wxman57 wrote:I doubt that tonight's model runs will shed any light on what may happen next week with the Arctic air. We'll have to wait another 3-4 days for that. By then, the Arctic air either will or won't be in NW Canada where it has a chance to come down, and we can get a look at how cold it is.
Remember what wxman said ealrier tonight. As one hoping for some memorable and perhaps historic weather next week, I certainly will.
Yea but at the same time the GFS should be continuing with the pattern and not deviating like this. I am probably thinking about it too much and it is probably just a fluke.
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The GFS alwayss does stuff like this. what we've learned is that IF** the airmass is as cold as predicted it would be very hard for it to get pushed east, simply due to its density and gravity. If you look at the run you posted you still see that the "monster" 1060 ridge is still way up in northern Canada. I'm sure that the fact that this pattern favors more of a stepping down into colder values, rather then one strong surge... will throw even more kinks in the models.
The 00z doesn't make much sense to me. I wouldn't put much stock into it. I haven't really looked at everything because I am busy getting ready for the airport in the morning. One run doesn't mean squat. If it is 5 runs and the Euro agrees, then you can say 'well, things are deviating.' That's just me though. I haven't been in the biz that long and I am young. 2 years ago, I had predicted a severe arctic outbreak like this---thinking the air would come straight south. Well it didn't pan out that way and I got in trouble. So let's just wait and see. Certainly you guys didn't think there would be NO fluctuations between now and the event, did you?
Well think of the models this way through this coming sunday night, which is just prior to the event, there are 20 runs left of the gfs and 10 runs of the ecmwf left to browse through. Plenty of time for fluxuations and maybe even trends!
vci_guy2003 wrote:So does this mean no more record breaking cold ??
REMEMBER! This was just two model runs, do not treat this as a trend or consistency. Give it a few more runs, at least until tomorrow at this time. Saturday will be judgment day for this system.
Also, in set-ups like this, it has been said that this is a "stepping down" process. Maybe this initial surge won't be the strongest one, who knows what the rest of January and early February hold.
It looks folks were not impressed with some of the overnight developments. I see a lot of typical modeling issues concerning dense very cold air at this range. The models tend to move these dense air masses to slowly coming S and move it out way to fast to the E and that is exactly what the region NWS offices are thinking as well...and now the Euro is suggesting some moisture with the front...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
426 AM CST WED JAN 5 2011
.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET WAS CONTINUING OVER SE TX THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER CUT OFF LOW WEST OF SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK AND SHEAR OFF AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AS IT MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLDER
AIR MASS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIKED HOW THE NAM HANDLED THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN PREFERRED THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF FOR
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AND FOR THE COLD AIR OUTBREAK FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE FOG AND DRIZZLE
OCCURRING FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LATER THIS MORNING. FOR NOW THE FOG HAS BEEN PATCHY DENSE
IN ISOLATED SPOTS. AS NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATER...THE FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO END IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING PERIOD.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NICE FAIR WEATHER DAYS. ON
FRIDAY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP WARM THE
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS SETTING UP A PATTERN
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE TX. STILL NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING GIVEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT
FOR NOW THINK THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL POSSIBLY BE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH...STRONG
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FOLLOWING THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE ECMWF MOVES AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY. SE TX LOOKS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF THE COLD
AIR WITH THE ECMWF COLDER THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE MODEL HAS
BACKED OFF A BIT AND MODIFIED THE SYSTEM WARMER. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF OUTPUT...THE MEX...AND THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
Dallas/Ft Worth:
.EXTENDED/COLD WX NEXT WEEK...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND THERE
HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL GET AS COLD AS
SOME OF THE MORE SEVERE ARCTIC INTRUSIONS OF YEARS PAST. LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EXPECTED OSCILLATIONS WITHIN
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
RIDGING OVER ALASKA WILL BUILD SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AND BECOME
PARTIALLY BLOCKED AS TO ALLOW A MASSIVE CHUNK OF COLD AIR TO HEAD
SOUTH INTO THE CONTINENTAL US. THE FIRST SHOT OF THIS COLD AIR WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS AS TO WHETHER THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SURGES OF COLD AIR.
