JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[MRG93415]

So if the center comes ashore in Matagorda, does that mean we will get less rain?

[DPD]

Srain I have a suggestion. During weather events you should pin a thred for radar and satellite feeds so you don’t have to keep posting them when you are busy and that way we can find them quickly instead of looking for them on previse pages or going to other sites to get them. Snapshots could be posted for historical value to look at later or if they lose power. Just my thoughts, Steve stay safe. You will have a busy day tomorrow! Ok back to lurking! LOL
Dan

[nuby3]

if it comes in at Matagorda we will get more rain than if it comes in farther west.

[Paul Robison]

Uh-oh!



Is the whole city of Houston in the yellow? I can't tell.

[Scott747]

The center appears further north than anticipated. What Scott said is probably the best estimate for center location right now.

That might just put an initial track towards Sargent. Hard to yet what the real motion is until they declare a center.

For those wondering the NHC goes by what are called breakpoints on advisories - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints/

[jeff]

NO upgrade at 800pm...might as well wait until it is inland now!

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve
Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area of
low pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texas
coast indicate that the center has become better defined since
earlier today. If these trends continue, advisories will be
initiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds with
the low are near 50 mph. Interests in and along the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system as it moves northwestward toward the Texas coast. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Andrew]

Either way we should receive plenty of rain. A Matagorda hit would mean more rain here compared to a Corpus or Port O Connor hit. Either way though depending on where banding setsup will be key for rainfall totals.

[srainhoutx]

06152015 2351Z recon_AF304-03BBA-INVEST.png

[Andrew]

The center appears further north than anticipated. What Scott said is probably the best estimate for center location right now.

That might just put an initial track towards Sargent. Hard to yet what the real motion is until they declare a center.

For those wondering the NHC goes by what are called breakpoints on advisories - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints/

Long range radar isn't much help either. As it stands right now little movement seems more apparent.

[Scott747]

There wasn't going to be an upgrade until they made at least this second pass. I assumed the 21z time was a 3pm liftoff which would have given them plenty of time to get enough obs before the 7pm outlook.

[sambucol]

I was watching Frank Billingsley just now, and he said winds have been established at 50 mph with a closed center. He said to expect within the next hour for it to be officially named TS Bill.

[davidiowx]

NO upgrade at 800pm...might as well wait until it is inland now!

This is blasphemy!

I mean seriously. What in the world are they doing not naming this storm yet. There have been so many worse looking storms named. Smh

[unome]

speechless... http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 25.65,3000

[srainhoutx]

06162015 0001Z recon_AF304-03BBA-INVEST.png

[Katdaddy]

I am very surprised it was not upgraded to TS Bill. 50MPH winds found by recon.

[srainhoutx]

Center is going to be a bit N and W,

[davidiowx]

Center is going to be a bit N and W,

So that will take the center inland right around the Matagorda area? Is it possible it is further N if it continues to strengthen or will it be inland before that can happen? It looks like it may have slowed a bit but my eyes could be deceiving me.

[tireman4]

I am very surprised it was not upgraded to TS Bill. 50MPH winds found by recon.

I am beyond speechless. The NHC ( and I love them) are being hoisted by their own petard. What I mean is their own guidelines of a defined center of circulation before naming is their own undoing.

[srainhoutx]

Good wind shift 27.067N/94.23W