MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

[Ounce]

Looking on the MyRadar app with the wind option on, there looks to be convergence of the north and south breezes around the Bellville Sealy area, then going southwest to Mondova in Mexico.

Must be a Low building in the area.

[redneckweather]

Clouds have thinned out a bit and we are beginning to see the sun peak through across NW Harris County

IMO, this will be the main key player if the sun breaks out.

[Cpv17]

The NAM is absolutely scary to look at. Wow

[stormlover]

What does it show I haven’t looked at it yet

[stormlover]

Nam is usually ok short term like tonight runs will usually do ok I just hate the nam lol

[unome]

Clouds have thinned out a bit and we are beginning to see the sun peak through across NW Harris County

IMO, this will be the main key player if the sun breaks out.

the squeeze is on http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80

[Cpv17]

What does it show I haven’t looked at it yet

Here you go

[Rip76]

Wow if correct.

[Texaspirate11]

Anyone know what the Euro is saying

[sau27]

Anyone know what the Euro is saying

Last few Euro runs are broad brushing 4-5 inches across the area with some pockets of 7 ish inches. But keep in mind these global models lack the resolution often needed in these kind of events. Also I heard a great quote from Tim Heller regarding heavy rain events in our area. He said he would take the model averages and then double them for his forecast.

[redneckweather]

The sun is peaking in and out here in Montgomery County. The air is extremely sultry.

[stormlover]

Global models have been struggling I think tonight’s run and the hrr will nail it

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091547
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1047 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast Highlights for Today through the Weekend:

- A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of Southeast Texas
starting at 1 PM today and continuing through 7 PM Saturday.
- Forecasted rainfall totals estimate about 4 to 8 inches
widespread, with isolated 9 to 12 inches possible through the
weekend. A lot of this rain could fall in a very short period of
time which cold lead to flash flooding.
- Minor to moderate river flooding is ongoing and is expected to
continue. Conditions could worsen significantly depending on
where the heaviest rains fall.
- There is a Slight Risk of severe storms today and tonight across
nearly all of Southeast Texas. The primary weather hazards are
expected to be damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes.

Parameters still look to be coming together for a potential heavy rain
event for parts of Southeast Texas beginning some time during the day
today (better chances later this afternoon or early this evening) and
continuing through Saturday. There are no changes being made to the
Flash Flood Watch that begins at 1 PM today and continues through
7 PM Saturday. Through the Watch period, several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop with locally heavy rainfall
likely as a frontal boundary extends across the area and becomes a
focus for deep moisture and instability. Good low level flow off the
Gulf and and increasing divergence aloft could lead to potentially
excessive rainfall as precipitable water values rise above 2 inches.
Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour or higher could be common
with these rounds of storms, and any slow moving activity or where
any training develops will lead to flash flooding.

As this potential heavy rain event begins and unfolds, stay updated
on the latest forecasts, including any potential watches or warnings
for your area. Stay safe out there! 42
&&

[unome]

Both GOES-16 and GOES-17 currently have one of their Meso views on TX area

here's just one source, from RAMMB's Slider, there are others - pick the options you want to add/change on the left of screen, it defaults to GeoColor, no overlay, 12 images, 1-min step

GOES-16 (East), Meso 2: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 000&y=1000

GOES-17 (West) Meso 1: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 000&y=1000

[sau27]

The stalled boundary is now pretty clearly showing up on radar through the northern parts of the area. Goes right thru Conroe.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday Noon Update from Jeff:

Meso scale models coming into a bit better agreement that incoming surface front now entering SE TX will result in the formation of numerous thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening over portions of the area. A somewhat favored low level convergence zone appears to slowly become established by mid to late afternoon between I-10 and HWY 105 with thunderstorms developing in this area and training west to east across the region. With favor onshore flow of 20-30kts feeding this developing activity along with extremely high levels of moisture, high hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible resulting in flash flooding. Storms may sink slowly south through the evening hours into the overnight hours while continuing to train west to east over the area.

Other forecast models are showing somewhat differing solutions, but just looking at the visible images on the frontal location and the old outflow boundary from last night does yield some better confidence that storms will develop between I-10 and Hwy 105 and possibly as far south as US 59 west of Houston

[unome]

Anyone know what the Euro is saying

you can view total accumulated precipitation on weather.us (you have to select that parameter, it defaults to temperature), some parts of this site are behind a paywall, so I don't want to post images - but you can change parameters, model run, date, etc... on the left side of the screen

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/texas/

I would pay more attention to local experts, rather than a specific model or models that may not have used the most current local data, but that's just my non-expert opinion

[srainhoutx]

Army Corps of Engineers have closed floodgates at Addicks/Barker Reservoirs. All water will be held in pools behind Reservoirs

[tireman4]

Galena Park ISD Closing

[tireman4]

From HGX NWS Skywarn...I do not recall wording like this...maybe the pro mets can chime...