May Weather Discussion.

[srainhoutx]

We will need to see how any Meso events to our N play out overnight.

[djjordan]

Overnight Discussion NWS AFD Houston/Galveston

Northern third of CWA has mention of Severe possible .... gonna have to keep a watch out today on what develops upstream. .


DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD
TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
N AND NW OF SE TX. A POTENT SHRT WV TROF IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER KANSAS TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS SHRT WV
TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS N TX LATER THIS
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF ANY OF THIS POTENTIAL
CONVECTION CAN MAKE IT INTO N AREAS OF SE TX LATER TODAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION MOVING SE INTO
N AREAS TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
HEATING. I EXPECT THE CAP TO PREVENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY S OF I-10 TODAY...HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFT WITH HEATING IN
A LESS CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. COULD SEE SOME PULSE SVR TSTMS DUE TO
THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE. THE GFS IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS DEVELOPING JUST N/NW OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND MOVING SE ACROSS THE NE 1/3 OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IF
THIS OCCURS THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO HAVE CHC POPS THIS AFT AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS AREAS N OF A CLL TO CXO TO LIBERTY LINE. WILL ALSO MENTION
THE POSSIBILITY OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFT AND TONIGHT.
HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BETTER CONFIDENCE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
ORGANIZED STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THE TEMP FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR
90 OR A LITTLE ABOVE FOR INLAND AREAS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHC FOR
PRECIP AFTER THU NIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 33

&&

[srainhoutx]

12Z NAM suggests showers and storms possible for the Northern half of the forecast area this afternoon/evening along what appears to be a boundary. We shall see.

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Watch 195 up for parts of Central and N TX. Does not include the Houston Area WFO at this time.

[wxdata]

Same as yesterday, 12z NAM shows no cap by late afternoon, while the 12z GFS continues a cap over the area by late afternoon. For at least today, it'll all depend if any boundaries can make it this far south...

[wxdata]

So it begins, Tornado Warning for Hopkins County (east of Dallas.)

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
207 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 207 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR MIDLOTHIAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
OVILLA AROUND 230 PM CDT...
WAXAHACHIE...OAK LEAF...RED OAK AND PECAN HILL AROUND 245 PM CDT...

[weatherguy425]

Watch the outflow boundary moving out of central Louisiana.

[Andrew]

Potentially tornadic storms into the I-45 corridor up near the speed traps like Palmer.


But not looking like it'll affect our weather unless that line of broken cells really starts to backbuild...

Well it is back building as of right now and like weatherguy said watch the boundaries. There is one in LA and another one coming off the storms close to Dallas.

[srainhoutx]

[Katdaddy]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 195...

VALID 202320Z - 210015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 195 CONTINUES.

SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF E TX/WITHIN WW
195...AND WITH CONTINUED SEWD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SERN EDGE OF THE
WATCH...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL
STORMS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS NAVARRO
CO. AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THIS...CONVECTION MAY MOVE OUT OF THE
WW...ALONG WITH SEVERE -- AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADO -- POTENTIAL.
THUS...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED INTO ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SERN TX.

..GOSS.. 05/20/2010


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 31969763 32029518 31379441 31029418 30539406 30279547
30449853 31969763

[srainhoutx]

Certainly has progressed SE...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
641 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HILL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NAVARRO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR MALONE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HUBBARD AROUND 650 PM CDT...
DAWSON AND MOUNT CALM AROUND 655 PM CDT...
COOLIDGE AROUND 715 PM CDT...
TEHUACANA AROUND 725 PM CDT...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL FREESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 658 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR WORTHAM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
KIRVIN AROUND 715 PM CDT...
FAIRFIELD AROUND 730 PM CDT...

[wxdata]

Spotters watching rotating wall cloud just north of Waco @ 7:50pm

[wxdata]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 195...

VALID 210100Z - 210200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 195 CONTINUES.

TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...BUT SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES. WITH WW SET TO EXPIRE AT 21/02Z...REPLACEMENT WW WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL ROBUST STORMS CONTINUING S AND E OF
THE DFW METROPLEX...INCLUDING FOUR CELLS EXHIBITING DISTINCT
ROTATION AND SUPERCELL REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURES. HAVING SAID
THAT...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY -- WHERE STORMS ARE
ONGOING -- APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LIMITED...POSSIBLY ACCOUNTING
FOR THE LACK OF TORNADO REPORTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECT STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT LIKELY LIMITED TO HAIL AND/OR
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THIS...WILL LIKELY REPLACE WW 195
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NEAR AND S OF THE ONGOING STORMS

[wxdata]

New Severe Thunderstorm Watch for sections of SE TX until 1am

HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Houston, Madison, Walker [TX] till May 21, 1:00 AM CDT

[weatherguy425]

Need to watch showers developing out ahead of the main line North of Bryan.

[Andrew]

Looks like the storms are in the weakening process so I doubt they will make it into Harris County:

[C2G]

Hope they hold together. No, I don't want tornados in the area, but a good light show would be nice.

[wxdata]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND PARTS OF ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 197...

VALID 210226Z - 210400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 197
CONTINUES.

WHILE AN OVERALL GRADUAL DECREASE IS UNDERWAY...SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES LOCALLY ACROSS WW 197.

SEVERAL STRONG STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO PARTS OF ERN
TX...WHERE MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS. HOWEVER...SOME
STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...COINCIDENT WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY.

TWO ROTATING STORMS PERSIST HOWEVER ACROSS MCLENNAN COUNTY
ATTM...AND POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.
A NEW CELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER MCCULLOCH COUNTY AS
WELL...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THUS...WHILE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE...LOCAL THREAT
PERSISTS.