January 2025

[DoctorMu]

Euro

Consistent with the Canadian Ensemble and ICON. There's a sharp gradient south of Hwy 1**. It's going to be touch and go, but the cold can overperform.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Id rather have it be 105 degrees than 40’s and cold rain, the cold with just rain is wasted cold

That’s dumb. 105 sucks always.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

A few thoughts.

1). Anyone talking about Lucy doesn’t understand that analogy. Lucy would be consistent modeling showing snow up until 24 hours away and nothing happening.

2). Those of us in the western and northern portions of HGX, can very well still get winter weather.

3). In these borderline events and this has always been a borderline event even 300 hours out, you should never expect a lot of you live central (urban) and south HGX. If you expect it, you’ll be disappointed 8 times out of 10 and that’s being generous.

4). If you want snow in the southern portions of HGX, you must have a true Arctic outbreak with deep cold into the gulf.

5). We are still a bit out. Nothing is settled and these systems usually surprise. We may be staring down an ice storm in CoCo, Austin, Waller and points north.

[DoctorMu]

Did yall forget that Beryl hit us already? It's going to snow.

Well according to 57 it didn't have a snowballs chance in hell of coming to texas and if u called him out on that you were crucified on 2k..so no it's not going to snow here lol

Exactly.

Coco, Jason, and I saw the curve and were well ahead of it with Beryl.

We're going to have a mess on our hands. We'll have nearly 72 hours of cold BEFORE the storm hit. Climo is actually in our favor. Jan 9 is the coldest day of the year in CLL. It's a pretty good set-up. Snow also takes some magic in SETX. It could happen, especially heading NW...

[Dls2010r]

I’m in Santa Fe. I’m just fine with the rain. I hate ice.

[DoctorMu]

Id rather have it be 105 degrees than 40’s and cold rain, the cold with just rain is wasted cold

That’s dumb. 105 sucks always.

105°F is always worse than Hwy 1*5.

[Stratton20]

I mean to be far I really dont know anyone who enjoys cold rain and in the 40’s lol, maybe not 105, but id still take warm weather over that miserable crap lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Another point, this system was always the step down for us. Week 3 and 4 of this month look so much better for us.

[Brazoriatx979]

Week 3 and 4 will be 5 6 and so on..always is..it's coming its coming

Then when it comes it's not as stout as previously thought

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I mean to be far I really dont know anyone who enjoys cold rain and in the 40’s lol, maybe not 105, but id still take warm weather over that miserable crap lol

I’ll run in it. I won’t run when it’s above 85.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Week 3 and 4 will be 5 6 and so on..always is..it's coming its coming

Then when it comes it's not as stout as previously thought

You don’t understand what we are saying then. Since 10 days ago, we thought there might be a chance here, but the pattern and its analogs were always primed later in the month.

This one and what’s evolving are not the same.

[Cpv17]

Week 3 and 4 will be 5 6 and so on..always is..it's coming its coming

Then when it comes it's not as stout as previously thought

You don’t understand what we are saying then. Since 10 days ago, we thought there might be a chance here, but the pattern and its analogs were always primed later in the month.

This one and what’s evolving are not the same.

Yep, ditto!

[Stratton20]

I will admit the ensembles do look pretty interesting mid- late month, in fact im really
impressed how much in agreement they are this far out lol

[DoctorMu]

This system depends on when a tongue of warm Pacific air at 7000-10,000 feet moves through and time of the next push of cold air. It's beginning to look like a mixed bag - leaning toward more freezing north and west: cold rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow.

[Brazoriatx979]

So is there another cold out break lurking in a week or two?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So is there another cold out break lurking in a week or two?

Past the 18th through the first week of February looks well below normal.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

This system depends on when a tongue of warm Pacific air at 7000-10,000 feet moves through and time of the next push of cold air. It's beginning to look like a mixed bag - leaning toward more freezing north and west: cold rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow.

I think CS will be right there in the transition zone.

[tireman4]

Maybe a topic under the heading Meteorology 101 might help. Folks can ask questions that can be answered by pro and amateur mets. They have that at American Weather.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Maybe a topic under the heading Meteorology 101 might help. Folks can ask questions that can be answered by pro and amateur mets. They have that at American Weather.

I like that.

[Brazoriatx979]

Maybe a topic under the heading Meteorology 101 might help. Folks can ask questions that can be answered by pro and amateur mets. They have that at American Weather.

I like that.

Absolutely. Some of us(me) are still ignorant lol