JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible

[jasons2k]

Yeah, just goes to show how fragile our hydro and vegetation system is. After so many years of drought, the first hint of dryness or heat sends everything back into stress pretty fast. Amazingly, I've seen a few oak trees turn to complete toast in the last week or so. They were already under stress, the rain helped them hobble along and leaf out, but they can't sustain any dryness or heat to speak of.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, just goes to show how fragile our hydro and vegetation system is. After so many years of drought, the first hint of dryness or heat sends everything back into stress pretty fast. Amazingly, I've seen a few oak trees turn to complete toast in the last week or so. They were already under stress, the rain helped them hobble along and leaf out, but they can't sustain any dryness or heat to speak of.

The long-term drought was taking its toll on on my trees through 2013. Too little water, too much sodium in the water, or too much water, etc. Even with drip hoses, I never could get it right. Then I adapted a Jack in the Beanstalk protocol. When it's not raining I water 2 times a week (in addition to sprinklers) but only with a 5 gallon bucket. 1-2 times /month with Miracle-Gro, SuperThrive, Medina Plus...and alternating Stay Green lawn fertilizer, sulfur pellets, and gypsum. The leaves over the past 2 years have been much darker green in the summer and the leaves hang on and stay green longer in the Fall. Last year's July-October drought would have crushed my current set in the past.

[srainhoutx]

Our hunting lease just South of Rye and a bit NE of Cleveland has yet to dry out. The main road into the 10,000 acre land management lease has dried up, but getting back into the Piney Woods without our 4 wheeler or side by side is still a bit difficult. Fortunately for those wanting some rain, it appears we will have an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity as a backdoor frontal boundary works its way from the NE toward our Region. Will also need to monitor for any nocturnal Convective Complexes dropping SE in the NW flow aloft. The Upper pattern to end June suggests a Ridge in the 4 Corners and an Eastern Trough developing. Deeper tropical moisture may pool South of the stalled frontal boundary increasing our rain chances, particularly Monday into Tuesday. It appears a typical summertime pattern will persist as we end the month of June. Fortunately, there are no drought conditions anywhere to speak of across Texas.

The attachment 06252016 Day 3 to 7 Surface Charts 5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif is no longer available

[Ptarmigan]

Yeah, just goes to show how fragile our hydro and vegetation system is. After so many years of drought, the first hint of dryness or heat sends everything back into stress pretty fast. Amazingly, I've seen a few oak trees turn to complete toast in the last week or so. They were already under stress, the rain helped them hobble along and leaf out, but they can't sustain any dryness or heat to speak of.

We are always one notch away from drought.

[Kludge]

We are always one notch away from drought.

In Northern Grimes County we are 1/8 of a notch away.

[Rip76]

Second good rain we've had this morning in the Pearland area.

[Kludge]

I don't know which model our local NWS office tends to prefer... but they ought to reevaluate its use.

FORTY PERCENT CHANCE for my local grid today? Really? We got squat.

I'm starting to use commercial services more and more... as I think most will do when their livelihood depends on accurate forecasting. Srain and KHOU have a much better track record than the folks at the NWS lately.

Steve will likely defend them... and rightly so for political correctness and to keep the peace between this board and the government folks... but I sure hope the upcoming model improvements will have a positive impact.

When in drought and when in doubt... please say 10% and don't get folks hopes up.

[srainhoutx]

The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (Upper Low) that moved inland over the Mexico Gulf Coast last Thursday night/Friday has meandered over West Texas yesterday and overnight and ushered in some instability with higher moisture/lifting in the atmosphere that assisted in the scattered showers across the area yesterday. The upper low appears to be attempting to drift East while an area of subsidence, or drier air filters into the Gulf South of Louisiana. That drier air may inhibit our rain chances today, but higher PW's near or above 2 inches begin to pool across our Region tomorrow as increase further on Tuesday as a backdoor frontal boundary sags SW and looks to increase our rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. The GEFS individual ensemble members are in good agreement regarding the rainfall potential for Tuesday and even the ECMWF is increasing rain chances with each update. It is also noteworthy that the ECMWF attempts to develop an Upper Low South of the Louisiana and Upper Texas Coast late Wednesday into Thursday as it meanders West. Hopefully those neighborhoods that have not seen any appreciable rain in the last couple of weeks will get their shot as the pattern change of a Desert SW Upper Ridge and an Eastern US Trough pattern becomes established.

[Rip76]

Looks like that drier air coming in from the Louisiana area is getting pushed back a little.
Getting more pop up showers/thunder at the house this morning.

[srainhoutx]

That West Texas TUTT Upper Low has been dropping some very heavy rainfall amounts across portions of Val Verde County just NE of Del Rio on up to San Angelo. Radar estimates 7 to 8 inches of rain have fallen..so far.



