https://youtu.be/GFZthGE2XDY?feature=shared
Pow Ponder
December 2023
Last edited by sambucol on Sun Dec 03, 2023 7:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Oops. ERob should have been DC.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2023 5:04 pm Big loss for A&M here
https://twitter.com/billyliucci/status/ ... kKTGqvWItg
I agree. The players and recruits loved that guy.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2023 6:59 pmOops. ERob should have been DC.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 03, 2023 5:04 pm Big loss for A&M here
https://twitter.com/billyliucci/status/ ... kKTGqvWItg
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6062
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 041053
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
453 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Today is National Cookie Day and with the weather throughout the
short term period being a sweet treat...let`s have some fun! See if
you can catch all of the cookie puns sprinkled in...there are a lot
of brownie points up for grabs! Upper level clouds continue to
stream overhead along and south of I-10 as we remain close enough to
a jet streak and a stream of PVA from shortwaves extending from
northern Mexico to the Upper Texas coastline. We forgot the cooking
spray though, so the upper level clouds will stick around into
tonight even with a cold front pushing offshore by the mid morning
hours today. This will be a dry FROPA as PW values remain in the
0.3"-0.4" range (10th percentile: ~0.36"), so it`ll stay nice and
crisp out there. You`ll fill a difference this afternoon dough with
temperatures slightly cooler than Sunday`s with highs topping out in
the mid to upper 60s. That`s just the first of two cold fronts that
push through early this week...it keeps getting batter and batter!
Surface high pressure drifts overhead today and remains in place
tonight. The upper level clouds south of I-10 begin to crumble
overnight as the previously mint-tioned stream of PVA nudges
southward. So, we`ll have light winds and clearing skies with CAA
prevailing...that`s a slam dunk recipe for max radiational cooling!
Expect low temperatures to bottom out in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
Coming up on Chews-day, another mid/upper level trough dips down
into the Upper Midwest with its associated surface low drifting
southeastward from the Dakotas to the Great Lakes region. This will
lead to another weak FROPA on late Tuesday afternoon/evening
bringing us s`more CAA going into Tuesday night. It`s worth noting
that we catch the tail-end of the second front, so the main batch of
colder air will remain to our northeast. Ahead of the front on
Tuesday afternoon, we`ll still see temperatures reach the upper 60s
to low 70s. With skies finally cleared out for all of Southeast
Texas on Tuesday night and a ~1030mb surface high pressure moving in
leading to light winds again, I decided to take a calculated whisk
and trend a little bite cooler. Expect low temperatures to be a
degree or two cooler than Monday night`s.
Speaking of Tuesday night, this is when mid to upper level ridging
begins to chip in from the west. That sets the stage for raisin
temperatures going into the long term period...but they don`t look
to get high enough to get us into baking territory! Hopefully I
didn`t fudge the numbers while counting things up, but if you
counted 24 puns then you got em all and earned the title of "one
smart cookie"!
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Surface high pressure ridging into the area from the north at the start
of this period will gradually work its way eastward through the end
of the week. Northeast to east winds on Wednesday will become southeast
to south through the end of the week resulting in a warming trend. Moisture
levels will also be on the rise from this onshore flow, and rains will
come back into the forecast mainly from late Friday night through early
Sunday morning. The latest forecast has the next cold front moving across
the area during the day on Saturday. Cooler and drier weather accompanied
by breezy northwest to north winds can be expected Saturday night and
Sunday behind this front.
The high temperature trend has readings in the 60s on Wednesday increasing
to mainly 70s on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Behind the front on
Sunday, we`ll indicate highs in the 50s/60.
The low temperature trend has readings in the 40s Wednesday night increasing
to the 50s/60s on Thursday night and Friday night. Behind the front
on Saturday night, we`ll indicate lows in the 40s.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 453 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Mainly a wind forecast with VFR conditions prevailing throughout
the TAF period. Winds pick up out of the northwest initially
following the passage of a weak cold front then transitions to
northeasterly by the late morning hours. Winds become light and
variable after sunset.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Mainly light northeasterly winds and low seas will persist through at
least midweek, becoming southerly and increasing (seas rising too) by
the end of the week. Winds could occasionally flirt with caution speeds.
Look for a cold front (and associated showers/storms) to move off the
coast and through the area on Saturday with strong northwest winds
and building seas in its wake (advisories will likely be needed).
