May 2025
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5402
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I truely think the unsettled pattern stays in place through at least the 3rd week of june, looking at the ensembles through the 20th of june, not really a dry look at all, no big death ridge either, just decent daily chances for rain, summer looks a little bit delayed according to the ensembles
I just hung a sign that reads, "No Ridging Allowed, EXCEPT for when there is a Hurricane in the Gulf"Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu May 29, 2025 2:23 pm I truely think the unsettled pattern stays in place through at least the 3rd week of june, looking at the ensembles through the 20th of june, not really a dry look at all, no big death ridge either, just decent daily chances for rain, summer looks a little bit delayed according to the ensembles
It should keep things cooler.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu May 29, 2025 2:23 pm I truely think the unsettled pattern stays in place through at least the 3rd week of june, looking at the ensembles through the 20th of june, not really a dry look at all, no big death ridge either, just decent daily chances for rain, summer looks a little bit delayed according to the ensembles
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
920
FXUS64 KHGX 301211
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
711 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
As of 330 AM CDT, the weak cold front with associated showers and
thunderstorms were approaching the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
region and should be moving into this region around 5 AM. Shortly
after, the front is expected to move into the Houston metro area
and slow down as it approaches the coast. Will likely see showers
and storms reach the metro areas around sunrise to mid morning
timeframe and may affect the morning commute as periods of heavy
rainfall and gusty winds could occur with the stronger storms.
Its recommended to check the updated forecast and monitor the
radar and road conditions before you start your commute.
Most models still show the boundary meandering along the coastal
areas for much of the day and pushing it further into the Gulf
waters later tonight as surface high pressure builds over N-NE
TX. Thus, we could see periods of showers and thunderstorms
continuing into the evening hours, in particular for areas near
and south of I-10. That being said, forecast soundings do show
less instability by the mid afternoon hours. However, the linger
weak frontal boundary along with other outflow boundaries may be
enough to at least keep isolated activity through later in the
afternoon or early evening. Rain chances will significantly
decrease late evening to early tonight once the front pushes
southward and into the Gulf waters and drier air moves in from the
N-NE. With respect to temperatures, we will see highs today in
the lower to mid 80s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region
and in the mid 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. The lows are expected
to be in low 60s over the Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 60s
for areas north of I-10, and the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.
On Saturday, skies will start off somewhat cloudy for a good
portion of Southeast TX, but are expected to become partly cloudy
by the afternoon hours. Not really expecting much rain activity
given there will be capping in place and the influence of the
surface high pressure. However, a few isolated showers may still
occur over the Matagorda Bay region and Gulf waters. The highs on
Saturday will generally be in the mid to upper 80s and winds will
be light and variable...a pretty nice day to spend outdoors
Tranquil conditions will persist into Saturday night, along with
light winds and lows mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s inland.
Cotto - 24
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
The long term portion of the forecast continues to be not the most
exciting bit of meteorology around. While there will be nuances
through next week (most of which don`t look to be easily forecast
at this range), the general vibe of next week will be
"seasonable". This entails warm temperatures, humid - but not
unusually so - conditions, and with ridging generally the more
dominant upper air feature, mostly fair weather but carrying the
potential for some isolated seabreeze showers/storms.
Okay, so, some of those nuances we can discuss a little bit, even
at long range. Sunday morning should still be relatively cool
farther inland. Onshore winds should be back sometime late
Saturday evening or in the overnight, but since these winds should
be pretty light, dewpoints will only be starting to rebound for
coastal areas. They, however, will probably already begin to see
the return of warmer nights.
Something that is showing up in the longer range ensemble
guidance, and also a bit in the NBM, is the potential for a
Tuesday that is a bit breezier than the other days of the week. I
suspect this is due to another weak cold front making its way into
the Red River Valley. I doubt this front even makes it to our
area, much less pushes through, but it seems it`s strong enough
and close enough that we`ll see the pressure gradient tighten
across our area, resulting in some more wind that day.
It is consistent enough in the Euro ensemble, that we actually
get a weak, 0.5 value in the Extreme Forecast Index for winds that
day! And this is where I keep in mind that by "extreme", that
refers to the high ends of the EPS climatology. And we are now
getting to a time of year where winds in the middle to upper teens
might manage to meet that threshold. So when the EFI says
"extreme", they mean "higher than most days this time of year" and
not "something to remind you of a tropical cyclone". Even here
where we`re on guard annually for tropical storms or hurricanes,
that kind of wind is a very rare event and doesn`t really show up
in these statistical analyses.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
A weak cold front passing through SE TX today will lead to areas
of showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the boundary. A mix
of MVFR to VFR conditions can be expected as these storms pass
through. Also, VRB gusty winds along with frequent lightning and
small hail is possible with the stronger storms. Some clearing may
be seen over the CLL/UTS/CXO sites later in the morning, but sites
closer to the coast may see periods of showers and storms
through the afternoon hours as the front stalls near the coast.
IAH is in the tricky area where it may clear out by early
afternoon, but also has the potential to see some iso storms. Will
likely be another day of a few AMDs with TEMPOs and PROB30 in
place. Conditions improve tonight, although some areas may still
see MVFR cigs from time to time.