Some of the models indicate increasing moisture exceeding 2+ may pool ahead of a slow moving boundary the is expected to drop SW tomorrow where we may see pulse thunderstorms and possibly colliding boundaries from the seabreeze and a pre frontal trough associated with that 'cool' frontal boundary. Areas beneath the very slow moving cells could pick up 1 to 2 inches of heavy rainfall in short order, but pin pointing exactly where and which neighborhoods or locations will be very difficult due to various mesoscale feature we cannot know beyond a few hours.

It is also noteworthy that 2 big anniversaries in Tropical History along the Texas/Louisiana Coast occurred yesterday. In 1957, Major Hurricane Audrey formed rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall along the SW Louisiana Gulf Coast.

06272016 Audrey_before_landfall.gif (176.17 KiB) Viewed 4352 times

In 1986, a stalled frontal boundary spawned CAT 1 Hurricane Bonnie which made landfall a along Sea Rim Park along the Upper Texas Coast. Both Tropical Cyclones formed very rapidly with little advance warning and as we have been discussing sine April, those sort of Rapidly developing TC in our backyard is why we stress being prepared early, particularly in our Region. History teaches us that Tropical Cyclones can develop rapidly, with little warning lead time and why we need to prepare ahead of time for any potential Tropical Troubles that may come our way.

[jasons2k]

Better hope for rain in the next few days. The spigot cuts off after that.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271141
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.AVIATION...
Expect similar scenario as yesterday with isolated to scattered
convection developing from daytime heating and moist flow off the
Gulf. With weak mean flow...sea breeze could help focus storms
this afternoon. Already have a few showers SW zones streaming in
off the Gulf. Could see some afternoon thunderstorms as well once
air mass destabilizes further. coverage in models suggests
isolated to scattered...model soundings show around 1500J
CAPE...which may be overdone but would be enough to support
thunder. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow as
cold drop drops south through the back door. Reilly

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Upper air analysis from 00z soundings and current water vapor
imagery shows a weak upper low over west Texas and upper level
ridge over the Arklatex. Both features should weaken today as
upper level ridge over the 4 corners and southern Rockies becomes
more established. Based on 00z CRP/LCH soundings, precipitable
water values across the area are around 1.8 inches. Based on model
soundings, convective temps should be around 90F today so it may
take a bit more heating to support convection. Boundary layer flow
looks to turn more to the NE and allow for higher moisture to
develop along a frontal boundary. This may allow for better rain
chances N and E of Houston this afternoon. Overall think scattered
showers will be possible with isolated thunderstorms. CAPE looks
to reach moderate level by afternoon with 1500-2500 J/kg across
the area. Model soundings do show an inverted V from 850mb and
below. Some of the stronger storms could produce downburst winds
in additions to brief heavy rainfall.

By Tuesday an upper level trough should deepen over the Great
Lakes with the ridge stretching from the Great Basin to southern
Rockies. Frontal boundary will push south and southwest towards
the area and increase moisture ahead of it. Precipitable water
values reach 2-2.2 inches with CAPE of more than 2500 J/kg. This
environment is more conducive for heavy rainfall and isolated
severe threat with hail/downburst winds. Storm motions will also
be quite slow so heavy rainfall will be a concern and could see
some stronger storms producing higher rain rates 1-2 inches an
hour. With the pulse nature of convection, storms may only exist
for an hour or two. Mesoscale outflow boundary interaction will
determine where new storms may develop and if updrafts can be
maintained for extended periods of time.

Wednesday the frontal boundary should have pushed to near the
coast with possible wind shift well into the Gulf. Dewpoints may
lower some Wednesday into Wednesday night behind the boundary or
for areas mainly north of I-10. The drier air may limit
thunderstorm chances to along the coast and offshore in the Gulf
Wednesday into Thursday. GFS is trending towards a drier forecast
with lower rain chances headed into the weekend since moisture
levels decrease. ECMWF is not so robust with a frontal push like
the GFS but it has not been as aggressive with rain chances as the
GFS had been. The ECMWF like the GFS has most of the precipitation
off the Gulf coast Wednesday into Thursday.

Friday through Independence day weekend the GFS has become a bit
more aligned with the ECMWF in that the upper level ridge expands
over Texas by Sunday/Monday. This will support lower rain chances
for the weekend and higher day time max temps. The ridge should
persist over much of Texas for much of next week. It looks like if
SE Texas does not get any rainfall through the next 3 or 4 days
then it might be awhile until another rain event.

Overpeck

MARINE...
Winds will be light and variable over the waters through Tuesday
given high pressure and weak pressure gradient over the area. A
weak cold front will approach the waters Tuesday and stall out
near or off the coast Tuesday evening...bringing increasing
thunderstorm chances with locally higher winds and seas possible
in and near thunderstorms. GFS most progressive with this
front...actually pushing it across the waters while other models
stall it out closer to the coast. An onshore flow will eventually
redevelop on Thursday but will not begin to strengthen until
Saturday as low pressure over W TX begins to deepen. Reilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 76 92 75 94 / 20 10 50 20 20
Houston (IAH) 94 77 93 75 93 / 30 20 60 40 30
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 88 78 88 / 20 20 50 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[Katdaddy]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
200 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

TXZ213-271945-
HARRIS TX-
200 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM
CDT...

AT 159 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GREATER HEIGHTS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK
VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...
GREATER FIFTH WARD...FOURTH WARD...SPRING BRANCH WEST...NEARTOWN /
MONTROSE...GREATER EASTWOOD...DOWNTOWN HOUSTON...GREATER HEIGHTS...NEAR
NORTHSIDE HOUSTON...GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA...NORTHSIDE /
NORTHLINE...AFTON OAKS / RIVER OAKS AREA...GREATER THIRD WARD AND
SPRING BRANCH NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
316 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

BRAZORIA TX-HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-
316 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN BRAZORIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
HARRIS AND EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

AT 316 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...OR NEAR PEARLAND. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEARLAND...EASTERN SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...STAFFORD...NORTHWESTERN
MANVEL...FRESNO...GREATER HOBBY AREA...WESTERN SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...
MEADOWS PLACE...ARCOLA...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...THOMPSONS...GOLFCREST /
BELLFORT / REVEILLE...MINNETEX...BRAYS OAKS...SOUTH ACRES / CRESTMONT
PARK...HOBBY AIRPORT...FORT BEND HOUSTON...SUNNYSIDE AND FIFTH STREET.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 272027
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
327 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have popped up across the
region...both along the baybreeze/seabreeze and an axis of higher
PW air drifting in from east Tx and La. This activity should
persist into the evening and gradually dissipate with the loss of
heating.

Expecting to see some redevelopment offshore before sunrise in
association with a landbreeze. Diffuse wind shift/frontal
boundary/moisture axis will again become the focus for another
round of tstms across east Tx again during the day on Tue. This
activity should sag SW...and the concern is that it might
eventually collide with the seabreeze/baybreeze during the day
Tue. Confidence regarding timing & exact location where (if) this
occurs fairly low...but the metro area many times is positioned
within the targeted area. Localized heavy rain & strong winds a
possibility.

Scattered...mainly diurnally driven shra/tsra will remain in the
fcst thru the remainder of the work week. Upper ridge builds in
from the west over the holiday weekend which should suppress
precip chances, but allow for climbing temperatures. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be light and variable over the waters through the
end of the week. A weak cold front will approach the waters Tuesday
and stall out near or off the coast Tuesday evening...bringing
increasing thunderstorm chances with locally higher winds and seas
possible in and near thunderstorms. An onshore flow will eventually
redevelop on Thursday but will not begin to strengthen until
Saturday as low pressure over W TX begins to deepen. Tides will
remain 0.5 to 1.0 feet above normal through Tuesday night. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 93 76 93 75 / 30 50 50 20 10
Houston (IAH) 76 93 75 91 75 / 30 60 30 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 89 79 89 80 / 20 50 40 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[BlueJay]

No rain for us, yet. My hummingbird bush looks like it needs a drink. Time to hand water.

[DoctorMu]

Some outflow boundaries approaching - hopefully, a source for instability and showers tomorrow. Last big chance north of Navasota before the Death Ridge establishes itself.

[Texaspirate11]

Can see all those beautiful rain clouds and lightning from a distance
~Signed
~~feeling ignored in the bay area.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

A weak surface boundary coupled with a southward moving area of higher moisture and afternoon heating will set the stage for scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon.

Diffuse boundary from NE TX SE into LA will drift SSW today helping to provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Strong surface heating this morning working on a moist and unstable air mass will get things going likely before noon from Huntsville to Liberty. Steering flow is from the NNE and this will bring activity toward the region from EC LA and deep E TX this afternoon. SSW moving thunderstorms into a super-heated air mass tend to produce strong winds and this will be possible this afternoon. Air mass will become very unstable by mid afternoon and expect a slight severe downburst wind threat with the storms.

Storms may continue well into the evening hours….especially SW of Houston toward Matagorda Bay. Diffuse front will drift toward the coast tonight, but having a hard time actually finding the boundary besides on the dewpoints. If enough dry air filters southward on Wednesday rain chances may be reduced over the region except for the immediate coast northward to near US 59.

Thursday-4th of July Weekend:
Upper level ridge over the SW US will build over TX through this period reducing rain chances to near zero and increasing high temperatures into the mid to upper 90’s. Will see very little change through the period once this ridge sets up over the area.

[DoctorMu]

Hope we see some action today!!


Had my fingers crossed with all the May rain, ENSO switch and a Western block that the Death Ridge might not pay us a visit until August...but nooooooooo.

We'll be pulling for mild tropical mischief and lemon-ade soon enough!