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 46 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 55 66 52 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42
FXUS64 KHGX 041053
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
453 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Today is National Cookie Day and with the weather throughout the
short term period being a sweet treat...let`s have some fun! See if
you can catch all of the cookie puns sprinkled in...there are a lot
of brownie points up for grabs! Upper level clouds continue to
stream overhead along and south of I-10 as we remain close enough to
a jet streak and a stream of PVA from shortwaves extending from
northern Mexico to the Upper Texas coastline. We forgot the cooking
spray though, so the upper level clouds will stick around into
tonight even with a cold front pushing offshore by the mid morning
hours today. This will be a dry FROPA as PW values remain in the
0.3"-0.4" range (10th percentile: ~0.36"), so it`ll stay nice and
crisp out there. You`ll fill a difference this afternoon dough with
temperatures slightly cooler than Sunday`s with highs topping out in
the mid to upper 60s. That`s just the first of two cold fronts that
push through early this week...it keeps getting batter and batter!
Surface high pressure drifts overhead today and remains in place
tonight. The upper level clouds south of I-10 begin to crumble
overnight as the previously mint-tioned stream of PVA nudges
southward. So, we`ll have light winds and clearing skies with CAA
prevailing...that`s a slam dunk recipe for max radiational cooling!
Expect low temperatures to bottom out in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
Coming up on Chews-day, another mid/upper level trough dips down
into the Upper Midwest with its associated surface low drifting
southeastward from the Dakotas to the Great Lakes region. This will
lead to another weak FROPA on late Tuesday afternoon/evening
bringing us s`more CAA going into Tuesday night. It`s worth noting
that we catch the tail-end of the second front, so the main batch of
colder air will remain to our northeast. Ahead of the front on
Tuesday afternoon, we`ll still see temperatures reach the upper 60s
to low 70s. With skies finally cleared out for all of Southeast
Texas on Tuesday night and a ~1030mb surface high pressure moving in
leading to light winds again, I decided to take a calculated whisk
and trend a little bite cooler. Expect low temperatures to be a
degree or two cooler than Monday night`s.
Speaking of Tuesday night, this is when mid to upper level ridging
begins to chip in from the west. That sets the stage for raisin
temperatures going into the long term period...but they don`t look
to get high enough to get us into baking territory! Hopefully I
didn`t fudge the numbers while counting things up, but if you
counted 24 puns then you got em all and earned the title of "one
smart cookie"!
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Surface high pressure ridging into the area from the north at the start
of this period will gradually work its way eastward through the end
of the week. Northeast to east winds on Wednesday will become southeast
to south through the end of the week resulting in a warming trend. Moisture
levels will also be on the rise from this onshore flow, and rains will
come back into the forecast mainly from late Friday night through early
Sunday morning. The latest forecast has the next cold front moving across
the area during the day on Saturday. Cooler and drier weather accompanied
by breezy northwest to north winds can be expected Saturday night and
Sunday behind this front.
The high temperature trend has readings in the 60s on Wednesday increasing
to mainly 70s on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Behind the front on
Sunday, we`ll indicate highs in the 50s/60.
The low temperature trend has readings in the 40s Wednesday night increasing
to the 50s/60s on Thursday night and Friday night. Behind the front
on Saturday night, we`ll indicate lows in the 40s.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 453 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Mainly a wind forecast with VFR conditions prevailing throughout
the TAF period. Winds pick up out of the northwest initially
following the passage of a weak cold front then transitions to
northeasterly by the late morning hours. Winds become light and
variable after sunset.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023
Mainly light northeasterly winds and low seas will persist through at
least midweek, becoming southerly and increasing (seas rising too) by
the end of the week. Winds could occasionally flirt with caution speeds.
Look for a cold front (and associated showers/storms) to move off the
coast and through the area on Saturday with strong northwest winds
and building seas in its wake (advisories will likely be needed).
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 46 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 55 66 52 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42
It’s always amusing to me when UT or A&M shoots themselves in the foot. No way UT would’ve made the playoffs if they were in the SEC. Keep dreamin’ that Saban is ready to stop terrorizing everyone else in the conference.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6062
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
While the SPC has highlighted parts of SE #Texas for severe weather on Saturday... my gut is telling me that this threat will stay to our NE
Right now, timing of the trough doesn't line up with the instability axis... this could change ofc, but biggest threat looks east
#khou11
Right now, timing of the trough doesn't line up with the instability axis... this could change ofc, but biggest threat looks east
#khou11
Perfect Chamber of Commerce day. Mid 60s. Sunny. A bit of a breeze. Low DP.
Bonus: We have actual Fall coloring in our trees. Photos to follow later.
Yes, it’s been a nice fall considering the summer from hell. The early fall rains helped the trees a lot. Great colors (for Texas anyway). I just went for a lunchtime walk and it’s beautiful outside. What a perfect day.
