February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[jojotheidiotclown]

Those warmer temps look so nice. Just seeing the sun again has been awesome! Bring on the heat.

[nuby3]

Those warmer temps look so nice. Just seeing the sun again has been awesome! Bring on the heat.

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR PLEASE. (I work outside)

ps.. anyone been watching the storm in the UK?? looks like a pretty bad situation over there

[jasons2k]

I am SO glad this is it! I was not expecting a freeze this morning - in fact I was a bit irritated as a TV met on a station-not-to-be-named proclaimed last night 'you don't need to bring in the potted plants tonight'...so, I didn't. I should have known better but I am so busy these days, I didn't really check the details myself - I just went by the 10:00 news.

Anyway, I am thankful for some beautiful weather for a change. The 80's cannot get here soon enough for me.

[Texaspirate11]

I think there's a very good chance that Houston has seen its last freeze of the winter. With the developing pattern it will be quite difficult to drive any significant cold air southward out of Canada. Next weekend's (Sunday) cold front may drop temps into the upper 30s at Bush, but there just isn't predicted to be any really cold air in western Canada beyond then.

I wish there was a LIKE BUTTON.

[srainhoutx]

Foggy mornings look to be the theme into next week with those cool shelf waters and a flow off the Gulf. There is still rather strong indications that a strong front will arrive late next week as a deep trough develops across the Western and Central US and a Ridge is in place across the East. Today marks the anniversary of the biggest recorded snow storm in Houston of 20 inches set in 1895.

[wxman57]

Nice weather on the 12Z GFS. Have to endure 2 more cold nights and one more cold day (tomorrow). Might not be so lucky next week, as temps may dip down near 40 for lows and highs around 55-65.

[Portastorm]

Stop the presses! It appears that despite what wxman57 may indicate, winter is not over for Texas. The Climate Prediction Center in its 8-14 day forecast discussion today explains that we should enjoy our week of warmth as winter WILL return.


8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 28 2014

TODAY'S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK FEATURES SOME NOTABLE CHANGES IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST COAST AND PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH SOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH AN EXPECTED EASTWARD
SHIFT FROM YESTERDAY. WHEN EXAMINING THE DAILY PROGRESSION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS, THE AMPLITUDE OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN STANDS OUT AS
EXCEPTIONAL. GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGES NEAR THE WEST COAST
THIS WINTER SEASON, THIS SOLUTION SEEMS PARTICULARLY REASONABLE.

RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS, A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT PATTERN. WITH RIDGING
FORECAST OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE MEAN TROUGH FORECAST NEAR 90W, ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OF TROPICAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO AGAIN SHIFT
TOWARD A REGIME THAT TELECONNECTS WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
DURING WEEK-2 AND BEYOND.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER

[srainhoutx]

What an absolutely gorgeous day. Temperature just touched 78F in NW Harris County and is very welcomed after what seems to have been months of dreary cold weather. A weak front is nearing the Coast and should keep fog issues at bay in the morning before a return flow off the Gulf re establishes. The longer range ensembles are very suggestive this warm pattern will not last as a strong front arrives late next week. Get out and enjoy this Spring weather!

[cisa]

Anyone care to guess what next weekend looks like at Surfside. I love the beach in the winter so that isn't a problem. Just eying to figure out pack g etc.

[unome]

not for our area, but pretty unusual to have an alert for day 5:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Thu, Feb 20, 2014 - Fri, Feb 21, 2014

INITIALLY...SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES DAY 4...EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE START OF DAY
5. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW SHIFTING NEWD FROM THE OK VICINITY EARLY TO THE MI VICINITY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE OH/MID MS VALLEYS AND INTO TX WILL LIKELY
FOCUS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR
ADVECTING NWD SUPPORTS MODEST SURFACE-BASED CAPE.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED N
OF THE OH VALLEY...WHILE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LIKELY REMAINS
LIMITED TO AREAS FROM THE SRN IL/SRN INDIANA REGION SWD. THUS...THE
ZONE OF GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION -- FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY SWD
ACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS -- APPEARS TO BE THE ZONE WHERE SEVERE
RISK WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE VARIOUS
MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF THE
WIND FIELD...AND DEWPOINTS AT LEAST INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA SUPPORTING AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED
CAPE...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS SUFFICIENT WITH THE
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE LINE TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A RISK AREA THIS
FORECAST -- MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like a weak Pacific front may pass next Saturday and slightly increase our rain chances, cisa. The longer range models continue to advertise a significant pattern change from that of a zonal flow with a series of Pacific storms bringing moisture to drought parched California and the Pacific NW to a very robust Ridge that builds well into Alaska and Western Canada ushering in a brutal return to Winter and an active sub tropical jet sometime during the week of the 24th. It must be Rodeo time in Houston. Past experience tells us that winter often returns with a very sharp cold front when the Rodeo comes to town. We will see.

[TexasMetBlake]

It's fantasy but if it, 12z Euro at 260 hours, were to come to fruition, it would be the coldest arctic outbreak yet for 2014....and THAT's saying something. The 00z GFS does show an amplifying pattern with deepening trough east and a stealthy ridge out west thanks to a disturbance that drops into the Dakota's on the 26th (216 hours) but the cold doesn't look all the impressive at this time. Something to keep an eye on though.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It's fantasy but if it, 12z Euro at 260 hours, were to come to fruition, it would be the coldest arctic outbreak yet for 2014....and THAT's saying something. The 00z GFS does show an amplifying pattern with deepening trough east and a stealthy ridge out west thanks to a disturbance that drops into the Dakota's on the 26th (216 hours) but the cold doesn't look all the impressive at this time. Something to keep an eye on though.

