Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Mr. T]

Ok, Plymouth State is showing Euro, and unless I'm way off, that is well South of BRO...

It has already made landfall by that point.

See above post ^^^^

[biggerbyte]

Ahem! Cough! Cough! Said the invisible man.

Pesky models... I'll be nice and leave it at that.

Trends are not looking good ATM for folks in Texas and LA.
I want the track into Mexico back. That is not as clear cut as of this hour.
Folks, don't assume anything based on what these models are telling us.
It is what it is. I've already got all my supplies, and I did not have to fight the crowd with limited store stocks either.
What you are most likely hearing on tv is based on models, so this is what we get from that.
Mexico may still be the target, but it just might not be too.

Get those supplies before the folks on the tv sound the old last minute alarm and everyone is grabbing what they can get from the stores. You can always save it for later use if Alex surprises us again.

[Paul]

Tyler, the EURO shift is a few hundred miles thats extreme when you consider the last 6 runs have been into MX....You saw the all other model shift north tonight...trend? sure looks like it...

[Andrew]

I don't think anyone was expecting the model to show a Corpus hit but it does show a shift north. If it continues and meets with the other models we have a problem. The thing that is scary is it is starting to follow suite of the other models which showed a big shift north.

[Mr. T]

Tyler, the EURO shift is a few hundred miles thats extreme when you consider the last 6 runs have been into MX....You saw the all other model shift north tonight...trend? sure looks like it...

Yeah, it is definitely a trend north tonight, as basically all models are north of the NHC track. However, in reference to the CMC and GFS, it is not that extreme.

[Paul]

I don't think anyone was expecting the model to show a Corpus hit but it does show a shift north. If it continues and meets with the other models we have a problem. The thing that is scary is it is starting to follow suite of the other models which showed a big shift north.

you cant ignore the GFS any longer IMO....spurious lows or not the ridge aint holding or the models would have not shifted....

I think the 2 camps are coming together in the middle...Brownsville to central LA will soon be in the cone...IMO....

[Paul]

Tyler, the EURO shift is a few hundred miles thats extreme when you consider the last 6 runs have been into MX....You saw the all other model shift north tonight...trend? sure looks like it...

Ok, benefit of animated loop and everything, but it is still well South of the US border. Glass, formerly 41/43rds full optimistic on no TC in Texas next week still 27/32nds full.

somehow I knew you were going to say that.....

[perk]

Tyler, the EURO shift is a few hundred miles thats extreme when you consider the last 6 runs have been into MX....You saw the all other model shift north tonight...trend? sure looks like it...

Rock i have to agree,that Euro shift is not as insignificant as some are trying to make it out to be.

[Andrew]

I don't think anyone was expecting the model to show a Corpus hit but it does show a shift north. If it continues and meets with the other models we have a problem. The thing that is scary is it is starting to follow suite of the other models which showed a big shift north.

you cant ignore the GFS any longer IMO....spurious lows or not the ridge aint holding or the models would have not shifted....

I think the 2 camps are coming together in the middle...Brownsville to central LA will soon be in the cone...IMO....

Also here is the Euro 24h out:



First off that could still be too far south on the track it is going now and second that shows a good track nw which is a direct result of the ridge breaking down.

[biggerbyte]

Paul is right... This is a huge change, and probably just the beginning for the Euro, as it could continue to gradualy shift more north with each run. Let's see what the next two runs say before getting too excited... No?

Me, well i'm going to be watching the radars and satellite animations to see what is actually going on.

[Mr. T]

Ok, benefit of animated loop and everything, but it is still well South of the US border. Glass, formerly 41/43rds full optimistic on no TC in Texas next week still 27/32nds full.

I agree with you on this.

I could see this shifting a bit more to the north, maybe even the TX/MX border, but after that weakness develops over Texas it closes fast and upper heights build up quickly after the departure of the trough... I think this thing will gain some latitude once out into the open Gulf thanks to said weakness, but will bend back to the west towards Mexico as the influence of the upper ridge across the South takes hold again.

However, I will still not discount a possible strike to Texas, but I think it is unlikely at this time.

[Paul]

I agree Andrew and i will be first in line to say I am a EURO hugger but a shift like that is very significant....You have most all of the models shift north with even the crappy NAM and BAMMS tonight....

[Mr. T]

I am impressed by the 6Z BAM models, using 0Z GFS data, showing landfall no further North than 22ºN.
DSHIP shows almost no difference over the Yucatan than old fashioned land doesn't exist SHIPs...

The NHC doesn't use the BAMM models in this area of the tropics, so it's pretty irrelevant what they do...

[Andrew]

I am impressed by the 6Z BAM models, using 0Z GFS data, showing landfall no further North than 22ºN.
DSHIP shows almost no difference over the Yucatan than old fashioned land doesn't exist SHIPs...

Lets see how it looks tomorrow if Alex is on a Northwest track already then those models will already be busted.

[biggerbyte]

Tyler, the EURO shift is a few hundred miles thats extreme when you consider the last 6 runs have been into MX....You saw the all other model shift north tonight...trend? sure looks like it...

Rock i have to agree,that Euro shift is not as insignificant as some are trying to make it out to be.

The Euro has been showing south, even a few hundred miles south of the border, and it has not been in favor of anything north up until tonight. As Paul has stated, it is by quite a jog at that. I think that is pretty significant, and it very well could be the start of a trend. Not impressed? Just wait another 24 hours.

[Paul]

I am impressed by the 6Z BAM models, using 0Z GFS data, showing landfall no further North than 22ºN.
DSHIP shows almost no difference over the Yucatan than old fashioned land doesn't exist SHIPs...

The NHC doesn't use the BAMM models in this area of the tropics, so it's pretty irrelevant what they do...

Yeah Tyler the BAMMS are pretty worthless over 20N...,,,well thats what WXMN57 told us anyway....

[Mr. T]

I'm off to sleepy time

I still don't think the shift north by the Euro is really that significant as some of you suggest, but I suppose time never lies. We'll see what tommorow brings....

[Andrew]

Okay guys from tonight's total mayhem I think a couple of things can be taken from these runs. First off overall there is a further north consensus but we need to also realize that this is one set of runs. It could be that during the 12z run that things go south again. If they stay north or continue to go farther north then I think the models are zoning in. I think tomm will be very telling and also while we are examining models so much we shouldn't forget to look at the movement of the storm now because a lot of the time the models are being made or broken from the immediate movement of the storm.

[Andrew]

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[Scott747]

Well the latest disco will get everyone's attention.

Explanation for the changes in the GFS runs was sound and reasonable.