Of course! Almost every event is off to our north or east. Especially when it comes to severe stuff.tireman4 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 11:20 am While the SPC has highlighted parts of SE #Texas for severe weather on Saturday... my gut is telling me that this threat will stay to our NE
Right now, timing of the trough doesn't line up with the instability axis... this could change ofc, but biggest threat looks east
#khou11
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2617
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6062
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 050850
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
A weak reinforcing frontal boundary/airmass will filter into the
area later today and tonight keeping the wx status quo through the
short term period. Variable high cirrus riding along the upper jet
will stream across the southern portion of the CWA today and
tonight. Surface high pressure moves off to the east Wednesday night
which will allow for a gradual modifying trend to begin. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
Going into Thursday, ridging aloft begins to nudge out to the east
as a mid/upper level trough approaches from the NW CONUS. At the
surface, high pressure is also off to our east leading to onshore
flow gradually increasing moisture heading into the end of the work
week. Last but not least we have an 850mb area of high pressure off
to our east, which induces southwesterly flow aloft (WAA) into the
weekend. All three of those will have an impact for what`s to come
on Saturday...but let`s talk about Thursday and Friday more first.
As the trough drifts southeastward, surface low pressure is
generated through lee cyclogenesis around the TX/OK panhandles on
Thursday night. The tightening pressure gradient enhances warm
air/moisture advection going into Friday. PW values reach the 1.1"-
1.4" range by late Thursday night (75th percentile: ~1.18"), so some
streamer showers will be possible around the coast beginning at this
timeframe. Temperatures peak on Friday with 850mb temperatures equal
to or greater than the 90th percentile, so expect to see high
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s along with breezy southerly
winds.
There is model consensus on the trough digging down through the Four
Corners region and pushing a cold front through "some time" on
Saturday, but as far as the timing of the front, how much the trough
deepens, the path of the surface low, and how quickly the surface
low deepens...not too much consensus there yet. The GFS is still the
quicker of the three long range deterministic models with a Saturday
morning FROPA. ECMWF and Canadian still show an afternoon FROPA,
which allows for daytime heating to help destabilize the atmosphere.
However, recall the 850mb flow being predominantly southwesterly
throughout the week...this leads to a fairly decent subsidence
inversion layer around 850mb-750mb. That`s not to say that storms
can`t overcome the cap given the lift along the frontal boundary
paired with a LLJ and being in the right entrance region of a jet
streak. There will be an axis of instability for storms to work with
along with plenty of shear if they can break through the cap. An
afternoon FROPA allows for a better opportunity at breaking the cap
through daytime heating and with two out of three long range models
still depicting that timing, it`s understandable that SPC has kept
parts of Southeast TX outlined in a 15% probability of severe
weather for Saturday.
Behind the front, northwesterly winds will be VERY breezy...possibly
enough for a Wind Advisory going into Saturday night. Temperatures
are much cooler behind the front as we go from highs in the low to
mid 70s on Saturday (this also depends on FROPA timing) to highs in
the upper 50s/low 60s on Sunday. Low temperatures on Saturday night
will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s, but Sunday night will be
the coldest of the period due to clear skies and light winds as
surface high pressure drifts overhead (max radiational cooling).
Expecting widespread overnight temperatures in the upper 30s/low
40s. With the 850mb high remaining overhead into midweek,
temperatures don`t look to climb too much. Only looking at highs in
the mid 60s with lows remaining mainly in the 40s early next week.
Even the upper quartiles of the NBM stay below the 70°F mark through
midweek, so a period of seasonal conditions looks to be in store.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
VFR for the next 30+ hours with just some cirrus passing overhead
(moreso closer to the coast and offshore). 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly winds and low seas
prevail through Wednesday. There is a brief window on early
Wednesday morning for winds to increase to the caution flag
threshold. Onshore flow returns on Thursday with winds gradually
increasing into Friday ahead of an approaching weather system. A
cold front along with showers and thunderstorms pushes through
the waters on Saturday with moderate northwesterly winds and
elevating seas in its wake. Mariners can expect Small Craft
Advisories to be in effect Saturday night into early Sunday.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 42 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 46 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 53 62 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 050850
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
A weak reinforcing frontal boundary/airmass will filter into the
area later today and tonight keeping the wx status quo through the
short term period. Variable high cirrus riding along the upper jet
will stream across the southern portion of the CWA today and
tonight. Surface high pressure moves off to the east Wednesday night
which will allow for a gradual modifying trend to begin. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
Going into Thursday, ridging aloft begins to nudge out to the east
as a mid/upper level trough approaches from the NW CONUS. At the
surface, high pressure is also off to our east leading to onshore
flow gradually increasing moisture heading into the end of the work
week. Last but not least we have an 850mb area of high pressure off
to our east, which induces southwesterly flow aloft (WAA) into the
weekend. All three of those will have an impact for what`s to come
on Saturday...but let`s talk about Thursday and Friday more first.
