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NWS seems to predict a colder February 1-2 and heavy rain 2-3. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....................wxman666 wrote:Hey y'all. CPC shows an interesting HWO update. Heavy "precip" outlined for the area Feb 2-3, as well as "Much below normal temps" for the entire state of TX and then some.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif
Snowman wrote:For Northwest Harris County the NWS has a 20 percent chance of precipitation on wednesday night with a low of 25....
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Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.Yup. But is that depicting when the cold air filters south, or how long it will stay?Ptarmigan wrote:NWS seems to predict a colder February 1-2 and heavy rain 2-3. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....................wxman666 wrote:Hey y'all. CPC shows an interesting HWO update. Heavy "precip" outlined for the area Feb 2-3, as well as "Much below normal temps" for the entire state of TX and then some.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.gif
And doesn't it normally say heavy "rain" when they're confident it'll be rain, vs. heavy "precip?" I seem to remember that last summer.
Speaking of the GFS it is coming in farther west and stronger so far:I think the forecast will change. So much uncertainty.wxman666 wrote:
Yup. But is that depicting when the cold air filters south, or how long it will stay?
Andrew wrote:Well after a 3 hour nap I feel ready for the 00z models.
TXStormjg wrote:I'm not new to this forum, as I have been busy with other things. I will say this, and I hope folks heed it: If, and I do mean if we do get into a winter weather session, as many seem to think (and wish), I hope they all know to STAY HOME, if the local stations give that advice!
I remember back when, when we had a rather minor icing event, and the major havoc it caused on the roads. If you have never driven on ice, allow me to give a brief idea: You are cruising along the highway, with nothing exciting going on. Suddenly, you realize you are lookig out your windshield, and the world is spinning. Guess what? It aint the world spinning...it's YOU!! Do you know what to do if you realize you are in a totally uncontrollable spin? No? Well, there ya go; stay home! If you have, think about the other guy out there who has no idea what to do if he hits ice!!! Enough said!!
With that being said, I kinda hope we do see some of the white stuff. My kids would certanly love it, and it could mean a day off for me. But, as a Storm Spotter, I might be one of those out there getting reports...who knows!! Have to take a wait and see attitude here!
Andrew wrote:GFS keeps the cold air in place longer
To tell you the truth I don't think we will know until the event actually happens. Timing is such an issue even the smallest change in timing could mean the difference between rain and some sort of wintry mix. The chances are going up as of last night I didn't think we had much of a chance of anything and now we actually have a chance.Mr. Weather wrote:would u say that our chances for wintry precipitation is going up here in Houston the closer we get ?
Andrew wrote:To tell you the truth I don't think we will know until the event actually happens. Timing is such an issue even the smallest change in timing could mean the difference between rain and some sort of wintry mix. The chances are going up as of last night I didn't think we had much of a chance of anything and now we actually have a chance.Mr. Weather wrote:would u say that our chances for wintry precipitation is going up here in Houston the closer we get ?
Mr. T wrote:0z cmc still has the -10 850 line reaching Houston.
This cmc run is even slightly colder than the 12z run!Yea but not to mention it stays colder even longer! The -10 line stays around for 1-2 days!
Also we are so close to a wintry mix in this run it is killing me.
Mr. T wrote:This cmc run is even slightly colder than the 12z run!Yea but not to mention it stays colder even longer! The -10 line stays around for 1-2 days!
Also we are so close to a wintry mix in this run it is killing me.
This would be fun on the bun if the gfs could just jump on board already... This is day 6 now