Hurricane Beryl

[mcheer23]

EPS is more south (like 00Z was) because it shows Beryl weaker....also the same reason why HWRF is more south.
Its going to really depend on how much land interaction Beryl has with the Yucatan and where it comes off.

[sswinney]

Still a CAT 3 and starting to show some impressive cold cloud tops around the center again. While pressure has increased and winds have come down, could it be starting to strengthen again?

[Andrew]

EPS is more south (like 00Z was) because it shows Beryl weaker....also the same reason why HWRF is more south.
Its going to really depend on how much land interaction Beryl has with the Yucatan and where it comes off.

Exactly. The biggest factor to the track here is intensity of Beryl once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. No longer are we strictly relying on trade winds for steering and a deeper storm will feel the influence of the trough over the Central U.S.

[Andrew]

Still a CAT 3 and starting to show some impressive cold cloud tops around the center again. While pressure has increased and winds have come down, could it be starting to strengthen again?

According to the 1PM advisory it's still a CAT 4 with 140mph winds

[AtascocitaWX]

Looks like she is back strengthing. Man.. what a storm.

[sambucol]

Looks like she is back strengthing. Man.. what a storm.

Expect a track adjustment now?

[tireman4]

Looks like she is back strengthing. Man.. what a storm.

Expect a track adjustment now?

That would be a Mcheer or Andrew question..for me, I am not sure...

[DoctorMu]

Folks. I would not be confident of a path yet.

Keep in mind: Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
Hurricane Beryl is still dominating

[DoctorMu]

Looks like she is back strengthing. Man.. what a storm.

I never expected anything less of Beryl.

[brazoriatx]

She isn't going away easily I know that!

[DoctorMu]

Whether Beryl is offshore or onshore, I expect her path to bend upwards near the coastline.

[sambucol]

Whether Beryl is offshore or onshore, I expect her path to bend upwards near the coastline.

Agree

[DoctorMu]

Here ya go. We're getting too focused on landfall site re Beryl's impact on the western Gulf coast. He's going to be a rain maker with persistent tropical storm winds.

[tireman4]

Not only is Beryl still maintaining upshear convection and looking far less lopsided than it did earlier, its eye actually appears to be clearing out again... and appears to have taken a rightward jog a little closer to Jamaica than forecast. pic.twitter.com/a0VPzw5Tt9
-- Tomer Burg (@burgwx) July 3, 2024

The low-level northerly flow around the western side of Beryl’s circulation is getting partially blocked by the mountains on Jamaica. Net effect is to drag the TC vortex slightly northward as it approaches from the east & vis versa when the TC exits to the west
-- Eric Webb (@webberweather) July 3, 2024

I'd recently been wondering the same about Ivan - with the caveat that I hadn't given much thought as to why it had a jog around Jamaica beforehand, I'm now wondering if it was in fact Jamaica's topography that had a temporary effect of dragging the vortex northward pic.twitter.com/8yM43i5MU5
-- Tomer Burg (@burgwx) July 3, 2024

[brazoriatx]

Here ya go. We're getting too focused on landfall site re Beryl's impact on the western Gulf coast. He's going to be a rain maker with persistent tropical storm winds.

This far up the coast? Didn't think that would be possible if he's all the way in north mexico or south Texas. Wouldn't expect much of a impact up this way?

[tireman4]

Tomer Burg
@burgwx
·
15m
I also wonder if there's frictional convergence that's helping to tighten up & strengthen the vortex - we don't have recon in but I wouldn't be surprised if its intensity has remained constant if not strengthened a bit

[tireman4]

One factor that may explain the hurricane's resilience in the face of increasing shear is that its powerful outflow seems to have deflected the UL westerlies that were impinging on the storm. Compare these images of satellite-estimated upper level winds today six hours apart pic.twitter.com/6M6XRXscyG
-- Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) July 3, 2024

[tireman4]

Jeremy DeHart
@JeremyDeHart53d
·
7m
#Beryl is still packing a punch. We were stuck in the soup all day. Every radar blip in the northern half was rough. Went from an open eyewall to fully closed as it approached Jamaica with a really nasty NE eyewall. Got hail the last two passes. This thing is a fighter.
@53rdWRS

[DoctorMu]

Not only is Beryl still maintaining upshear convection and looking far less lopsided than it did earlier, its eye actually appears to be clearing out again... and appears to have taken a rightward jog a little closer to Jamaica than forecast. pic.twitter.com/a0VPzw5Tt9
-- Tomer Burg (@burgwx) July 3, 2024

The low-level northerly flow around the western side of Beryl’s circulation is getting partially blocked by the mountains on Jamaica. Net effect is to drag the TC vortex slightly northward as it approaches from the east & vis versa when the TC exits to the west
-- Eric Webb (@webberweather) July 3, 2024

I'd recently been wondering the same about Ivan - with the caveat that I hadn't given much thought as to why it had a jog around Jamaica beforehand, I'm now wondering if it was in fact Jamaica's topography that had a temporary effect of dragging the vortex northward pic.twitter.com/8yM43i5MU5
-- Tomer Burg (@burgwx) July 3, 2024

Slingshot north. "Shake and bake!"

Like the OG wing-T formation in college football, Beryl is hugging the Jamaican mountains to put fear into the shear. TUTT looked weaker today.

Beryl is bad to the bone. The eye looks much healthier now.

[Stratton20]

Looks like the eye may just barely stay off shore or just scrape the coast of jamaica, if that happens, we may not see much disruption of the core at all