As the trough drifts southeastward, surface low pressure is
generated through lee cyclogenesis around the TX/OK panhandles on
Thursday night. The tightening pressure gradient enhances warm
air/moisture advection going into Friday. PW values reach the 1.1"-
1.4" range by late Thursday night (75th percentile: ~1.18"), so some
streamer showers will be possible around the coast beginning at this
timeframe. Temperatures peak on Friday with 850mb temperatures equal
to or greater than the 90th percentile, so expect to see high
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s along with breezy southerly
winds.
There is model consensus on the trough digging down through the Four
Corners region and pushing a cold front through "some time" on
Saturday, but as far as the timing of the front, how much the trough
deepens, the path of the surface low, and how quickly the surface
low deepens...not too much consensus there yet. The GFS is still the
quicker of the three long range deterministic models with a Saturday
morning FROPA. ECMWF and Canadian still show an afternoon FROPA,
which allows for daytime heating to help destabilize the atmosphere.
However, recall the 850mb flow being predominantly southwesterly
throughout the week...this leads to a fairly decent subsidence
inversion layer around 850mb-750mb. That`s not to say that storms
can`t overcome the cap given the lift along the frontal boundary
paired with a LLJ and being in the right entrance region of a jet
streak. There will be an axis of instability for storms to work with
along with plenty of shear if they can break through the cap. An
afternoon FROPA allows for a better opportunity at breaking the cap
through daytime heating and with two out of three long range models
still depicting that timing, it`s understandable that SPC has kept
parts of Southeast TX outlined in a 15% probability of severe
weather for Saturday.
Behind the front, northwesterly winds will be VERY breezy...possibly
enough for a Wind Advisory going into Saturday night. Temperatures
are much cooler behind the front as we go from highs in the low to
mid 70s on Saturday (this also depends on FROPA timing) to highs in
the upper 50s/low 60s on Sunday. Low temperatures on Saturday night
will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s, but Sunday night will be
the coldest of the period due to clear skies and light winds as
surface high pressure drifts overhead (max radiational cooling).
Expecting widespread overnight temperatures in the upper 30s/low
40s. With the 850mb high remaining overhead into midweek,
temperatures don`t look to climb too much. Only looking at highs in
the mid 60s with lows remaining mainly in the 40s early next week.
Even the upper quartiles of the NBM stay below the 70°F mark through
midweek, so a period of seasonal conditions looks to be in store.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
VFR for the next 30+ hours with just some cirrus passing overhead
(moreso closer to the coast and offshore). 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023
Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly winds and low seas
prevail through Wednesday. There is a brief window on early
Wednesday morning for winds to increase to the caution flag
threshold. Onshore flow returns on Thursday with winds gradually
increasing into Friday ahead of an approaching weather system. A
cold front along with showers and thunderstorms pushes through
the waters on Saturday with moderate northwesterly winds and
elevating seas in its wake. Mariners can expect Small Craft
Advisories to be in effect Saturday night into early Sunday.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 42 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 46 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 53 62 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5371
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Gotta love it when folks are writing off winter here because of this mild period we are having, over on storm2k, people are so comical, ill never understand that lol
Yep, happens every year.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 9:52 am Gotta love it when folks are writing off winter here because of this mild period we are having, over on storm2k, people are so comical, ill never understand that lol
There's a front on Friday, followed by below normal temps.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 9:52 am Gotta love it when folks are writing off winter here because of this mild period we are having, over on storm2k, people are so comical, ill never understand that lol
Nothing frigid yet, but I would look closer to Christmas and beyond.
The Canadian says - have a taste:
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2617
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
It’s just a microcosm of society. Emotion over logic.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 9:52 am Gotta love it when folks are writing off winter here because of this mild period we are having, over on storm2k, people are so comical, ill never understand that lol
Team #NeverSummer
Any idea on the weather for Friday and Saturday? We have a Christmas outdoor concert for both days, and are trying to make a decision. Thanks.
Friday - mid temps will be mild, partly cloudy.
Saturday features a FROPA, a chance of rain. FROPA will move through later with higher rain chances in HOU than CLL. The front will blast through with windy conditions behind it and much colder - a 30°F drop. Sunday and beyond look like high 50s and 60s. A little cooler than normal, but seasonable.
-
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