December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[srainhoutx]

Thursday rains could be in the 1/2 inch order. The Canadian continued with a progressive flow with just a little drizzle for Christmas Eve. HGX Update for today:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

.UPDATE...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
FORM ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE MOVING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. CAPE
VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY
LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BUT VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DOWNBURSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. CURRENT FORECAST
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE WINDS
THIS MORNING.

[TexasBreeze]

Well a quick glance at satellite and a peek out the window shows a lot of clouds around. Instability won't be great but other dynamics could offer up some high winds and isolated tornadoes as the storm system moves through tonight.

[srainhoutx]

A quick look at the 12Z Euro suggest some rains on Thursday. That model also suggests very little moisture during the Christmas Holiday Weekend, but does suggest a possible light freeze for the area. Now back to the severe weather chances for tonight...

[wxman57]

12Z Euro forecasts 1-2" over a large part of SE TX on Thursday. Just a light sprinkle Saturday. Nothing Sunday. Same with Canadian and GFS as far as next weekend. Possibly a light freeze next Tuesday. No snow.

[srainhoutx]

Concerning the winter side of the current storm...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM / NWRN TX PANHANDLE / WRN OK PANHANDLE /
SERN CO / SWRN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 191843Z - 192315Z

INITIALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 INCH/HR WILL
BECOME LIKELY FIRST W OF 102 DEG LONGITUDE /I.E. CO/KS BORDER/ AND
THEN SPREAD INTO SWRN KS. LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL TEND
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL NM WITH A SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE LOW NEWD AND BISECTING THE
TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING INTO SWRN KS. APPRECIABLE SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES --NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING-- BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
NLY WINDS AND COINCIDE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON THE POLEWARD/BACKSIDE SIDE OF THE EWD MIGRATING SURFACE CYCLONE.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLUMN TO GRADUALLY COOL AND SUPPORT A PHASE
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX-OK PANHANDLES.

DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED OVER THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN TURN LEADS TO HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES /21-00Z/. THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
/THUNDERSNOW/ APPEARS TO INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z INVOF THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE. IT IS HERE...THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT MOVES N FROM THE TX S PLAINS AND ENCROACHES UPON THE TX-OK
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITY GUIDANCE AND
EXPERIMENTAL CONVECTION-ALLOWING ENSEMBLE /SSEO/ SHOW A SWATH OF 1
INCH/HR RATES FROM NE NM INTO SWRN KS /LOCALLY HEAVIEST NEAR THE 5
STATE BORDER REGION/. A SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH TIME MAY YIELD INCREASING
COVERAGE OF LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

[redneckweather]

I sure wish I was in Trinidad, CO right now.


http://weather.weatherbug.com/CO/Trinid ... a_id=TRNDD

[srainhoutx]

I sure wish I was in Trinidad, CO right now.


http://weather.weatherbug.com/CO/Trinid ... a_id=TRNDD

Taos and Angle Fire are getting hammered...

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Afternoon Update for the medium range:

12Z UPDATE... ALONG WITH PRIOR CONSENSUS THE 12Z GEFS
MEAN/UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF SUGGEST THE 12Z GFS IS TOO QUICK TO
BREAK DOWN THE WRN NOAM RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
LIKELY LEADING TO EXCESSIVE ACCELERATION OF THE MEAN TROF MOVING
INTO THE EAST. FARTHER EWD THE GFS MAINTAINS BETTER CONTINUITY
WITH ITS 06Z RUN THRU THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SEVERAL HRS SLOWER TO EJECT ROCKIES/PLAINS ENERGY INTO THE EAST
AND THUS IS SLOWER WITH ITS SYS NEAR THE EAST COAST BY SUN. THE
12Z GEFS MEAN STILL HAS BARELY A HINT OF THIS SYSTEM AND 12Z
UKMET/CMC DETAILS CONTINUE TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM GFS/ECMWF
RUNS. BY DAY 7 MON THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE
PRIMARY SOLN ENVELOPE WITH A FLATTER SHRTWV NEARING THE WEST
COAST.

UPDATED PRELIM CONSIDERATIONS SOME DEGREE OF BOTH OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN TRAITS LED TO A FCST BLEND CONSISTING OF
VARYING WEIGHTS OF THE 00Z/06Z GFS... 00Z ECMWF... AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. DAY 7 MON EXCLUDED THE 00Z ECMWF DUE TO A LESS
PROBABLE ERN PAC/WEST COAST SCENARIO. DAYS 3-6 LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR THEIR GREATER DETAIL VERSUS THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BLEND
DUE TO HAVING HIGHER SFC PRESSURES OVER THE EAST THAN THE ECMWF
MEAN SAT-SUN BUT IT COULD BE A VALID COMPONENT FARTHER WWD. DAY 7
MON LEANS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE GEFS/ECMWF MEANS VERSUS THE 00Z/06Z
GFS TO REFLECT LARGE SCALE CONSENSUS. THE FINAL FCST REFLECTS
ONLY MINOR DETAIL ADJUSTMENTS WHERE SUGGESTED BY 12Z GUIDANCE.



