ENSO Updates

[Ptarmigan]

I was just commenting this morning that we could end Winter in the Warm Neutral state and move into a Weak Nino this Spring/Summer.

Frankly, Weak Nino's are my favorite. Generally wet and cool.

Cold Winters With Weak To Moderate El Nino's
1911-1912
1963-1964
1976-1977
1977-1978
2009-2010

Cold Winters With Strong El Nino's
1904-1905
1972-1973

Some of the coldest El Nino's occurred in which the previous winter was La Nina like in
1963-1964
1972-1973
1976-1977
2009-2010

There have been cold winters in Weak to Moderate La Nina's
1894-1895
1898-1899
1959-1960
1962-1963
1983-1984

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.1ºC

All regions cooled with the exception of Region 4.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

The EURO is forecasting another El Nino developing.



Ben Noll
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... wsrc%5Etfw

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 is the same.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 is the same.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.0ºC
Niño 1+2 2.0ºC

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 cooled. Region 4 is the same. Region 1+2 is near land, so it can change rapidly.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

Forecast model has Neutral by September, October, and November (SON).

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

Region 1+2 and 4 cooled. Region 3 and 3.4 warmed.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC

Region 1+2 is the same. All regions warmed up from last week.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

CFSv2 is forecasting another El Nino through the meteorological fall, which is September, October, and November.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3.4 and 4 warmed. Region 3 remain the same.

I think El Nino is possibly developing.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 2.3ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3.4 warmed. Region 3 is the same from last week. Region 4 cooled. Region 1+2 is in the threshold of very strong. I know it will change next week.

[Ptarmigan]

Could El Nino be building east than going west?
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/ ... wsrc%5Etfw

Paul Roundy
‏ @PaulRoundy1

Follow
More
Is El Niño building from east to west, as in events prior to 1978? http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... 14-00398.1 …

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 2.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled except for Region 4. I expect changes next week.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 2.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3 is the same. Region 3.4 and 4 cooled.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looks like El Niño is slowing ETA

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 2.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed up.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 2.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled from last week.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.8ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. All regions warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. The rest are unchanged.