You won't have a SE wind by sunrise. It'll be a moderate N-NE wind with strong cold advection once the reinforcing cold front arrives. Look up in the panhandle:redneckweather wrote:Man, I'm sitting at 58 degrees right now. So how am I supposed to get down to the mid to upper 30's tonight under cloud cover and a southeast wind?
Newest 12Z guidance suggests some potential for light rain to mix with light snow tonight over the far northern counties of SE TX mainly from College Station to Lufkin. Afternoon dewpoints continue to run in the 20’s and 30’s across much of the northern ½ of SE TX and with the onset of rainfall this evening. Surface wet bulb temperatures are running in the mid 30’s over the northern sections of SE TX and once precipitation begins to fall the surface temperature will quickly cool toward the wet bulb temperature due to evaporative effects within the dry low level air mass. While surface temperatures will remain above freezing there is some potential for snow to mix with the rain. Profiles are very marginal for snow to reach the ground and most if not all will melt prior to reaching the surface, although would not be surprised to see a few flakes in the Livingston and Crockett areas late tonight. No accumulation is expected in SE TX although some light accumulation may occur over portions of N and NE TX.
Additionally, 12Z guidance has come in a little more aggressive with coastal surface low formation and rain chances/QPF for tonight into Wednesday AM. Will give the amounts a slight bump into the .25-.50 inch range for locations south of I-10 and possibly as much as .75 of an inch near the coast. Widespread coverage will require high rain chances overnight (60-70%) while amounts will on the low side.
srainhoutx wrote:E-mail from Jeff...
Newest 12Z guidance suggests some potential for light rain to mix with light snow tonight over the far northern counties of SE TX mainly from College Station to Lufkin. Afternoon dewpoints continue to run in the 20’s and 30’s across much of the northern ½ of SE TX and with the onset of rainfall this evening. Surface wet bulb temperatures are running in the mid 30’s over the northern sections of SE TX and once precipitation begins to fall the surface temperature will quickly cool toward the wet bulb temperature due to evaporative effects within the dry low level air mass. While surface temperatures will remain above freezing there is some potential for snow to mix with the rain. Profiles are very marginal for snow to reach the ground and most if not all will melt prior to reaching the surface, although would not be surprised to see a few flakes in the Livingston and Crockett areas late tonight. No accumulation is expected in SE TX although some light accumulation may occur over portions of N and NE TX.
Additionally, 12Z guidance has come in a little more aggressive with coastal surface low formation and rain chances/QPF for tonight into Wednesday AM. Will give the amounts a slight bump into the .25-.50 inch range for locations south of I-10 and possibly as much as .75 of an inch near the coast. Widespread coverage will require high rain chances overnight (60-70%) while amounts will on the low side.
It was expected, but not the heavy amounts...tireman4 wrote:Just curious. I am going back in the Wayback Machine to December 2004, but did the snow that happened during that month...was it expected or come up suddenly? I do remember some of the models were forecasting it.......
About 16 days before Christmas of 2004, the GFS was predicting a Christmas Eve snow event along the TX coast. I mentioned it to a client and he bet me a steak dinner it wouldn't happen. I took the bet. Over the next 16 days, the GFS was quite consistent in forecasting the snow event. It wasn't a surprise when it happened.tireman4 wrote:Just curious. I am going back in the Wayback Machine to December 2004, but did the snow that happened during that month...was it expected or come up suddenly? I do remember some of the models were forecasting it.......
wxman57 wrote:About 16 days before Christmas of 2004, the GFS was predicting a Christmas Eve snow event along the TX coast. I mentioned it to a client and he bet me a steak dinner it wouldn't happen. I took the bet. Over the next 16 days, the GFS was quite consistent in forecasting the snow event. It wasn't a surprise when it happened.tireman4 wrote:Just curious. I am going back in the Wayback Machine to December 2004, but did the snow that happened during that month...was it expected or come up suddenly? I do remember some of the models were forecasting it.......
Just finished decorating the Christmas tree. Now if I can just find my favorite Christmas song - "I'm dreaming of a hot july"...ticka1 wrote:At least its a cold and wet winterlike night! I love this type of weather makes it feel like the Christmas season.
Bring it on!
I thought it was "dusty the sandman"?wxman57 wrote: Just finished decorating the Christmas tree. Now if I can just find my favorite Christmas song - "I'm dreaming of a hot july"...
Baseballdude2915 wrote:I thought it was "dusty the sandman"?wxman57 wrote: Just finished decorating the Christmas tree. Now if I can just find my favorite Christmas song - "I'm dreaming of a hot july"...
That it was tireman4. I'll give you that.tireman4 wrote:Baseballdude2915 wrote:I thought it was "dusty the sandman"?wxman57 wrote: Just finished decorating the Christmas tree. Now if I can just find my favorite Christmas song - "I'm dreaming of a hot july"...
Ok that was a good one. LOL
OKC has a wintry mix at this hour and Tyler reported rain. The atmosphere should moisten up shortly across SE TX. I'm seeing returns off the Middle TX Coast as well.
Be careful what you wish for.wxman57 wrote:
Just finished decorating the Christmas tree. Now if I can just find my favorite Christmas song - "I'm dreaming of a hot july"...
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