September 2019 - Warm End of September

[srainhoutx]

I had a 5 minute tropical downpour shortly after 5PM. I certainly was not expecting that.

[unome]

I had a 5 minute tropical downpour shortly after 5PM. I certainly was not expecting that.

same here, it was lovely !

[Rip76]

I like the new header title better now.

[jasons2k]

Looks like Katy and areas out that way got a nice storm tonight.

[Cpv17]

2 more inches today here in central Wharton County brining my total up to 4.6” for the week.

[don]

I've noticed quite a few of the 0z global/mesoscale models either show the development of a depression/weak tropical storm early next week off the Texas coast (making landfall along the middle Texas coast) or get close to doing so FWIW. The Upper level low now in the eastern gulf is what some of the models show developing early next week as the low transitions to the surface.

[stormlover]

0z UKMET develops the Gulf system into a TS before moving into Houston next week

[don]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2


4. large area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico is primarily associated with a upper-level low pressure
area. Only slow development of this system is likely during the
next couple of days. However, conditions could become more
conducive for development early next week as the system moves over
the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[jasons2k]

Hmmm. It’s that time of year. I’ve been looking around and a few Mets have been posting that we’ll have ideal conditions for storm development across the Atlantic basin for the next few weeks. If something’s gonna happen, now is the time...

[Rip76]

[Cpv17]

Wow, the 0z Euro looks awesome!!

[srainhoutx]

Chances for possible tropical/sub tropical development have increased this morning to 10%-30% for the Gulf Disturbance. We could see an INVEST declared later today or early tomorrow, so probably wise to get tabs on the weather this weekend.

09142019 8 AM TWO two_atl_5d0.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Humberto, centered just east of the northwestern Bahamas.

1. A fast-moving tropical wave is located about 950 miles east
of the Lesser Antilles. This system is producing limited shower
activity, and significant development of this system is not
anticipated during the next several days while it moves
quickly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. An elongated area of disturbed weather is located about 650 miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves westward
across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. The area of disturbed weather that was located midway between the
Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands has merged with the
easternmost tropical wave mentioned above. Development of the
original disturbance is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

4. A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico is primarily associated with a upper-level low pressure
area. Only slow development of this system is likely during the
next couple of days. However, conditions could become more
conducive for development early next week as the system moves
over the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[jasons2k]

Looks like your initial 40% was pretty spot-on

I just want rain (but not flooding). I’m only asking the weather gods the thread a needle for us lol

Stout band out in the Gulf this morning on our local radar. The NWS has increased our rain chances for next week, topping out at 60% on Wednesday.

[Texaspirate11]

JASONS gonna get some rain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! woohoo

[Rip76]

Jeff Linder this morning.

Tropical disturbance over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move toward the NW Gulf early next week.

A large mid and upper level low pressure system over the central Gulf of Mexico will move westward over the next 24-48 hours allowing deep tropical moisture over the central Gulf to move toward the TX coast by late Sunday afternoon. On the eastern flank of this upper level system an area of disturbed weather possibly associated with a surface trough will move slowly from the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward the W/NW Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Conditions in the NW Gulf of Mexico may become more conducive for a tropical depression or tropical storm to develop as the surface trough nears the TX coast Monday-Wednesday. There is some support from the various global models that a weak surface low may develop near the TX coast and drift inland either over the mid or upper TX coast early to mid next week.

Rain chances will be increasing starting late Sunday and more likely early next week as tropical moisture moves into the area. Should a defined surface circulation develop, this would help to focus rainfall…some heavy…potentially over portions of the region. At this time the heaviest rainfall looks to be in the Mon-Wed time period and for areas mainly south of I-10, but this will likely change depending on the formation of any surface low.

NHC currently gives the system a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days.

[redneckweather]

That kinda came out of no where. Bring it. My grass looks like 2012.

[Katdaddy]

The GOM does look interesting this morning. I will do my best to send the coastal rains up there to you JASONS! Hopefully you will finally get some well needed rain up there next week. Hopefully this disturbance remains a TD or weak TS at the most if it develops but we remember our Humberto 2007 which went from a tropical low to CAT 1 in 19 hours however that due to ideal conditions for development. This disturbance is fighting shear and dry air for now.

[TexasBreeze]

The best thing for everybody wanting rain is seeing this system be large and sprawling so more areas see rain.

[superunknown]

I’ve been in the pattern of two miles down the road is getting an inch of rain while my neighborhood gets seven drops since the end of July.... I’m hoping for a few days of a nice soaking rain

[redneckweather]

I’ve been in the pattern of two miles down the road is getting an inch of rain while my neighborhood gets seven drops since the end of July.... I’m hoping for a few days of a nice soaking rain

We must be neighbors.