January 2025

[DoctorMu]

This system depends on when a tongue of warm Pacific air at 7000-10,000 feet moves through and time of the next push of cold air. It's beginning to look like a mixed bag - leaning toward more freezing north and west: cold rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow.

I think CS will be right there in the transition zone.

We always seem to be. lol

[walsean1]

What everyone is seeing in model right now may not be the case in 2 to 3 days. With all of the experienced meteorologists out there, they don’t even know and will be conservative because of it. What we see in temperatures right now will be colder by Monday with a north wind. Next shot of cold air will be diving south over refrigerated snow pack

[tireman4]

Preparing for the cold

[tireman4]

Euro

[tireman4]

ICON

[Stratton20]

18z ICON has some light snow accumulations for parts of se texas

[AtascocitaWX]

When does the Nam come into play. Want to see what it shows.

[DoctorMu]

ICON

The 12Z Icon goes out to 180 hours, but not the 18z (120 hrs). The 12Z ICON mirrors the Euro solution. The Canadian Ensemble is more aggressive.

NAM = 84 hours out I believe.

[DoctorMu]

Coco and I could both be in that transition zone.

[sswinney]

Appears front may also be over performing. It’s five degrees cooler in Wichita than what was forecasted at this time by the ECMWF. This is just the initial surge too. It’s also a few degrees cooler than the GFS, ICON, and HRRR.

[DoctorMu]

Appears front may also be over performing. It’s five degrees cooler in Wichita than what was forecasted at this time by the ECMWF. This is just the initial surge too. It’s also a few degrees cooler than the GFS, ICON, and HRRR.

No surprise. Today has been cooler than expected as well.

[Stratton20]

18z ICON

[tireman4]

GEFS

[tireman4]

Euro

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro

Mu gets a nice blanket there

[tireman4]

As was stated in this mornings AFD, the models will flip flop almost all the way until the event. Predicting Frozen P Type events are extremely tricky. As I stated this morning, this will give forecasters fits.( read this mornings AFD) . It will be a roller coaster ride.

[davidiowx]

As was stated in this mornings AFD, the models will flip flop almost all the way until the event. Predicting Frozen P Type events are extremely tricky. As I stated this morning, this will give forecasters fits.( read this mornings AFD) . It will be a roller coaster ride.

Yep! In other words, if you’re model hugging every ensemble, you’ll lose a lot of sleep in the next several days lol.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m still more stoked about what I think is coming late month.

[tireman4]

Tomorrow..a snipet from AFD..."The region will be positioned in the warm sector, leading to some destabilization of the atmosphere. Moderate instability ( MUCAPE 1,300-1600 j/kg), steep to low level lapse rates 7-8 c/km ( read rainfall per rate per hour) and strong bulk shear will be enough to develop strong updrafts/ organized cells along the line of thunderstorms. If strong to severe storms develop, damaging winds and a threat of brief/isolated tornadoes will be the msin risks .An isolated threat of hail cannot be ruled out. Rain and storm chances as well any severe weather threat will end late afternoon/ early evening." I am in agreement that straight line winds will be issue, brief heavy downpours will occur, but I think it will be moving well not to be an extreme issue. There might be descrete cells ahead of the front, I believe. The readings aren't as stout as Christmas Eve, but the readings on the 26th were not and ended up with long trackers.

[Stratton20]

00z ICON gives houston 1-2 inches of snow