CNTRL-SRN ROCKIES TO EAST COAST... EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WEAK/PROGRESSIVE... A WAVE TRACKING NEWD FROM THE WRN GULF COAST
THU-FRI SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF LOCALLY MDT/HVY RNFL
FROM THE LWR MS VLY INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLC WITH SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER AMTS AWAY FROM THIS AXIS AND ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT THAT
SHOULD MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL START AS AN AREA OF SNOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
VICINITY ON THU. PCPN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LGT ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST FRI-SAT AND INCREASINGLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ASIDE
FROM PERHAPS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MSTR SHIELD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT OVER HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR CLOSER THE
EAST COAST... IMPACTING THE WEEKEND PCPN FCST OVER THE ERN STATES.
IF SYSTEM EVOLUTION WERE TO OCCUR IN A WAY TO SUPPORT SNOW... THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW WOULD BE FROM
THE CNTRL GRTLKS INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. YET ANOTHER AREA OF
MSTR MAY SURGE NEWD FROM THE GULF SUN-MON WITH YET TO BE
DETERMINED NWWD EXTENT. COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL
SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES-SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH
READINGS OF AT LEAST 10-20 F BELOW NORMAL ON MULTIPLE DAYS. SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE QUITE WARM LATE THIS WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER.


WEST COAST TO NRN ROCKIES... ONE AREA OF LGT PCPN SHOULD AFFECT
THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF FAIRLY MODEST MSTR POSSIBLY REACHING THE PAC
NW AROUND SUN-MON. MEAN RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION
SHOULD SUPPORT A STEADY WARMING TREND DURING THE FCST PERIOD.

[srainhoutx]

The latest HRRR is sniffing an impressive line of storms for early tomorrow morning in SE TX...

[srainhoutx]

No change concerning the Slight Risk Area from the SPC...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST
TX...

CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...WITH FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE SUPPRESSED DAYTIME HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...STRONG AND INCREASING WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL POSE A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF TX.

[ticka1]

Red River NM link to webcam

http://www.redriver.org/pages/webcam2/high

Had plans to go there between Christmas and New Year's with family but had to cancel - kicking myself now due to all the beautiful snow!!! WAAAAAAAaaaaaaaa

[srainhoutx]

MCD issues for I-35 corridor...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 192058Z - 192300Z

A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS GRADUALLY INCREASING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL TO E CNTRL TX...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH LATER TODAY.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A N/S BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM
WRN OK INTO TX...JUST W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO RELATIVELY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PROFILES. THE 20 Z FWD SOUNDING DID INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 600 J/KG WITH A LARGE HODOGRAPH...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
LOWER PORTION IS BEING MADE INEFFECTIVE DUE TO A RELATIVELY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS FAR N.

TO THE S...A NARROW AXIS OF LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXISTED FROM THE CNTRL TX COAST TOWARD
AUSTIN. HERE...RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITIES
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY GROWING WARM SECTOR CONVECTION. A LIGHTNING
STRIKE WAS RECENTLY NOTED WITH ACTIVITY S OF FT. WORTH.

CONTINUED FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION...MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH CELLS MAY FORM IN A LINEAR
FASHION ALONG THE FRONT...SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN EVOLUTION
INTO SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY IN A MERGED LINE...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO MAY OCCUR GIVEN SUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ANY SUPERCELL
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ONE
NEGATIVE FOR COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE RELATIVELY MERIDIONAL STORM
MOTIONS WHICH WILL TEND TO MOVE THE STORMS AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY.

..JEWELL.. 12/19/2011


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

[JackCruz]

Amazing how things change so quickly in the weather world. Be right back, I'm about to have a "caps lock" moment.

[srainhoutx]

We are getting heavier showers in NW Harris County at this time. The Western areas are seeing increasing showers and possible storms beginning to develop. A squall line is developing along the I-35 Corridor and heading E.

[wxman666]

We are getting heavier showers in NW Harris County at this time. The Western areas are seeing increasing showers and possible storms beginning to develop. A squall line is developing along the I-35 Corridor and heading E.

Srain: Do you think the severe wx threat still exists or do you think the shower activity has hindered that?

[srainhoutx]

We are getting heavier showers in NW Harris County at this time. The Western areas are seeing increasing showers and possible storms beginning to develop. A squall line is developing along the I-35 Corridor and heading E.

Srain: Do you think the severe wx threat still exists or do you think the shower activity has hindered that?

HGX is thinking that activity today has help to stablize things a bit. Areas N of Houston appear to have the greatest potential for severe storms. That said, the developing line near Austin will need to be monitored as HRRR and other Rapid Refresh guidance suggest northern areas of the Houston Metro could still see stronger storms overnight.

[biggerbyte]

General rule of thumb, and is a bit simplistic, but....
Walk outside and see how the climate feels to you. If it does not feel hot and stagnant/uncomfortable, then most likely you will not see "severe" weather. Severe storms need fuel to build. A stable atmosphere will limit local development, and weaken cells that move into it.

[wxman666]

General rule of thumb, and is a bit simplistic, but....
Walk outside and see how the climate feels to you. If it does not feel hot and stagnant/uncomfortable, then most likely you will not see "severe" weather. Severe storms need fuel to build. A stable atmosphere will limit local development, and weaken cells that move into it.

Feeling sticky and muggy in Cypress. Been drizzling/raining here since mid afternoon.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, don't be shocked if all you get is a few showers out of this event and get left wondering what all of the talk was about. Like last event, folks to the north are getting in on the big action. We'll see how it all plays out in the next few hours. We have showers streaming up from the south, but the southern edge of the "squall line" is currently falling apart.

Stay tuned for changes, if any.

[JackCruz]

Got a pretty good soaking around my area. On and off rain. About 40 mins ago we got a heavy downpour...now it's ona nd off..mostly light. RAIN AT LAST!