ENSO Updates

[Ptarmigan]

CFSv2 El Nino Region 3.4 forecast.



Looks to be Neutral to weak El Nino.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4°C
Niño 3.4 0.4°C
Niño 3 0.2°C
Niño 1+2 -0.1°C

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. The rest cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 and 4 are the same. Region 3.4 warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.3ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a neutral to me. Winter weather lovers could be slightly interested...if the trends hold.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like a neutral to me. Winter weather lovers could be slightly interested...if the trends hold.

1929, 1935, and 1989 went from La Nina to Neutral. December 1989, January 1930, and January 1936 had cold blasts.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have cooled except Region 4, which is the same.

[Ptarmigan]

The ECMWF has Neutral by this winter.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. The rest of the region warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3 and 4 are unchanged. Region 3.4 cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3, 3.4, and 4 cooled.

[srainhoutx]

NWSCPC‏Verified account @NWSCPC · 7m7 minutes ago
A La Nina watch has been issued, with a 55-60% chance of #LaNina during Northern Hemisphere fall & winter 2017-18. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml …

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ugh... hope its a weak one.

[GBinGrimes]

Tried doing some research on whether La Nina is a cooler or warmer winter for us. Based on previous post who I know loves cold weather it must be warmer, in theory, for our region. This would stink. Bad.

However, the graphs that I found that display typical La Nina wind flow portrays cooler/colder air that is closer and available to be tapped by a dipping jet stream, should there be one.

We certainly can't do anything about the weather but man oh man...we need a couple of solid (not pipe busting) freezes to even the score from the past 2 benign winters.

[Ptarmigan]

Some of the biggest cold blasts occurred in La Nina, like February 1895, February 1899, December 1924, January/February 1951, December 1983, February 1989, February 1996, and February 2011.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Tried doing some research on whether La Nina is a cooler or warmer winter for us. Based on previous post who I know loves cold weather it must be warmer, in theory, for our region. This would stink. Bad.

However, the graphs that I found that display typical La Nina wind flow portrays cooler/colder air that is closer and available to be tapped by a dipping jet stream, should there be one.

We certainly can't do anything about the weather but man oh man...we need a couple of solid (not pipe busting) freezes to even the score from the past 2 benign winters.

La Nina's can have very cold blasts, but they typically are roller coaster ride Winters, at least from my memories. HOT/Cold/HOT/Cold/HOT/Cold with typically drier than normal Winters.

I prefer Weak to Moderate El Ninos. That typically gives us consistent cool to cold temps with overrunning moisture.

[Ptarmigan]

Tried doing some research on whether La Nina is a cooler or warmer winter for us. Based on previous post who I know loves cold weather it must be warmer, in theory, for our region. This would stink. Bad.

However, the graphs that I found that display typical La Nina wind flow portrays cooler/colder air that is closer and available to be tapped by a dipping jet stream, should there be one.

We certainly can't do anything about the weather but man oh man...we need a couple of solid (not pipe busting) freezes to even the score from the past 2 benign winters.

La Nina's can have very cold blasts, but they typically are roller coaster ride Winters, at least from my memories. HOT/Cold/HOT/Cold/HOT/Cold with typically drier than normal Winters.

I prefer Weak to Moderate El Ninos. That typically gives us consistent cool to cold temps with overrunning moisture.

La Nina winters are warmer because they are drier. Also, drier air makes it colder. Some of the most prolonged freezes happened in La Nina like in 1951, 1983, and 1989.

El Nino winters have been the coldest, especially weak to moderate El Nino like in 1904-1905, 1911-1912, 1963-1964, 1972-1973, 1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 2009-2010.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3, and 4 cooled. Region 3.4 is the same.