Bring it on... Give me one more nice cold blast before we enter Hell season around here.

[srainhoutx]

A weak front is slowly sagging S across Texas this morning and will pull up stationary just N of Houston tomorrow. As the boundary retreats back N, the Gulf will open back up allowing sea/bay fog to enter the forecast once again during the morning hours. As the pattern begins to transition from a zonal flow to that of a much more amplified Central/Eastern troughiness as heights rise across the West and the Gulf of Alaska nosing N into the interior of Alaska in time. A robust storm system will eject out of the Plains on Thursday ushering in a chance of severe weather to our NE. A stronger front will follow that storm system allowing for the front to clear the Coast late week. The ensembles are in agreement with a general pattern change from warm temperatures across our Region to that of a much cooler weather as a large Western Canada Arctic High build S next week reminding us that Winter is not yet over.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE CENTRAL/ERN U.S. TROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE INITIAL PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. DAY 4 /THU. 2-20/. AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS QUICKLY NWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE ALLOWING A STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME.

WITHIN A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON -- FROM SRN IL/ERN MO
SSWWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...IN A LINEAR CONFIGURATION
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE ROLLS EWD. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY WITH EMBEDDED VORTICES
WITHIN THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO ADVANCE MORE SLOWLY THAN IN PRIOR
RUNS...SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST
STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 5 /FRI. 2-21/. WHILE THE
STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. -- WELL REMOVED FROM THE GREATER
MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL FARTHER S -- THE STRENGTH OF THE
FLOW FIELD ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL SPREAD EWD TO
THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE
DIURNALLY RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WITH THE BOUNDARY APPEARING LIKELY TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY
EARLY EVENING AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXPAND/PERSIST ACROSS
THE ERN U.S. THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND DAY 5 OVER
THE CONUS.

..GOSS.. 02/17/2014

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1109 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

VALID 12Z THU FEB 20 2014 - 12Z MON FEB 24 2014


THE WELL-ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA
IS NOW SQUARELY IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. CONTINUE TO RELY
UPON THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR
THE PATTERN CHANGE, WITH THE GEFS MEAN SUBJECT TO NOISY SHIFTS OF
LATE DUE TO THE DISPARITY AND VARIABLE CLUSTERING OF ITS
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. THERE IS CERTAINLY LITTLE OF SUBSTANCE TO BE
GLEANED FROM ANY RECENT RUN OF EITHER THE DETERMINISTIC GFS OR
ECMWF WITH THE NOISY SIGNAL TAKING ITS TOLL.

THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FORTUNES IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, WITH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DRYING OUT AS THE FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE
BUILDS, AND THE GULF STATES JUICING UP WITH STRONGLY BACKING FLOW
AS THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DIGS. IMPRESSIVELY ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE PERIOD FROM THE GULF
STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC, WITH EQUALLY ANOMALOUS COLD SHOWING UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND BEGINS TO DISLODGE BY DAY 7.


CISCO

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Some good news (for me at least)... I had an online conversation with the late shift met at NWS Houston on twitter.

In the top 10 coldest Winters (this being the 7th coldest for Houston, so we exclude this year), the following Summer had very few, IF ANY, 100 degree days. I believe 3-4 had zero, and the rest had 1-3 days.


I'm liking that. While I don't like 90 degrees, it is much more tolerable than 100 with moderate to high levels of humidity. Give me a strong wind and 90-92, and I call that about as good of a Summer day that one could ask for. I'm a runner, and I abhor humidity and heat on long runs. My time in grad school up in Columbus, Ohio, I found that I'd rather run in 15 degree weather than 90 degrees, and I never thought that would be the case growing up in Deep East Texas.

[tireman4]

As a fellow runner, I am liking that. I really am. Summer 2011 was just torture. Now, some fellow cyclists might not agree, but I think a 90-92 with wind is great.

[biffb816]

Guess I'll hold off on those tomato plants for a few more weeks.

[wxman57]

Guess I'll hold off on those tomato plants for a few more weeks.

That depends on your location. If you're in Huntsville or Conroe, you may still get another light freeze. Otherwise, there's a good chance we've seen our last freeze of the season. Tomatoes need to have nighttime temps below 70 degrees to set fruit, so if you start them too late you'll have a limited crop. Better to get them going now and cover them if we get another light freeze. I don't think we'll have another freeze this week or next week, and that takes us to March.

[wxman57]

As a fellow runner, I am liking that. I really am. Summer 2011 was just torture. Now, some fellow cyclists might not agree, but I think a 90-92 with wind is great.

I think an ideal biking temperature is 85-88 degrees. Below 85 and I find it a bit chilly with a sleeveless jersey. Of course, I can tolerate a high of 95-100 a lot better than a high of 60 on a 5-hr bike ride. I'm thinking we won't have an extremely hot summer this year.

[biffb816]

Guess I'll hold off on those tomato plants for a few more weeks.

That depends on your location. If you're in Huntsville or Conroe, you may still get another light freeze. Otherwise, there's a good chance we've seen our last freeze of the season. Tomatoes need to have nighttime temps below 70 degrees to set fruit, so if you start them too late you'll have a limited crop. Better to get them going now and cover them if we get another light freeze. I don't think we'll have another freeze this week or next week, and that takes us to March.

Way to shoot down my excuse