to upper 30's based on the GFS sounding data. Dewpoints in the upper 20's to 30 at the start of the precip. do not bode well for evaporative cooling to or below freezing. Feel it is going to be hard to get the surface temp to freezing...which means a lot of melting on contact. On the other hand, meso models are pointing toward banding features over the northern part of the area...which may support heavy snow and rapid accumulations as seen over the DFW area 2 weeks ago even with surface temps. in the 32-35 range.

Needless to say this is a low confidence forecast!

N of a line from Brenham to Coldspring:
Slushy accumulations of 1-2 inches mainly on grassy surfaces.

Columbus to The Woodlands:
A dusting to .5 inch of accumulation.

Little to no accumulation is expect south of this line at this time...most of what falls in this region will melt on contact.

Some significant changes can be expected with accumulations as this event unfolds.

Temperatures may make it to freezing along and N of I-10 by Wednesday morning supporting the freezing of melted snow on bridges and overpasses.

At this time the NWS is holding off on the issuance of Winter Storm products, but they will likely be coming in the next 12 hours or so...especially for areas N of HWY 105.

[TexasMetBlake]

Here's another look at the 12z. It appears that the energy shears out as it pushes across. This is at 500 mb. Keep in mind that the greatest lift is north of the surface low. So the further south this thing goes, the better.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.850.html

Temps don't fall below freezing until precip exits stage right. But again, this is old data now.

[Andrew]

I think it is important though to realize that this is just the 18z. If this continues for the 00z then I will be interested.

Candy, Idk why it doesn't say any snow or mix. The soundings and snow graphs all paint at least SOME type of mixture- snow.

Oh I agree with you, but I feel obligated to spout the bad news with the good. It's important to review all the data. I'm intrigued by the 18z low off the coast. We're gonna have to watch the evolution of that over the next few runs.

Yea I know what you mean. Wouldn't life be good if data was always "good data".

After readings Jeff's post, one thing did interest me and that is that if we get enough snow then temps around 33-35 won't matter. It will start sticking. That is also what happened around my house on the December 4th Event. I had a good dusting of snow with temps hovering above freezing. It will also help that all levels except ground should be below freezing.

[Andrew]

All I want is something like this:

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/9107/img1091tl.jpg

[txsnowmaker]

I took great interest in Jeff's mention of the possibility of melted snow freezing Wednesday morning along and north of I-10. If the 18z GFS were to verify, early Wednesday morning the snow would really just be getting started for parts of the city in this area. Things could get mighty interesting...