Winds will be VRB as the front passes through, then become N-NE after
the FROPA. Winds will be 5 KTS or less overnight.
Cotto - 24
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
Light onshore flow should prevail until the arrival of the next
cold front on Friday, along with continued opportunities for
showers and a few storms punctuating stretches of fair weather. A
period of east to northeast winds is expected in the front`s wake
on Saturday, but become onshore again by Sunday. This onshore
flow will persist deep into the new week, and though it will help
support some isolated seabreeze showers/storms, any of this
activity will be quite muted. Swell and onshore flow are expected
to gradually increase during the first half of next week. Along
with this, tides and rip current potential at Gulf-facing beaches
also look to gradually drift upwards towards the middle of next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 67 86 68 / 70 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 88 71 88 71 / 50 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 76 85 77 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto /24/
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Cotto /24/
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 301211
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
711 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
As of 330 AM CDT, the weak cold front with associated showers and
thunderstorms were approaching the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
region and should be moving into this region around 5 AM. Shortly
after, the front is expected to move into the Houston metro area
and slow down as it approaches the coast. Will likely see showers
and storms reach the metro areas around sunrise to mid morning
timeframe and may affect the morning commute as periods of heavy
rainfall and gusty winds could occur with the stronger storms.
Its recommended to check the updated forecast and monitor the
radar and road conditions before you start your commute.
Most models still show the boundary meandering along the coastal
areas for much of the day and pushing it further into the Gulf
waters later tonight as surface high pressure builds over N-NE
TX. Thus, we could see periods of showers and thunderstorms
continuing into the evening hours, in particular for areas near
and south of I-10. That being said, forecast soundings do show
less instability by the mid afternoon hours. However, the linger
weak frontal boundary along with other outflow boundaries may be
enough to at least keep isolated activity through later in the
afternoon or early evening. Rain chances will significantly
decrease late evening to early tonight once the front pushes
southward and into the Gulf waters and drier air moves in from the
N-NE. With respect to temperatures, we will see highs today in
the lower to mid 80s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region
and in the mid 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. The lows are expected
to be in low 60s over the Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 60s
for areas north of I-10, and the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.
On Saturday, skies will start off somewhat cloudy for a good
portion of Southeast TX, but are expected to become partly cloudy
by the afternoon hours. Not really expecting much rain activity
given there will be capping in place and the influence of the
surface high pressure. However, a few isolated showers may still
occur over the Matagorda Bay region and Gulf waters. The highs on
Saturday will generally be in the mid to upper 80s and winds will
be light and variable...a pretty nice day to spend outdoors
Tranquil conditions will persist into Saturday night, along with
light winds and lows mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s inland.
Cotto - 24
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
The long term portion of the forecast continues to be not the most
exciting bit of meteorology around. While there will be nuances
through next week (most of which don`t look to be easily forecast
at this range), the general vibe of next week will be
"seasonable". This entails warm temperatures, humid - but not
unusually so - conditions, and with ridging generally the more
dominant upper air feature, mostly fair weather but carrying the
potential for some isolated seabreeze showers/storms.
Okay, so, some of those nuances we can discuss a little bit, even
at long range. Sunday morning should still be relatively cool
farther inland. Onshore winds should be back sometime late
Saturday evening or in the overnight, but since these winds should
be pretty light, dewpoints will only be starting to rebound for
coastal areas. They, however, will probably already begin to see
the return of warmer nights.
Something that is showing up in the longer range ensemble
guidance, and also a bit in the NBM, is the potential for a
Tuesday that is a bit breezier than the other days of the week. I
suspect this is due to another weak cold front making its way into
the Red River Valley. I doubt this front even makes it to our
area, much less pushes through, but it seems it`s strong enough
and close enough that we`ll see the pressure gradient tighten
across our area, resulting in some more wind that day.
It is consistent enough in the Euro ensemble, that we actually
get a weak, 0.5 value in the Extreme Forecast Index for winds that
day! And this is where I keep in mind that by "extreme", that
refers to the high ends of the EPS climatology. And we are now
getting to a time of year where winds in the middle to upper teens
might manage to meet that threshold. So when the EFI says
"extreme", they mean "higher than most days this time of year" and
not "something to remind you of a tropical cyclone". Even here
where we`re on guard annually for tropical storms or hurricanes,
that kind of wind is a very rare event and doesn`t really show up
in these statistical analyses.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
A weak cold front passing through SE TX today will lead to areas
of showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the boundary. A mix
of MVFR to VFR conditions can be expected as these storms pass
through. Also, VRB gusty winds along with frequent lightning and
small hail is possible with the stronger storms. Some clearing may
be seen over the CLL/UTS/CXO sites later in the morning, but sites
closer to the coast may see periods of showers and storms
through the afternoon hours as the front stalls near the coast.
IAH is in the tricky area where it may clear out by early
afternoon, but also has the potential to see some iso storms. Will
likely be another day of a few AMDs with TEMPOs and PROB30 in
place. Conditions improve tonight, although some areas may still
see MVFR cigs from time to time.
Winds will be VRB as the front passes through, then become N-NE after
the FROPA. Winds will be 5 KTS or less overnight.
