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ITEM:
From the SPC, Day 4-8

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100924
SPC AC 100924

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR DEPICTION OF LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINING POSITIVELY TILTED AND EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN U.S.
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ORIENTATION WILL
NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT WARM SECTOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF STATES...THOUGH AN
UNFORESEEN SPEED MAX/SHORT-WAVE COULD INDUCE WEAK WAVE ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN POST-FRONTAL AND
ELEVATED IN NATURE GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT THIS PERIOD.

ITEM:

Off topic----

Can anyone on this message board tell me if anyone in Houston sells weather balloons? I have a crush on a weather girl, and with Valentine's day coming up, well, you know.....

I like it. Better than 80 degrees and humid.

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Cold moist pattern to establish over the area Sunday-mid week.

Gulf moisture will begin to return to the region today behind the Wednesday storm system. Should see an increase in cloud cover by this afternoon and the short term meso models are suggesting possibly a few showers drifting inland off the western Gulf. Better moisture advection gets going on Saturday as surface low pressure develops on an incoming front from the north. Expect an increase in showers across the area, but strong capping will preclude any thunderstorms. Could have to deal with a bout of dense sea fog along the coast if dewpoints creep above cold nearshore water temperatures tonight and on Saturday.

Cold front enters the area late Saturday and added lift from this boundary will produce a line of mainly showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Capping looks to hold strong until the boundary is able to lift the surface parcel enough to break through the warm layer. Instability is lacking and what meager amounts that are available are elevated, so a few thunderstorms will be possible, but no severe weather is expected. Front should exit off the coast by 600am Sunday morning.

Strong cold front will usher cold air into the region with temperatures in the 60’s ahead of the front falling quickly into the 40’s and 50’s behind the boundary. Additionally, the boundary will be shallow, extending vertically only 2000-4000 ft which allows 850mb winds to remain out of the south and southwest and pump Gulf moisture up and over the top of the cold surface dome…overrunning. This pattern supports a slow gradual lifting of the air mass over the region and expect widespread light to at times moderate rainfall to develop in the post frontal air mass Sunday-Monday. Rainfall amounts from Saturday-Monday will average .25-.50 of an inch with isolated totals of 1.0-1.5 inches.

Forecast for the middle to end of next week is more questionable as the ECMWF model closes off an upper level low over the SW US while the GFS is much more progressive and open with a trough shearing out across the plains. GFS would be a much drier pattern while the ECMWF would produce much wetter conditions. For now will continue with the overrunning cloud cover Tuesday-Thursday, but cut rain chances into the 30-40% range for this period and await better model agreement before going wetter or drier. Temperatures will remain cold through the entire period (Sun-Thurs) with highs in the 40’s/50’s and lows in the 30’s/40’s.

January 8-9 Rainfall Totals:
It should be noted that the start of 2013 has been extremely wet across the region with many sites running rainfall surpluses of 2-4 inches and a few sites have already reached their monthly January rainfall totals.


BUSH IAH: 1.60
Hobby: 1.98
Galveston: 1.92
College Station: 4.10
Conroe: 3.57
Huntsville: 2.13
Tomball: 4.29
Sugar Land: 2.26
Pearland: 3.09
Angleton: 2.35
Palacios: 2.28
League City: 2.79
Bellville: 2.45
Brenham: 3.11
Crockett: 3.13
Edna: 1.13
El Campo: 1.98
Freeport: 2,61
Katy: 4.64
Madisonville: 4.51
Matagorda: 2.40
Richmond: 3.02
Wharton: 3.53
Port Bolivar: 5.00
Fulshear: 4.27
Snook: 4.15
Caldwell: 4.09
Bayou Vista: 3.44
1SE Edna: 2.82
Victoria: 2.03
Rockport: 1.86
Austin: 2.49
San Antonio: 2.53
Temple: 3.20


Rainfall for the Past 7 days (From the West Gulf River Forecast Center):

Looks like some funderstorms out in advance of the approaching front.

12Z GFS certainly brings some more cold air out of Canada this weekend and across Houston early next week, as indicated in the first meteogram below. Highs in the upper 40s Mon/Tue with a possible light freeze next Tuesday morning. Gradual warm-up to follow. Another cold shot the following week (second graphic below) around the 21st and a possible light freeze the 23rd. No indications of any extreme cold across SE TX.

The GFS drives the cold air more to the east and southeast across the Great Lakes and NE U.S. Of course, there is always the chance that GFS isn't handling the pattern correctly next week. The Canadian has been indicating more of the cold air would move southward. The Euro takes the coldest air southeastward across the Great Lakes and not southward to Texas. One thing I don't see for Houston in the next 2 weeks is any significant warm period.

Is it any wonder why depression explodes during the winter. I can think of nothing worse than high's in the 40's, cloudy and wet.
Bring on Spring already.

