January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[srainhoutx]

Meanwhile the rain just keeps pouring down...

[ronyan]

Larry Cosgrove's thoughts:
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... ary-5-2011

[Ptarmigan]

Meanwhile the rain just keeps pouring down...

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/sou ... s_loop.gif

No complaints about the rain.

[TexasMetBlake]

So far the 00z looks good and just as cold as the other runs. Let's keep watching...

BTW, Frank Billingsley mentioned a second ago that "today the highs were in the 20s in places like Salt Lake City. Next week, that could be us!"

[TexasMetBlake]

This run is COLD! Look at the -30C isotherms showing up!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

[Andrew]

This run is COLD! Look at the -30C isotherms showing up!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

Yea really good run so far.

[srainhoutx]

1060mb Arctic high in Western Canada. We're going to get cold, folks...

[Andrew]

1060mb Arctic high in Western Canada. We're going to get cold, folks...

Indeed. The cold air is taking longer to come down but when it does watch out!

[helloitsb]

woah! did the cold air really just do that? it still looks like it is going off east

[sambucol]

About when will our temps be at or below freezing and for about how long? I'm trying to figure out when I will need to shut off the water to the house and drain the pipes. It'll be inconvenient, but the only certain way for the pipes not to burst.

[TexasMetBlake]

Okay, we need to really stop shouting things that aren't quite true. NOTHING is going east. No model indicates it is going east. However, I do see that the gfs is stalling the cold air arrival a bit and the high pressure seems to be weaker this run...despite showing a 1060 in western Canada.

[helloitsb]

sorry

[Andrew]

hmm weird run. Don't know why the GFS stops the cold air from coming down but this has been a common bias of the GFS for a while.... Also 500 vort not as impressive as some of the earlier runs. Doesn't make sense to me but maybe I am missing something.

[TexasMetBlake]

Doesn't make much sense to me either since air this dense and cold will usually arrive far quicker than the models indicate. I need to look at the 500 mb flow for answers I guess. Something doesn't add up this run.

[biggerbyte]

Unless something drastic happens, it is coming south. I'm not so much worried about the when, but the how cold, the how long, and do we get precip. while it is still cold. Friday or Saturday should be telling days.

[biggerbyte]

Agreed, Candy Cane. When that airmas starts moving south, nothing will be able to stop it. Just like a freight train full speed. This is, of course, all depending on things continuing to look like they look now. Again, we need a couple more days to verify.


Hang on to your hats, newbies.

[Baseballdude2915]

00z is quite a bummer. Still shows some cold, just longer to get here.

Let's see what the Euro shows.

[TexasMetBlake]

It's ONE run. The Euro at 00z last night was pitiful. It returned to its senses at 12z. Come on, a 1060 high is massive. Let's not downplay that.

[Andrew]

It's ONE run. The Euro at 00z last night was pitiful. It returned to its senses at 12z. Come on, a 1060 high is massive. Let's not downplay that.

Why do you think it doesn't head south though? This should be pushing the cold air south:

[txsnowmaker]

I doubt that tonight's model runs will shed any light on what may happen next week with the Arctic air. We'll have to wait another 3-4 days for that. By then, the Arctic air either will or won't be in NW Canada where it has a chance to come down, and we can get a look at how cold it is.

Remember what wxman said ealrier tonight. As one hoping for some memorable and perhaps historic weather next week, I certainly will.