December Weather Discussion. Will We See Rain?

[tireman4]

Gosh that is awfully close....goodness.

[TexasMetBlake]

So the Euro was kinda sorta not really correct then. LOL

[Kludge]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
930 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2010



Uh-oh...NWS forecast offices didn't coordinate this morning. Look at the graphic, and then here's the DFW office's Lufkin forecast:

Tonight: A chance of rain after 9pm, mixing with snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[TexasMetBlake]

Huh? Lufkin is part of the Shreveport CWA.

[biggerbyte]

We are going to be in the mid 30s here tonight. Last night I mentioned varying results across Texas with this event. Let's see the end results come Wednesday morning.

[srainhoutx]

Actually Shreveport issued the FWD update this morning as well...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1006 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS BY
TONIGHT. WILL FOCUS MORE ON THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. FOR TODAY...CURRENT PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND
NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WILL BE MADE.

[TexasMetBlake]

Wow! Interesting.

[TexasMetBlake]

I just noticed that rain chances have gone way up for the entire CWA now. 50% for CLL. 70% for The Woodlands, 80% for Bush.

[tireman4]

Wxman57.....I wonder what he has to say.....

[wxman57]

Funny you should ask. Models are still in good agreement for an all-rain event for Houston. Forecast soundings have all clouds/precip in above-freezing air here. However, just to our east and north of Lake Charles, the forecast soundings have all clouds and precip in SUB-freezing air but with about 3000 ft of above-freezing air near the surface. That's a snow profile for north of LCH, but the question is - can it survive to reach the ground before melting? Maybe some of it can.

As for the Lufkin area, forecast soundings do indicate a snow profile, but with above-freezing air in the lower 5000 ft. And it's a very short-duration event. Could some flakes make it to the ground there? Maybe. Most likely time would be in the early morning hours between midnight and sunrise. After sunrise it should be all over.

[srainhoutx]

So close...

[TexasMetBlake]

I noticed that HGX mentions rain/snow now for Houston County...at least parts of it.

[Kludge]

I noticed that HGX mentions rain/snow now for Houston County...at least parts of it.

Please give me the url where you're able to see the forecast before it makes it to the official NWS site. Thanks...

[TexasMetBlake]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

[redneckweather]

Man, I'm sitting at 58 degrees right now. So how am I supposed to get down to the mid to upper 30's tonight under cloud cover and a southeast wind?

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
241 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN SHOWING SW TROF PUSHING SEWD INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS...AND LONG WAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE SW IS FCST TO CONTINUE A QUICK
SEWD MIGRATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE
PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF N TX BY EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN...AND
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALONG AND N OF A SHERMAN TO EMORY
LINE. AREAS ALONG AND N OF A WACO TO PALESTINE LINE WILL LIKELY SEE A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX AFTER ABOUT 03Z. PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN LIQUID. SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN
TX...ALTHOUGH A 5-6 KFT NEAR SFC WARM LYR WILL MELT ANY FROZEN
PRECIP BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF
INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...
WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

[srainhoutx]

Shreveport issues a Winter Weather Advisory...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
319 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM UNTIL 6 AM
WEDNESDAY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-112-
080530-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0008.101208T0400Z-101208T1200Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-CASS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MONROE...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...ATLANTA
319 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO 1 INCH...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN FALLING LATE THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AS
RAIN BUT COULD MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION WHERE
SNOW IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...THUS
ENDING THE WEATHER THREAT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER...SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON TREES...GRASSY
AREAS...AND ELEVATED SURFACES INCLUDING SOME BRIDGES. SOIL TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL VERY WARM THUS ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS IS NOT
EXPECTED.

[helloitsb]

Shreveport issues a Winter Weather Advisory...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
319 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM UNTIL 6 AM
WEDNESDAY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-112-
080530-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0008.101208T0400Z-101208T1200Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-CASS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MONROE...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...ATLANTA
319 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO 1 INCH...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN FALLING LATE THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AS
RAIN BUT COULD MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION WHERE
SNOW IS HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...THUS
ENDING THE WEATHER THREAT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER...SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON TREES...GRASSY
AREAS...AND ELEVATED SURFACES INCLUDING SOME BRIDGES. SOIL TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL VERY WARM THUS ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS IS NOT
EXPECTED.

That is supposed to be our winter weather advisory

[tireman4]

You never know...( I know Wxman57 says not gonna happen)

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...
STRATO CU DECK AROUND 5KFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NE ACROSS SE TX
THIS AFT. EXPECT MOISTURE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AROUND
MATAGORDA BAY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING NORTH AND
INLAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME TSTM ACTIVITY WELL
OFFSHORE WHERE 60+ DW PTS WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM
THE COAST TO NW AREAS TONIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHWR ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW FORMS IN THE NW GULF. DECIDED TO BUMP
POPS UP FOR TONIGHT CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS. WILL HAVE SOME
CHC POPS CONTINUING NEAR THE COAST WED MORNING...WITH ALL PRECIP
ENDING BY LATE MORNING.

ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND LATE TONIGHT LIGHT RAIN MIGHT
BRIEFLY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW AS THE SFC WET BULB TEMP IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 30S. SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...
SO IF THIS DOES OCCUR...NO ACCUM IS EXPECTED. MENTIONED THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR HOUSTON AND TRINITY COUNTIES.