Lol, what did I tell you guys? We're already inching towards the mid 70's only a matter of time before we hit 80 degrees. Bring on the 100 degree weather. Winter has been canceled for us here in SE TX, unfortunately.

Edit: Accuweather has a high of 80 for tomorrow! Ha!

JackCruz wrote:Lol, what did I tell you guys? We're already inching towards the mid 70's only a matter of time before we hit 80 degrees. Bring on the 100 degree weather. Winter has been canceled for us here in SE TX, unfortunately.

Edit: Accuweather has a high of 80 for tomorrow! Ha!

Now that's my kind of thinking! Unfortunately, it'll be hard for us to hit anywhere near 80 degrees when the near-shore water temps are 55F. Any onshore flow will result in considerable clouds inland and fog over near-shore waters.

Anyone here running in the marathon on Sunday morning? Cold air should be pouring in across the area for the race, though it's looking like the rain will come to an end just about at the start of the race.

Booo hiss on 80! A high of 80 in summer would be glorious, but not in winter. I love the chilly weather. It sure is nice to be getting the rain. I would love some snow, but know that was probably a twice in a lifetime event since I moved down here.

Ed - up north, they don't worry about pipes because they're not allowed to run water pipes in uninsulated areas (like attics). We don't have such requirements, so our pipes are subject to freezing in extreme cold.

I still have tropical perennials here in Baton Rouge that have yet to freeze back. This is the latest that all of my tropical perennials have lasted. Most of the time they are frozen back by middle December.

With the days getting longer and a warm period look for some of the early Japanese maples and the Taiwan Flowering Cherries to begin blooming. The swamp red maple blooms are already swelling and if it does not cool soon should begin blooming.

My pontsettias that I planted outside last March are in full boom.

Cloud2ground wrote:Is it any wonder why depression explodes during the winter. I can think of nothing worse than high's in the 40's, cloudy and wet.
Bring on Spring already.

I love Highs in the 40s with rain!

mcheer23 wrote:
I love Highs in the 40s with rain!

Well then you should be delighted at these upcoming dreary/depressing days.

You know it!!!

Hey, how come nobody told me where I could buy a weather balloon?

Hello Paul. Everyone is taking a break after the last weather event and getting ready for the next one. Believe it or not you can buy a 20 ft weather ballon at Amazon.com.

Paul Robison wrote:Hey, how come nobody told me where I could buy a weather balloon?

I just went to Google and typed in "weather balloon purchase" and found a company that sells them:

http://www.scientificsales.com/Meteorol ... n-s/25.htm

Didnt' know where to place this article - but its very interesting for those who are EURO fans....




Weather models converged well to predict Hurricane Sandy’s arrival, but meteorologists complained of problems with U.S. forecasting ability shown up by a European model.


http://blogs.wlfi.com/2013/01/10/intere ... -s-models/

Think they took a little too long in issuing this tonight ..... I've been dealing with Dense Fog now in SGR for most of the night. Anyways, be careful and use those lowbeams if you must be out early.

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.WARM AIR MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER GULF SHELF WATERS HAVE
PRODUCED AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE FALLING AS THE FOG MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

TXZ199-200-210>213-226-227-235-121500-
/O.EXA.KHGX.FG.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130112T1500Z/
AUSTIN-COLORADO-FORT BEND-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MONTGOMERY-
WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...
HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...
PASADENA...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SUGAR LAND...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS
116 AM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING.

* EVENT...DENSE FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS.

* TIMING...DENSE FOG WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE...DISSIPATING
BY 9 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY. THE PATCHY
NATURE OF THE FOG WILL DROP VISIBILITIES QUICKLY IN A SHORT
DISTANCE. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME SEVERELY
RESTRICTED NEAR RIVERS...LAKES...BRIDGES...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

After a warm day today and developing showers and isolated storms mainly across E Texas and Louisiana into Arkansas, a strong cold front will sweep SE tonight setting the stage for a cold and cloudy week before a chance of some moisture returning mid week as a cut off upper low across Northern Mexico and a noisy sub tropical jet finally move E bringing warmer temps for next weekend...hopefully. Meanwhile across New Mexico, record cold has settled in for the coming week. Thankfully I left that all behind yesterday after spending a week in Northern New Mexico at Taos.

There are some indications that the longer range may become a bit more interesting as some very chilly air from Western Canada drops well S into the Lower 48 and even into Mexico as very cold air becomes entrenched from the Great Basin on E as we head toward the late January time frame. The EPO looks to remain negative while a PNA spike may well usher in Arctic Air across the Polar Regions from Eurasia/Western Siberia. We will see.

00Z Euro:
GFS Ensembles: Euro Ensembles: GGEM Ensembles: