December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead
The strong rain and wind woke me up. Sounded like a hurricane came.
I hope those winds finally knocked out the rest of the acorns from my oak tree....I've been dealing with these acorns since October
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srainhoutx
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Excellent discussion from NWS Dallas/Ft Worth tonight about the possible senarios on the table and why the forecast remain so uncertain at this range regard the Christmas Storm:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
845 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012
.UPDATE...
THE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 0 DEG F AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS
NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS IS ABOUT THE DRIEST AIR I CAN RECALL
IN MANY YEARS. THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TONIGHT...WITH BIG VARIATIONS IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION BASED ON LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY AND SOIL
TYPE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WHICH
WILL KEEP A LIGHT WEST WIND IN PLACE TONIGHT...AND THIS LIGHT WIND
COMBINED WITH HEAT STORED UP IN THE SOIL WILL KEEP TEMPS 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR DEWPOINT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE SW ZONES NEARER TO THE HIGH CENTER.
YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE AFD ENDS HERE. SINCE IT IS A QUIET
NIGHT...ITS WEATHER CLASSROOM AND LAB TIME FOR THOSE INTERESTED...
THE CHRISTMAS NIGHT FORECAST IS ON EVERYONE/S MIND. WE HAVE BEEN
WATCHING THIS SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND
CONTINUE TO RIGHTLY ASSESS THAT A POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER EVENT
EXISTS. UNFORTUNATELY MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE SKILL IN
THAT TIME RANGE TO ACCURATELY PREDICT THE INTENSITY AND LATITUDE
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TAKE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON TUESDAY. AS WE HAVE SAID IN
THE LAST 2 AFDS...THIS COLD FRONT IS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST.
BUT TO UNDERSTAND WHY...IT IS HELPFUL TO DISCUSS BAROCLINICITY
AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.
ESSENTIALLY THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE BLOBS OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY...OR VORTICITY...OFTEN CALLED SHORTWAVES OR DISTURBANCES.
IN AN ATMOSPHERE WHERE THERE IS VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION...THE MOTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS
BASICALLY DICTATED BY THE FLOW THEY ARE A PART OF. THEY BEHAVE
MUCH LIKE A LEAF WOULD IF IT WERE FLOATING DOWN A RIVER.
HOWEVER WHEN HORIZONTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS EXIST...SUCH AS
WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NEARBY...THIS SIMPLE RULE GOES OUT THE
WINDOW. THIS IS CALLED A BAROCLINIC ATMOSPHERE. A DISTURBANCE THAT
MOVES INTO A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INTENSIFY. THIS IS BECAUSE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BEGINS TO INTERFACE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. IN SHORT...THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
CAUSE HEIGHT CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WHICH IN TURN
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER...WHICH IN TURN
STRENGTHENS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...AND ETC. THE WHOLE
THING BECOMES A FEEDBACK LOOP. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE UNDERGOING
BAROCLINIC INTENSIFICATION WILL TRANSFORM INTO A CYCLONE AND WILL
NO LONGER MOVE WITH THE MEAN FLOW...BUT WILL CURVE TOWARD THE
POLE. IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TOWARD THE POLE THE CYCLONE
OFTEN OCCLUDES...MEANING THEY LOSE THEIR ACCESS TO THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS AND THEY WEAKEN. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN MANY MODEL RUNS OF
A BIG WINTER CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CURVING OFF TO THE NORTH. IN THE LATEST MODELS WE NO LONGER SEE
THAT SOLUTION AND SEE A WEAK TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD.
THE REASON WHY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN A POWERFUL
WINTER CYCLONE IN THE PLAINS AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN DUE
TO THE LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE /OR COLD FRONT/ WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE TREND IN MOST OF THE
MODELS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. AS A RESULT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVELS OVER TEXAS
WITHOUT STRENGTHENING BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK
SO FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM THUS DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL
IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHERE A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXISTS.
THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...IS ONE THAT
WOULD ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF WINTER PRECIP. THIS IS BECAUSE
THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND HAS NO ACCESS TO THE THERMAL GRADIENTS
IT NEEDS TO INTENSIFY. AN INTENSIFYING LOW WOULD BE ABLE AUGMENT
THE WIND FIELDS AND THUS TAP INTO THE GULF FOR MOISTURE.
IN ORDER TO GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM HERE...WE WOULD NEED THE
FRONT TO BE FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT NOT SO FAR
NORTH THAT THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS POLEWARD TURN AND STAYS NORTH OF
THE REGION ALTOGETHER. WE NEED A GOLDILOCKS POSITION OF THIS
FRONT. AGAIN...KNOWING THE PRECISE LOCATION OF A FRONT BEYOND 5
DAYS IS THE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS FORECAST. THANKFULLY THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AND WILL BE SAMPLED BY THE BALLOON
NETWORK. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE IN RANGE OF THE NAM BY TOMORROW
FOR HAVING ANOTHER OPINION ON THIS FRONT/S STRENGTH AND LOCATION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EVEN IF WE DONT GET AN EXPLICIT DEC
25TH FORECAST FROM THE NAM UNTIL SATURDAY.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
845 PM CST THU DEC 20 2012
.UPDATE...
THE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 0 DEG F AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS
NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS IS ABOUT THE DRIEST AIR I CAN RECALL
IN MANY YEARS. THE DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TONIGHT...WITH BIG VARIATIONS IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION BASED ON LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY AND SOIL
TYPE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WHICH
WILL KEEP A LIGHT WEST WIND IN PLACE TONIGHT...AND THIS LIGHT WIND
COMBINED WITH HEAT STORED UP IN THE SOIL WILL KEEP TEMPS 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR DEWPOINT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE SW ZONES NEARER TO THE HIGH CENTER.
YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE AFD ENDS HERE. SINCE IT IS A QUIET
NIGHT...ITS WEATHER CLASSROOM AND LAB TIME FOR THOSE INTERESTED...
THE CHRISTMAS NIGHT FORECAST IS ON EVERYONE/S MIND. WE HAVE BEEN
WATCHING THIS SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND
CONTINUE TO RIGHTLY ASSESS THAT A POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER EVENT
EXISTS. UNFORTUNATELY MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE SKILL IN
THAT TIME RANGE TO ACCURATELY PREDICT THE INTENSITY AND LATITUDE
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TAKE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON TUESDAY. AS WE HAVE SAID IN
THE LAST 2 AFDS...THIS COLD FRONT IS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST.
BUT TO UNDERSTAND WHY...IT IS HELPFUL TO DISCUSS BAROCLINICITY
AND ITS AFFECTS ON THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.
ESSENTIALLY THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE BLOBS OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY...OR VORTICITY...OFTEN CALLED SHORTWAVES OR DISTURBANCES.
IN AN ATMOSPHERE WHERE THERE IS VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION...THE MOTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS
BASICALLY DICTATED BY THE FLOW THEY ARE A PART OF. THEY BEHAVE
MUCH LIKE A LEAF WOULD IF IT WERE FLOATING DOWN A RIVER.
HOWEVER WHEN HORIZONTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS EXIST...SUCH AS
WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NEARBY...THIS SIMPLE RULE GOES OUT THE
WINDOW. THIS IS CALLED A BAROCLINIC ATMOSPHERE. A DISTURBANCE THAT
MOVES INTO A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INTENSIFY. THIS IS BECAUSE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BEGINS TO INTERFACE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. IN SHORT...THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS
CAUSE HEIGHT CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WHICH IN TURN
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER...WHICH IN TURN
STRENGTHENS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION...AND ETC. THE WHOLE
THING BECOMES A FEEDBACK LOOP. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE UNDERGOING
BAROCLINIC INTENSIFICATION WILL TRANSFORM INTO A CYCLONE AND WILL
NO LONGER MOVE WITH THE MEAN FLOW...BUT WILL CURVE TOWARD THE
POLE. IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TOWARD THE POLE THE CYCLONE
OFTEN OCCLUDES...MEANING THEY LOSE THEIR ACCESS TO THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS AND THEY WEAKEN. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN MANY MODEL RUNS OF
A BIG WINTER CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CURVING OFF TO THE NORTH. IN THE LATEST MODELS WE NO LONGER SEE
THAT SOLUTION AND SEE A WEAK TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD.
THE REASON WHY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN A POWERFUL
WINTER CYCLONE IN THE PLAINS AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN DUE
TO THE LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE /OR COLD FRONT/ WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE TREND IN MOST OF THE
MODELS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. AS A RESULT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVELS OVER TEXAS
WITHOUT STRENGTHENING BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK
SO FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM THUS DOES NOT INTENSIFY UNTIL
IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHERE A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXISTS.
THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...IS ONE THAT
WOULD ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF WINTER PRECIP. THIS IS BECAUSE
THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK AND HAS NO ACCESS TO THE THERMAL GRADIENTS
IT NEEDS TO INTENSIFY. AN INTENSIFYING LOW WOULD BE ABLE AUGMENT
THE WIND FIELDS AND THUS TAP INTO THE GULF FOR MOISTURE.
IN ORDER TO GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM HERE...WE WOULD NEED THE
FRONT TO BE FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT NOT SO FAR
NORTH THAT THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS POLEWARD TURN AND STAYS NORTH OF
THE REGION ALTOGETHER. WE NEED A GOLDILOCKS POSITION OF THIS
FRONT. AGAIN...KNOWING THE PRECISE LOCATION OF A FRONT BEYOND 5
DAYS IS THE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS FORECAST. THANKFULLY THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AND WILL BE SAMPLED BY THE BALLOON
NETWORK. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE IN RANGE OF THE NAM BY TOMORROW
FOR HAVING ANOTHER OPINION ON THIS FRONT/S STRENGTH AND LOCATION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EVEN IF WE DONT GET AN EXPLICIT DEC
25TH FORECAST FROM THE NAM UNTIL SATURDAY.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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Andrew
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EURO coming in a lot stronger through 120:
EDIT TO ADD: Euro Continues to show a very progressive system with the low moving east rather quickly. Moisture looks interesting though for North/Central Texas. both 850mb and 700mb levels looks good for some sort of precip. Also the flow from the gulf looks to return relatively quickly after the trough pushes through.
EDIT TO ADD: Euro Continues to show a very progressive system with the low moving east rather quickly. Moisture looks interesting though for North/Central Texas. both 850mb and 700mb levels looks good for some sort of precip. Also the flow from the gulf looks to return relatively quickly after the trough pushes through.
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Portastorm
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Chilly morning here in southwest Travis County ... sitting 26 degrees at 6:30 a.m.
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srainhoutx
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A chilly 27 here in NW Harris County as well this morning. Now all eyes turn W and enjoy the warming trend until the Christmas Storm moves inland and is sampled in the RAOB network. For those traveling N, W and E stay safe and keep in touch as the forecast becomes a bit better 'fine tuned' the next couple of days.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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NWS mentioned dry-slotting before the Christmas front. Please say it ain't so.
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srainhoutx
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The are some positive signs for the cold weather lover as the Christmas Storm passes suggesting a colder regime will become established and maintain throughout the week leading up to the New Year. It also appears it could be rather stormy as the sub tropical jet remains noisy and storm tracks continue across the 4 Corners Region into the Southern Plains.
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Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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What did I say? It's not gonna be that big of deal in terms of temps and precip with this front that's supposed to be so amazing and so very cold. Oops, try again Mother Nature. Lol 
KHOU had a high on Wednesday at about 45 degrees. Now it's up to 50. We'll be up to 55 in no time. Normal, nothing too amazing if you ask me.
KHOU had a high on Wednesday at about 45 degrees. Now it's up to 50. We'll be up to 55 in no time.
Normal, nothing too amazing if you ask me.Those precip maps don't look nearly as impressive as they did just a few days ago. Looks like this front may not bring much more than another thin line of showers. It is the Med range GFS instead of the long range now, so the flopping potential is very high.
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srainhoutx
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The GFS and Canadian operational guidance is in and there remains subtle difference although both suggest a very progressive storm system. The GFS is keying in on snow across Oklahoma/Arkansas into MO and on E with showers/storms possible ahead of the front Christmas Eve/Christmas Day further S in the warm sector ahead of the front. The Canadian does suggest a bit of wrap around flurries extending S into N TX, portions of E TX and on E across Northern Louisiana. This remains a very low confidence forecast and the eventual storm track and cold frontal placement will determine what actually can be expected. Stay Tuned. HPC Update:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1123 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012
VALID 12Z MON DEC 24 2012 - 12Z FRI DEC 28 2012
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CONUS BUT WITH EMBEDDED
AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THAT WILL GENERATE MEANINGFUL WEATHER IMPACTS.
THE TWO MIDDLE SYSTEMS OF THE FOUR IN THE SERIES SHOULD BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT... ONE FCST TO REACH THE SRN PLAINS-LWR MS VALLEY
NEXT TUE/CHRISTMAS DAY AND TRACKING NEWD THEREAFTER WITH THE
SECOND AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
PLAINS TUE-FRI. AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES THERE ARE TYPICAL DETAIL
DIFFS FOR EACH FEATURE BUT OVERALL CLUSTERING APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT BETTER THAN AVERAGE.
THE FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE S-CNTRL MS VALLEY THRU THE MID ATLC EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN RECENT DAYS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH SOME
DETAILS/TIMING OF SUPPORTING MID LVL ENERGY INCL THE EXTENT TO
WHICH FLOW WITHIN AN ELONGATED WEAKNESS OVER SRN CANADA MIGHT HAVE
AN INFLUENCE. THE 00Z UKMET/CMC CONTINUE TO BE ON THE STG SIDE OF
THE ENVELOPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BY DAY 4 TUE. SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND
OF THE 06Z GFS VERSUS THE 00Z RUN IN CONTRAST TO A FASTER/WEAKER
TREND OF THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS OLD 12Z RUN... COMBINED WITH A
GENERAL TREND TOWARD LESS INFLUENCE FROM SRN CANADA FLOW... FAVOR
AN INTERMEDIATE SOLN. CURRENTLY EXPECT BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PCPN FROM THE NRN HALF OF THE APLCHNS INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH
RAIN FARTHER S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM... LIKELY TO HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT... WILL
ORIGINATE FROM A WRN CONUS SHRTWV ON DAY 3 MON AMPLIFYING INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUE. THE MAJORITY CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW SHOULD FORM AS THE CORE OF MID LVL ENERGY
TRACKS NEWD FROM THE S-CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE MID-LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE CORRESPONDING MAJORITY SOLN AT THE SFC IS FOR A
PRIMARY LOW TO TRACK INTO THE TN VLY BY TUE NIGHT-EARLY WED WITH A
SECONDARY LOW TAKING OVER FROM THE MID ATLC COAST NEWD OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE WED ONWARD. THE 00Z/06Z GFS... 00Z ECMWF...
AND 00Z GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON
THIS SCENARIO WITH MODEST DETAIL/TIMING/TRACK DIFFS. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SWD OF CONSENSUS WITH THE MID LVL SYSTEM AROUND
WED-THU THOUGH. ON THE MORE EXTREME SIDES OF THE ENVELOPE... THE
UKMET AND ESPECIALLY CANADIAN SHOW A MORE SERN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM... WHILE MULTIPLE EARLIER ECMWF RUNS HAD INDICATED A
SLOWER/MORE INLAND EVOLUTION. THE CURRENT MAJORITY CLUSTER
PROVIDES THE MOST REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT FCST BASED ON GUIDANCE
BEHAVIOR THUS FAR. FAVORED AREAS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ASSOC WITH
THIS FAVORED SOLN WOULD BE FROM NEAR THE MID MS VLY INTO PARTS OF
THE OH VLY/LOWER GRTLKS INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. LIGHTER SNOW
IS PSBL EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM WEST INTO THE PLAINS. ANY CHANGE
IN ANTICIPATED STORM TRACK WOULD ADJUST THIS FAVORED AREA
ACCORDINGLY. IN THE WARM SECTOR LOCALLY HVY RNFL IS PSBL FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY EWD/NEWD. TO THE N/W OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...
SOME AREAS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SEE WELL BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME.
UPSTREAM A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROF SHOULD MOVE INTO/THRU THE WEST
WED-THU AND REACH THE PLAINS BY FRI. ENSEMBLE MEAN CONSENSUS HAS
BEEN GOOD FOR THIS TROF OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. THE 00Z GFS IS ON
THE SLOW SIDE OF THE SPREAD WITH THE 06Z GFS COMPARING MORE
FAVORABLY TO OTHER SOLNS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A TAD ON THE AMPLIFIED
SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE BUT AT LEAST HAS REASONABLE TIMING IN
CONTRAST TO A NUMBER OF EARLIER RUNS THAT TENDED TO BE
SLOW/AMPLIFIED EVEN COMPARED TO ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST EXPECT LOCALLY HVY PCPN AT SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG THE NRN-CNTRL WEST COAST INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA
RANGE. A BROAD SHIELD OF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW AND LOWER ELEV
RAIN SHOULD THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST...
EMERGING OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
FINALLY ANOTHER BUNDLE OF ENERGY SHOULD APPROACH THE WEST COAST
AROUND DAY 7 FRI. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
FLOW TO SEPARATE INTO A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE
VARYING ENSEMBLE MEMBER FCSTS YIELD RESPECTIVE MEANS THAT DEPICT A
WEAK OPEN TROF. THE OPERATIONAL SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION/SHARPENING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPSTREAM SYSTEM NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. A TONED-DOWN VERSION OF THE
OPERATIONAL EVOLUTION... BY WAY OF SOME INCORPORATION OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS... OFFERS A GOOD STARTING POINT AT THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME MSTR TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST BY FRI.
BASED ON CONTINUITY/TRENDS FAVORING THE CONSENSUS CLUSTER AMONG
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE ABOVE SYSTEMS OF INTEREST... AND THE
06Z GFS COMPARING MORE FAVORABLY TO THIS CLUSTER THAN THE 00Z
GFS... THE DAYS 3-7 MON-FRI FCST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 06Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS BLEND LEANS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DAYS 3-5 AND SLIGHTLY TO
THE MEANS DAYS 6-7... AND HELPS TO DOWNPLAY THE INFLUENCE OF ANY
SOLN THAT BRIEFLY STRAYS FROM THE ULTIMATE PREFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULAR FEATURE.
RAUSCH
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1123 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012
VALID 12Z MON DEC 24 2012 - 12Z FRI DEC 28 2012
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CONUS BUT WITH EMBEDDED
AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS THAT WILL GENERATE MEANINGFUL WEATHER IMPACTS.
THE TWO MIDDLE SYSTEMS OF THE FOUR IN THE SERIES SHOULD BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT... ONE FCST TO REACH THE SRN PLAINS-LWR MS VALLEY
NEXT TUE/CHRISTMAS DAY AND TRACKING NEWD THEREAFTER WITH THE
SECOND AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
PLAINS TUE-FRI. AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES THERE ARE TYPICAL DETAIL
DIFFS FOR EACH FEATURE BUT OVERALL CLUSTERING APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT BETTER THAN AVERAGE.
THE FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM THE S-CNTRL MS VALLEY THRU THE MID ATLC EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN RECENT DAYS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH SOME
DETAILS/TIMING OF SUPPORTING MID LVL ENERGY INCL THE EXTENT TO
WHICH FLOW WITHIN AN ELONGATED WEAKNESS OVER SRN CANADA MIGHT HAVE
AN INFLUENCE. THE 00Z UKMET/CMC CONTINUE TO BE ON THE STG SIDE OF
THE ENVELOPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BY DAY 4 TUE. SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND
OF THE 06Z GFS VERSUS THE 00Z RUN IN CONTRAST TO A FASTER/WEAKER
TREND OF THE 00Z ECMWF VERSUS OLD 12Z RUN... COMBINED WITH A
GENERAL TREND TOWARD LESS INFLUENCE FROM SRN CANADA FLOW... FAVOR
AN INTERMEDIATE SOLN. CURRENTLY EXPECT BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PCPN FROM THE NRN HALF OF THE APLCHNS INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH
RAIN FARTHER S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM... LIKELY TO HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT... WILL
ORIGINATE FROM A WRN CONUS SHRTWV ON DAY 3 MON AMPLIFYING INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUE. THE MAJORITY CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW SHOULD FORM AS THE CORE OF MID LVL ENERGY
TRACKS NEWD FROM THE S-CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE MID-LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE CORRESPONDING MAJORITY SOLN AT THE SFC IS FOR A
PRIMARY LOW TO TRACK INTO THE TN VLY BY TUE NIGHT-EARLY WED WITH A
SECONDARY LOW TAKING OVER FROM THE MID ATLC COAST NEWD OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE WED ONWARD. THE 00Z/06Z GFS... 00Z ECMWF...
AND 00Z GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON
THIS SCENARIO WITH MODEST DETAIL/TIMING/TRACK DIFFS. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SWD OF CONSENSUS WITH THE MID LVL SYSTEM AROUND
WED-THU THOUGH. ON THE MORE EXTREME SIDES OF THE ENVELOPE... THE
UKMET AND ESPECIALLY CANADIAN SHOW A MORE SERN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM... WHILE MULTIPLE EARLIER ECMWF RUNS HAD INDICATED A
SLOWER/MORE INLAND EVOLUTION. THE CURRENT MAJORITY CLUSTER
PROVIDES THE MOST REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT FCST BASED ON GUIDANCE
BEHAVIOR THUS FAR. FAVORED AREAS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ASSOC WITH
THIS FAVORED SOLN WOULD BE FROM NEAR THE MID MS VLY INTO PARTS OF
THE OH VLY/LOWER GRTLKS INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. LIGHTER SNOW
IS PSBL EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM WEST INTO THE PLAINS. ANY CHANGE
IN ANTICIPATED STORM TRACK WOULD ADJUST THIS FAVORED AREA
ACCORDINGLY. IN THE WARM SECTOR LOCALLY HVY RNFL IS PSBL FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY EWD/NEWD. TO THE N/W OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...
SOME AREAS OVER THE PLAINS WILL SEE WELL BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME.
UPSTREAM A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROF SHOULD MOVE INTO/THRU THE WEST
WED-THU AND REACH THE PLAINS BY FRI. ENSEMBLE MEAN CONSENSUS HAS
BEEN GOOD FOR THIS TROF OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. THE 00Z GFS IS ON
THE SLOW SIDE OF THE SPREAD WITH THE 06Z GFS COMPARING MORE
FAVORABLY TO OTHER SOLNS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A TAD ON THE AMPLIFIED
SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE BUT AT LEAST HAS REASONABLE TIMING IN
CONTRAST TO A NUMBER OF EARLIER RUNS THAT TENDED TO BE
SLOW/AMPLIFIED EVEN COMPARED TO ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST EXPECT LOCALLY HVY PCPN AT SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG THE NRN-CNTRL WEST COAST INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA
RANGE. A BROAD SHIELD OF SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW AND LOWER ELEV
RAIN SHOULD THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST...
EMERGING OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
FINALLY ANOTHER BUNDLE OF ENERGY SHOULD APPROACH THE WEST COAST
AROUND DAY 7 FRI. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR
FLOW TO SEPARATE INTO A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE
VARYING ENSEMBLE MEMBER FCSTS YIELD RESPECTIVE MEANS THAT DEPICT A
WEAK OPEN TROF. THE OPERATIONAL SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION/SHARPENING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPSTREAM SYSTEM NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. A TONED-DOWN VERSION OF THE
OPERATIONAL EVOLUTION... BY WAY OF SOME INCORPORATION OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS... OFFERS A GOOD STARTING POINT AT THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME MSTR TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST BY FRI.
BASED ON CONTINUITY/TRENDS FAVORING THE CONSENSUS CLUSTER AMONG
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE ABOVE SYSTEMS OF INTEREST... AND THE
06Z GFS COMPARING MORE FAVORABLY TO THIS CLUSTER THAN THE 00Z
GFS... THE DAYS 3-7 MON-FRI FCST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 06Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS BLEND LEANS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DAYS 3-5 AND SLIGHTLY TO
THE MEANS DAYS 6-7... AND HELPS TO DOWNPLAY THE INFLUENCE OF ANY
SOLN THAT BRIEFLY STRAYS FROM THE ULTIMATE PREFERENCE FOR A
PARTICULAR FEATURE.
RAUSCH
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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There remains a lot of spread in the eventual development of thetrough/closed low via the GFS Ensembles.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Yup, everything has been trending downwards since the initial outlook. It's all gonna boil down to nothing more than a simple little cold front. ...jasons wrote:Those precip maps don't look nearly as impressive as they did just a few days ago. Looks like this front may not bring much more than another thin line of showers. It is the Med range GFS instead of the long range now, so the flopping potential is very high.
It probably won't be just a little cold front, and it should mark the transition into what looks to be a much colder period. Not to mention that the GFS isn't the most reliable model to follow in the medium range...JackCruz wrote:Yup, everything has been trending downwards since the initial outlook. It's all gonna boil down to nothing more than a simple little cold front. ...jasons wrote:Those precip maps don't look nearly as impressive as they did just a few days ago. Looks like this front may not bring much more than another thin line of showers. It is the Med range GFS instead of the long range now, so the flopping potential is very high.
If you're betting against winter weather in Houston you'll usually be right.
Last edited by ronyan on Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Euro certainly suggests we will be below average temp wise across the Region heading into late December.
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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
TXZ091>095-100>107-116>123-220400-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-
325 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 25TH...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
MODELS...THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. ASSUMING THIS TRACK VERIFIES...THIS WOULD SUPPORT A
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. JUST
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...AND MAY ONLY
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR LESS
THAN 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AS THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OCCURS...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO
20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BLOW AROUND
IN THESE WINDS...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY IF TRAVELING AFTER
SUNSET ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THERE REMAINS A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND ANY ASSOCIATED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AT
THIS TIME.
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LITTLE
TO NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN A CHANGE IN
THE AREAL COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
BOTTOM LINE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY. CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THESE DETAILS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
$$
CAVANAUGH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...
HOLDENVILLE...HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...
LAWTON...DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...
WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...
MADILL...DURANT...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...
WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA255 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
...WINTER PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS DAY...
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTER STORM TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WITH
RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW ON CHRISTMAS. STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS THE COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE. SOME
MODELS TAKE THE TRACK OF HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
WHILE OTHERS TAKE IT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THESE TRACKS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HOPEFULLY WILL COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.
WITH THE VARIATION IN FORECAST TRACKS...EVERYONE ACROSS THE STATE OF
OKLAHOMA AND THOSE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO REFINED FORECASTS OVER THE WEEKEND. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK... HAVE A
CONTINGENCY PLAN IN PLACE AND PREPARE FOR WEATHER-RELATED DELAYS AND
CANCELLATIONS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-220500-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
411 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK...
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE UNITED STATES AROUND CHRISTMAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
OVER THE WEEKEND STORM A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEFORE TURNING EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST. SINCE THIS
SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC AWAY FROM THE MORE DENSE
OBSERVATION NETWORK OVER LAND IT WILL BE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE WE CAN FOCUS THE FORECAST MORE. THE BEST ASSESSMENT TODAY
IS THAT SOME WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS ON CHRISTMAS.
WE ARE CURRENTLY POSTING PRELIMINARY SNOW AMOUNT INFORMATION TO OUR
DECISION SUPPORT PAGE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA/DSP/DSP.PHP . GIVEN
THAT THE SYSTEM IS SO FAR FROM THE REGION...ANY SMALL CHANGE IN
STORM TRACK WILL RESULT IN LARGE FORECAST CHANGES NEXT WEEK. SO WE
WOULD EXPECT THE AMOUNTS WE ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING TO BE ADJUSTED A
NUMBER OF TIMES AND THE LOCATION OF THE SNOW SWATH COULD EASILY
SHIFT 5 COUNTIES IN ANY DIRECTION. SO FAR THE MOMENT...THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS AROUND THE HOLIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECASTS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-221200-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOISE CITY...KEYES...GUYMON...BEAVER...
FORGAN...DALHART...STRATFORD...SPEARMAN...GRUVER...PERRYTON...
BOOKER...HIGGINS...FOLLETT...HARTLEY...CHANNING...DUMAS...
BORGER...MIAMI...CANADIAN...VEGA...AMARILLO...PANHANDLE...
WHITE DEER...PAMPA...SHAMROCK...WHEELER...HEREFORD...CANYON...
CLAUDE...CLARENDON...WELLINGTON
340 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
...WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WHERE UP TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A DALHART TO SHAMROCK LINE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING OF THE
SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY SUNSET CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
IF YOU ARE PLANNING HOLIDAY TRAVEL ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS...STATEMENTS
OR ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO BY
VISITING OUR WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AMA...FOLLOWING NWS AMARILLO
ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER...LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR
THROUGH YOUR PREFERED MEDIA OUTLET.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
TXZ091>095-100>107-116>123-220400-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-
325 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 25TH...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
MODELS...THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. ASSUMING THIS TRACK VERIFIES...THIS WOULD SUPPORT A
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. JUST
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
AT THIS TIME SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...AND MAY ONLY
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR LESS
THAN 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AS THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OCCURS...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO
20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BLOW AROUND
IN THESE WINDS...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY IF TRAVELING AFTER
SUNSET ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THERE REMAINS A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND ANY ASSOCIATED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY AT
THIS TIME.
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LITTLE
TO NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN A CHANGE IN
THE AREAL COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
BOTTOM LINE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY. CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THESE DETAILS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
$$
CAVANAUGH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...
HOLDENVILLE...HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...
LAWTON...DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...
WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...
MADILL...DURANT...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...
WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA255 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
...WINTER PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS DAY...
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTER STORM TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WITH
RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW ON CHRISTMAS. STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IN SOME AREAS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS THE COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE. SOME
MODELS TAKE THE TRACK OF HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
WHILE OTHERS TAKE IT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THESE TRACKS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HOPEFULLY WILL COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.
WITH THE VARIATION IN FORECAST TRACKS...EVERYONE ACROSS THE STATE OF
OKLAHOMA AND THOSE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO REFINED FORECASTS OVER THE WEEKEND. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK... HAVE A
CONTINGENCY PLAN IN PLACE AND PREPARE FOR WEATHER-RELATED DELAYS AND
CANCELLATIONS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-220500-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
411 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK...
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE UNITED STATES AROUND CHRISTMAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
OVER THE WEEKEND STORM A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEFORE TURNING EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST. SINCE THIS
SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC AWAY FROM THE MORE DENSE
OBSERVATION NETWORK OVER LAND IT WILL BE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE WE CAN FOCUS THE FORECAST MORE. THE BEST ASSESSMENT TODAY
IS THAT SOME WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS ON CHRISTMAS.
WE ARE CURRENTLY POSTING PRELIMINARY SNOW AMOUNT INFORMATION TO OUR
DECISION SUPPORT PAGE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA/DSP/DSP.PHP . GIVEN
THAT THE SYSTEM IS SO FAR FROM THE REGION...ANY SMALL CHANGE IN
STORM TRACK WILL RESULT IN LARGE FORECAST CHANGES NEXT WEEK. SO WE
WOULD EXPECT THE AMOUNTS WE ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING TO BE ADJUSTED A
NUMBER OF TIMES AND THE LOCATION OF THE SNOW SWATH COULD EASILY
SHIFT 5 COUNTIES IN ANY DIRECTION. SO FAR THE MOMENT...THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS AROUND THE HOLIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECASTS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
340 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-221200-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOISE CITY...KEYES...GUYMON...BEAVER...
FORGAN...DALHART...STRATFORD...SPEARMAN...GRUVER...PERRYTON...
BOOKER...HIGGINS...FOLLETT...HARTLEY...CHANNING...DUMAS...
BORGER...MIAMI...CANADIAN...VEGA...AMARILLO...PANHANDLE...
WHITE DEER...PAMPA...SHAMROCK...WHEELER...HEREFORD...CANYON...
CLAUDE...CLARENDON...WELLINGTON
340 PM CST FRI DEC 21 2012
...WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WHERE UP TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A DALHART TO SHAMROCK LINE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING OF THE
SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY SUNSET CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
IF YOU ARE PLANNING HOLIDAY TRAVEL ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS...STATEMENTS
OR ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO BY
VISITING OUR WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AMA...FOLLOWING NWS AMARILLO
ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER...LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR
THROUGH YOUR PREFERED MEDIA OUTLET.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
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-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
A brief update this morning. The 00Z guidance and shorter range meso models are trending toward a very Dynamic Winter Storm with increasing wintry mischief N and a Severe Weather Episode with a potential Tornado/Severe Storm Threat further S into SE TX/Southern Louisiana and on E starting Christmas Day and extending into the 26th. Folks this is a very dynamic storm system that has the potential to have wide societal impacts and I encourage all those that are weather wise to keep friends and family informed as we enter the busy and hectic Holiday period when folks aren't following the weather as they might during other times. Stay Tuned!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I like to keep an eye on HPC's surface low track in their winter suite of products http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
but after reading SPC's 3 & 4 day forecasts, we might choose to grill our steaks x-mas eve instead of x-mas day... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
but after reading SPC's 3 & 4 day forecasts, we might choose to grill our steaks x-mas eve instead of x-mas day... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
-
wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
Here are the temperature and precip forecasts from the overnight GFS run. Neither, now, is forecasting a major snow event for Oklahoma. Possibly a dusting of snow as far south as Dallas on Christmas afternoon/night. Certainly, nothing here in the way of snow. It's backing off on the additional cold near New Year's, too.
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What do you mean by wide societal impacts?srainhoutx wrote:potential to have wide societal impacts