December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[redneckweather]

Sorry folks...just a skinny line of showers and possibly a rumbling of thunder as it comes through later.

[srainhoutx]

SPC removes Slight Risk for all of Texas:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EAST TX...
A CONVECTIVE LINE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DALLAS METRO IS LOCATED
ALONG A COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. THE LINE
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LIFT ON THE WRN EDGE OF A 45 TO 60 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER WEST TX. THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND LINEAR NATURE OF THE
STORMS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE
MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST TX THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE STORMS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL THIS EVENING.

[biggerbyte]

Showers in Porter now. Every drop these days count.

[jasons2k]

Not much here and not much to my SW. I sure hope that line can backbuild - otherwise 2nd bust in a row fort me.

[Katdaddy]

Just had a heavy but quick burst of rain down here in N Galveston County. The winds have been gusting between 25-30mph this afternoon. A decent cell down to my SW headed this way but not to much on the radar except the large cell N of Houston.

[djmike]

This better not be another bust! A lot of hyper again with nothing to show for it! I need to stop getting my hopes up!

[biggerbyte]

You need more than fuel. You need a trigger. The further the gun is away from its target, the more difficult it is for a bullseye.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... /SYS/COMP/

See that swirl WAY up there in New Mexico and surrounding areas. There is your trigger.

For the most part... BUST!

Next...

[srainhoutx]

Imagine if we lived along the East Coast, Upper Mid West or New England and we're so accustomed to having cold and snowy winters. Now imagine that the infamous JB just cancelled winter for the month of January forecasting the continuation of the torch that they've had for December. I think I'm more grateful that the long range forecasts of above normal temps and much below normal rainfall have not materialized as of yet. Call me crazy, but I find an active unusual pattern a lot more interesting than fretting about months on end of nothing to talk about but hot and dry. But that's just me I suppose...

[Belmer]

WHAT A ******* JOKE. ALL THE HYPE ABOUT RAIN AND STORMS,AND ALL WE GET IS A FEW SHOWERS AND A WEAK WIMPLY BROKEN LINE OF RAIN? WHAT A JOKE. IM SICK OF ALL THE HYPE WITH NO RESULTS. I DEMAND THE HYPE STOP. THIS IS GETTING RIDICULOUS.

No disrespect, but if you're tired of all the hype and models not getting it 'right' then maybe this forum just isn't for you. This forum is about short/med/long range forecasting and we base that off our models. If you don't like what we have to say, especially with our pros on here, I would suggest to hibernate from this forum for the winter season, because it's winter here in Houston, and it's always challenging to make a bulls eye forecast. Just a suggestion, otherwise... keep reading our post and 'hype' but don't by all means get mad at our pros on here as they're just doing their job and giving us what the models show us. It's mother nature.

That is all...

[jgreak]

Picked up 1.3 inches in the ol' backyard rain gauge here in Kingwood in all of 30 minutes Lake Houston is filling back up - the canal behind my parents house is full enough for them to get the boat back out for the first time since about May!

[biggerbyte]

Nice, isn't it? The Porter/Kingwood areas are no longer dry. It was so bad here for so long.

[srainhoutx]

My back yard has been muddy for the past two months. My White Labs have a mud track behind the pool waterfall. I'd rather deal with that than constant dust and cement hard soil...lol

[biggerbyte]

Got that right.. No complaints here. We no longer have to be so disappointed if we don't get tons of rain. Now when it comes time to forecast snow ... LOL. I hope we don't have to go there this season. Bring it on.

[srainhoutx]

I won't mention the 00Z NAM @ 60 hours showing some decent rain chances because it might bust...

[Ptarmigan]

Imagine if we lived along the East Coast, Upper Mid West or New England and we're so accustomed to having cold and snowy winters. Now imagine that the infamous JB just cancelled winter for the month of January forecasting the continuation of the torch that they've had for December. I think I'm more grateful that the long range forecasts of above normal temps and much below normal rainfall have not materialized as of yet. Call me crazy, but I find an active unusual pattern a lot more interesting than fretting about months on end of nothing to talk about but hot and dry. But that's just me I suppose...

I prefer an active pattern than a heat wave and drought too. Makes life more interesting. I don't want to hear about the dreaded Cockroach Ridge. Besides droughts and heat wave kill more people than any other weather events. Just look at East Africa in a drought.

[Ptarmigan]

Should be an interesting night. Could hear thunder tonight while we sleep.

[Ptarmigan]

I see rain west and some south of Houston.

[spadilly]

467 
WWUS54 KHGX 200633
SVSHGX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1233 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011


TXC373-455-200645-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-111220T0645Z/
POLK TX-TRINITY TX-
1233 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CST FOR TRINITY
AND POLK COUNTIES...

AT 1232 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
GROVETON...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR A TORNADO - TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3081 9510 3094 9526 3115 9504 3098 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 224DEG 30KT 3096 9508

$$


--

[djjordan]

Well as much as I like rainfall and maybe even Lightning and Thunder ...... I am getting sick of just lines of rain heading through SE Texas ....... It would be nice for a change if something would just sit over us for awhile ...... When's the last time a Flash Flood Warning has been issued in our area?????

[biggerbyte]

Folks, nothing severe, but we have a line of storms moving west to east across the area. Not that I need to tell some of you that, but others that have not seen it yet might be in for a surprise, otherwise. There was some uncertainty earlier about whether this line, when out west, would back build. It did..

Lots of lightning and thunder with this. Much needed rainfall as well.

Enjoy!

BB