EXTENSIVE ANALYSIS OF ARCHIVED UPPER AIR DATA FROM PREVIOUS RECORD
BREAKING COLD EVENTS INCLUDING THE SEVERE COLD SNAPS OF 1983 AND
1989 YIELD A COUPLE OF INTERESTING DETAILS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ARE THE TEMPERATURES AT THE SOURCE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR.
GENERALLY... ARCTIC INTRUSIONS INTO NORTH TEXAS BEGIN WITH EXTREMELY
COLD AIR PARCELS WITHIN THE 800 TO 500MB LAYER LOCATED OVER
NORTHWEST/ NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THESE PARCELS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE AND WARM AS THEY HEAD SOUTH BUT ARE USUALLY STILL VERY COLD
BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE SURFACE. IN AT LEAST A HALF-DOZEN MAJOR
COLD SNAPS INCLUDING 1983/1989/1996...THE 500MB TEMPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST CANADA WERE TYPICALLY IN THE -45 TO -50C RANGE...AND 700MB
TEMPS WERE TYPICALLY IN THE -30 TO -35C RANGE. THE RECORD COLD OF
1983 HAD A SAMPLED 500MB TEMP OF -50C IN NORTHERN MONTANA. AS OF
NOW...NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF HAS TEMPERATURES THAT COLD
ACROSS CANADA. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ARE IN THE
-10 TO -15C RANGE WHICH DEFINITELY SUPPORTS COLD TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE...HOWEVER IN THE EXTREME EVENTS...H85 TEMPS WERE IN THE -17
TO -20C RANGE WITH A FRIGID -24C AT OKC IN 1983. GIVEN THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS
WILL NOT BE HISTORICALLY COLD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.OF COURSE THIS
ASSUMES A PERFECT PROG OF THE MODEL TEMPERATURES.THE OTHER CONCERN
IS THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER ALASKA. THE LATEST RUNS
CONTINUE TO BUILD AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER AK THEN HAVE HAD
SOME TROUBLE AS TO WHETHER IS WILL MOVE NORTH OR WEST INTO SIBERIA.
THIS RIDGE POSITION HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN US. TYPICALLY WE LIKE TO SEE A STRONG TROF POSITIONED OVER
THE WEST/SW US WHICH DOES NOT MOVE TO KEEP THE COLD AIR FLOWING
SOUTHWARD. THESE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 10-15 DAY
PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AS OF NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONG FRONT ON MONDAY/END OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD/ AND WILL INTRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES WITHIN THE
FINER DETAILS EXIST THIS FAR OUT AMONG NOT ONLY THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE BUT AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.SEVERAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE RIDGE/TROF POSITION THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AND KEEP THE COLD AIR COMING SO IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO
FINE TUNE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WHAT MAKES THIS
SYSTEM SIGNIFICANT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THERE TO BE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS THE
DURATION OF SUB-FREEZING AIR THAT CAN HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS TO THE
REGION VERSUS JUST THE TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES.
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW AN
AREA OF QPF ALONG THE FRONT ON MONDAY LIKELY IN AN AREA OF STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SQUEEZING OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPS
ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW...BUT IT IS THE ONLY MODEL DOING SO
WITH SUCH VIGOR ATTM. BEING 7 DAYS OUT...WILL LEAVE THE 10 POPS IN
AND SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS SO
COLD ANY MOISTURE COULD CREATE WINTRY PRECIPITATION BUT AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THINGS WILL BE VERY DRY. THESE DETAILS WILL BE WORKED
OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
San Angelo:
.LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR THAT IS FORECAST TO IMPACT MUCH
OF THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW INTERESTING
DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. TRANSIENT WAVES IN THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES INTO WEST CENTRAL TX
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY YET WX CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PLEASANT BOTH
DAYS. THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR TO THE LOW/MID 60S TO THE
SOUTH. ON FRIDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S WITH A
FEW 70S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CONCHO RIVER.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE QUASI STATIONARY UPPER LOW SPINNING OF THE CA COAST
APPROACHES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING AS IT MOVES ACROSS TX. SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA SETTING THE STAGE FOR
DECENT RAIN CHANCES. THE STRONG QG FORCING APPEARS TO BE CENTERED
AROUND 00Z SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THUS...POPS ARE HIGHEST HERE WITH
50/60 POPS ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COOL
EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS RATHER COOL ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS
WERE LOWERED TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE AREAWIDE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY...POPS WERE INCLUDED NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM JAYTON...TO ABILENE...TO BROWNWOOD. THIS WOULD BE MORE A
STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. TEMPS ON SUNDAY HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED AS SURFACE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. NOW TO THE TOUGH PART OF THE
FORECAST...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE SPEED OF THE
INEVITABLE ARCTIC INTRUSION AND CONTINUE TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH ON
ITS INTENSITY. THE 05/00Z GFS NOW DELAYS THE COLD FRONT UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER...BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. THE DGEX IS FASTER STILL BUT
IN MY OPINION REMAINS TOO SLOW. MY CONCERN IS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW THE COLD
AIR TO RUSH SOUTH FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR MAY BE
SLIGHTLY DELAYED BUT COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLIER RATHER
THAN LATER. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE TX COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A COASTAL TROF THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. THE COLD AIR IS PROGGED
TO BE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ARKLATEX REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MY
THINKING IS AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...THE
EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. I ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF I-20 FOR MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK
IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH. TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN
THE 30S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THESE HIGHS TEMPS COULD BE RATHER GENEROUS
IF THE FRONT DOES INDEED ARRIVE EARLY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERN ZONES EXPECTED TO SEE MID/UPPER 30S
FOR HIGHS.
THE BLOCKING HIGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER AK THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THE PATTERN SHOULD CHANCE LITTLE WITH
MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LEE CYCLONE BY MIDWEEK THAT SCOURS OUT THE
COLD DOME OVER WEST CENTRAL TX BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT
THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE LOOKS RATHER WEEK. IT WOULD
TAKE A QUITE STRONG SHORTWAVE TO ERODE THIS AIRMASS THAT QUICKLY.
Norman, OK:
SOME WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR MOVES SETTLES
INTO THE REGION. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP
LIKELY FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE
NOW SHOWING THAT THE SFC HIGH AND COLD AIR MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
CAUSING A SLIGHT WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... BEFORE THAT
HAPPENS TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK.
Dodge City:
DAYS 3-7...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS, WHICH
HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN THE LAST FEW DAYS ARE NOW IN MORE
DISAGREEMENT. THE 00Z GFS SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE 00Z
GEM AND 00Z ECWMF AS IT SLOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE CONSIDERABLY.
THIS RESULTS IN 5 TO 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
CONSIDERED THIS IS A MODEL PERTURBATION AND DID NOT MAKE THIS
DRASTIC CHANGE. AS A RESULT, LEFT TEMPERATURES AS IS. I DID MAKE A
FEW CHANGES TO POPS TO GET US MORE IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS AND THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT TO KANSAS AND WILL REMAIN SOUTH
INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WHAT WILL GIVE US A FAIRLY GOOD
CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION IS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY. HAVE LOW BALLED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS
SINCE THIS IS FAR OFF IN THE EXTENDED, HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE A SNOW
ADVISORY AMOUNT EVENT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DECENT SNOW
AMOUNTS. WE WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 250 HPA JET SO
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE NEGATIVE WIND
CHILLS IN THE EXTENDED, AND PROBABLY WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT
SOME POINT AS WELL.
Lubbock:
.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS ARCTIC AIR
BLAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
TRANSVERSE THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LIFT
BEING GENERATED FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE BEGINS
TO AFFECT THE AREA. A CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ON SHORE FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALL MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT THIS SYSTEM OPENING UP
BEFORE IT MOVES OVER THE AREA THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW STRONG THE WAVE WILL BE ONCE IT REACHES WEST
TEXAS. MODELS RANGE FROM THE NAM BEING THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC FOR QPF
WHILE THE LATEST ECM RUN DEPICTS A STRONGER AND SHARPER WAVE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN LIQUID FORM ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH
INTO THE EVENING THERE COULD BE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH LIFT
SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN AREAS. STILL BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IS
WARRANTED FROM THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
SURFACE RIDGING IS NOW PROGGED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING ALL OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGER COLD AIR PUSH WILL BE FROM A FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY EVENING. A 1040MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT COLDER TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE UPSLOPE
FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS CLOUDY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
Shreveport:
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE HAS DONE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DONE AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL BOLD ON
RAIN FORECAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING
SATURDAY NIGHT. I DID NOT PLACE THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE I30 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD
WHERE WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD...AS A
STRONG ARCTIC RIDGE SURGES INTO THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY. AND
DEPENDING ON MOISTURE WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE POP NUMBERS ARE STILL LOW ATTM...SO HELD OFF
ON MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE UNTIL I SEE MORE CONFIDENT
NUMBERS
Midland/Odessa:
MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...DROPPING A MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...FOR WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE EXTENDED. LONG RANGE
MODELS ADVERTISE GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THRU...KEEPING THE AREA SOCKED IN THRU WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE LOOKS
TOO WARM FOR THIS SCENARIO...SO WE/LL STAY WELL BELOW MACHINE
NUMBERS FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
Austin/San Antonio:
AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
A DENSE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND ENTER TEXAS ON MONDAY.
THIS AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS AROUND 10 DEGREES TOO WARM. THE GFS
TRADITIONALLY HAS A HARD TIME WILL SHALLOW ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ACROSS
TEXAS DUE TO THE MODELS POOR RESOLUTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
Corpus Christi:
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
DROPPED EXPECTED MAX TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE REGION. MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS A PIECE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COULD
BE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. SHOWED A TREND FOR SLIGHT COOLING
FROM SUNDAY. THEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS. COULD SEE SOME THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD
FOR THE AREA WITH READINGS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S.
Brownsville:
.LONG TERM...6 PM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEST COAST MID
LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND WILL MOVE ACROSS TX ON SAT AND
SAT NIGHT INCREASING POPS A BIT. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED TO THE NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TX AND WILL ACCORDINGLY
MAINTAIN ONLY SOME 20 TO 30 % POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AFTER THIS TROUGH EXITS THE REGION
BROAD MID LEVEL TROFFING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THIS WILL USHER
THROUGH A FAIRLY COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD RESULTING IN A PRETTY DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPS NEXT TUES.
MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF IN THE 3 TO
7 DAY RANGE LOOKS REASAONABLE AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS LOOKS GOOD AND WILL GO CLOSE TO
THE LATEST MEX RUN THROUGH MON AND WILL GO BELOW MEX GUIDANCE ON
TUES AFTER THE FRONT.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Overnight model runs are definitely a lot warmer than previous runs. Only one freeze next week (28F) here followed by a few cold nights the week after next. However, we're getting into the window (5-8 days out) where the models tend to have a very difficult time handling such outbreaks, so this is to be expected. We really just need to wait another 3 days or so until the cold air is actually IN Canada to have a better idea what COULD move south to Texas.
00Z GFS meteogram is below. I suspect it'll be colder than indicated in these meteograms.
Well this is quite a turn of events here. I mean both the GFS and Euro have backed WAY off on the intensity of the airmass progged to come down. Some say that in the 5-7 day range the models tend to have issues. Whether the models "find" the airmass in the next few days or not remains to be seen. I'm not convinced that they will though. If things continue in the direction they are going now, there will be absolutely no record cold nor a prolonged freeze. Something to watch. Okay, off to the airport.
I still believe
