January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[redneckweather]

My son and I went to play disc golf just a bit ago and it became a big time turd floater. We were a few hundred yards from the truck and by the time we got to it, we were soaked to the bone. It had some good lightning and thunder in it also. I overlooked our rain chances today also!!

[Andrew]

Current look:

[Ptarmigan]

Also, if you want to get technical, the coldest of air in dec 89 went east...

Doesn't mean much considering it reached 7 here

It depends on how far south the jet stream goes.

[srainhoutx]

Well, a little over 1/2 inch of rain so far and more heading in. Folks need to remember this will not be the last of the rain chances prior to the Arctic front. Sunday is looking nasty as well.

[dulles1995]

Jim Cantore just said this air will come south. and texas may comes close to breaking the 1047 pressure record.

[rnmm]

If we get rain before the arctic front, will we have the threat of icy conditions on our roads, or is it expected to dry up before the front makes it here? I know I sound like a dummy when it comes to weather, but I was just curious.

[Andrew]

Update:

[srainhoutx]

If we get rain before the arctic front, will we have the threat of icy conditions on our roads, or is it expected to dry up before the front makes it here? I know I sound like a dummy when it comes to weather, but I was just curious.

The front should arrive after the Upper Low moves through. That feature will assist, if you will, the surge of Arctic air south. There are concerns of wintry weather E of our area as the storm wraps up in the Gulf. Welcome dulles1995.

[TxLady]

We are getting a heck of a lot of pea-sized hail, lots of thunder and lightning.

[dulles1995]

thx

[sleetstorm]

So far, it appears as though this arctic surge is going to be a predominantly arid one perhaps with some light frozen precipitation. If all that southeast Texas receives are daytime highs in the thirties during all or most of next week I will be happy. Yet, if daytime temps next week turn out to be in the twenties then hey even better.

[biggerbyte]

Rain??? Boooorrrrrrriiiiinnnggggg!!!!

Let's talk about snow baby... Lol

Isn't it funny how we can prioritize weather events? Just a week ago seeing rain around here was a huge deal. Tonight, hardly anyone noticed. Bigger fish to fry???

This time next week we will be getting much, much colder.

[Paul]

18z little quicker to shunt east but not by much....0z in a few hours....night crew is ready..

[Andrew]

18z little quicker to shunt east but not by much....0z in a few hours....night crew is ready..

You staying up for Euro Paul?

[BiggieSmalls]

I know nothing about weather compared to some on this forum...but i'm guessing the east-west fluctuation will be common over the next few days.

[srainhoutx]

00Z suite has started. I'd be watching this weekend... Oh, and good night. You night owls can handle it...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

[wxman57]

I doubt that tonight's model runs will shed any light on what may happen next week with the Arctic air. We'll have to wait another 3-4 days for that. By then, the Arctic air either will or won't be in NW Canada where it has a chance to come down, and we can get a look at how cold it is.

[Andrew]

00Z NAM

[Ptarmigan]

By the weekend, we should have a better idea of how cold it will be and from there we should prepare for it. I think it is a good idea to treat a major Arctic blasts as a hurricane. The computer models sniff them out and there is a lot of uncertainty, like a hurricane. Also, Houston does not often get hit by powerful Arctic blasts.

[Ptarmigan]

18z little quicker to shunt east but not by much....0z in a few hours....night crew is ready..

I don't think being shunted to the east will have much of an impact. Also, it is how far south the jet stream goes. The Arctic air mass looks to be a deep one.