Cotto - 24
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
Light onshore flow should prevail until the arrival of the next
cold front on Friday, along with continued opportunities for
showers and a few storms punctuating stretches of fair weather. A
period of east to northeast winds is expected in the front`s wake
on Saturday, but become onshore again by Sunday. This onshore
flow will persist deep into the new week, and though it will help
support some isolated seabreeze showers/storms, any of this
activity will be quite muted. Swell and onshore flow are expected
to gradually increase during the first half of next week. Along
with this, tides and rip current potential at Gulf-facing beaches
also look to gradually drift upwards towards the middle of next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 67 86 68 / 70 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 88 71 88 71 / 50 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 76 85 77 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto /24/
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Cotto /24/
MARINE...Luchs
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms with wind damage, large hail,
and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening
across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and Southeast...
An Enhanced Risk for damaging thunderstorm winds has been introduced
with this outlook for portions of eastern GA, much of SC and
central/eastern NC.
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern
CONUS today, as a vigorous embedded shortwave trough moves eastward
from the lower Ohio Valley towards VA/NC. In response to this
shortwave trough, a deepening surface cyclone will move eastward
from central KY into the Mid Atlantic by evening. A trailing cold
front will move across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and
Virginia. Wind profiles across the warm sector of the deepening
cyclone will be seasonably strong, but instability is expected to be
tempered by weak midlevel lapse rates and substantial cloud cover.
As large-scale ascent with the approaching shortwave trough develops
across the warm sector, thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and near the cold front and move generally east. Latest hi-res
guidance suggests a predominantly linear mode across the Enhanced
Risk area, where confidence regarding greater destabilization is
highest. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary severe
hazard, although a tornado threat will exist primarily with bowing
segments.
Farther north across VA/MD/DE, confidence regarding storm mode is
lower, with some guidance suggesting the potential for
discrete/semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front. These storms
would have the potential for severe wind/hail, and potentially pose
a tornado risk with stronger/more sustained storms. If confidence
increases regarding the expected coverage of severe storms in this
area, then higher severe probabilities may be warranted with the
1630z Convective Outlook.
Along the Gulf Coast from southeast TX into the western FL
Panhandle, moderate/strong buoyancy and 25-30 kts of westerly shear
will be present. Here, scattered clusters of strong/severe storms
posing a risk for mainly damaging winds are expected to develop this
afternoon.
...Eastern WI into northern IL/IN and Lake Michigan...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong northerly jet will
move southward across parts of the Great Lakes during the afternoon
and evening. Modest low-level moisture will limit buoyancy, but
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft
will support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and
evening. Localized damaging gusts and hail could accompany the
strongest storms.
...Eastern NM into Far West TX...
Low-level southeasterly flow will maintain modest boundary-layer
moisture across parts of NM and West TX. Moderate instability and 25
kt midlevel northwest flow could support a few strong storms capable
of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts this afternoon and
evening.
..Bunting/Bentley.. 05/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms with wind damage, large hail,
and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening
across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and Southeast...
An Enhanced Risk for damaging thunderstorm winds has been introduced
with this outlook for portions of eastern GA, much of SC and
central/eastern NC.
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern
CONUS today, as a vigorous embedded shortwave trough moves eastward
from the lower Ohio Valley towards VA/NC. In response to this
shortwave trough, a deepening surface cyclone will move eastward
from central KY into the Mid Atlantic by evening. A trailing cold
front will move across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and
Virginia. Wind profiles across the warm sector of the deepening
cyclone will be seasonably strong, but instability is expected to be
tempered by weak midlevel lapse rates and substantial cloud cover.
As large-scale ascent with the approaching shortwave trough develops
across the warm sector, thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and near the cold front and move generally east. Latest hi-res
guidance suggests a predominantly linear mode across the Enhanced
Risk area, where confidence regarding greater destabilization is
highest. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary severe
hazard, although a tornado threat will exist primarily with bowing
segments.
Farther north across VA/MD/DE, confidence regarding storm mode is
lower, with some guidance suggesting the potential for
discrete/semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front. These storms
would have the potential for severe wind/hail, and potentially pose
a tornado risk with stronger/more sustained storms. If confidence
increases regarding the expected coverage of severe storms in this
area, then higher severe probabilities may be warranted with the
1630z Convective Outlook.
Along the Gulf Coast from southeast TX into the western FL
Panhandle, moderate/strong buoyancy and 25-30 kts of westerly shear
will be present. Here, scattered clusters of strong/severe storms
posing a risk for mainly damaging winds are expected to develop this
afternoon.
...Eastern WI into northern IL/IN and Lake Michigan...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong northerly jet will
move southward across parts of the Great Lakes during the afternoon
and evening. Modest low-level moisture will limit buoyancy, but
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft
will support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and
evening. Localized damaging gusts and hail could accompany the
strongest storms.
...Eastern NM into Far West TX...
Low-level southeasterly flow will maintain modest boundary-layer
moisture across parts of NM and West TX. Moderate instability and 25
kt midlevel northwest flow could support a few strong storms capable
of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts this afternoon and
evening.
..Bunting/Bentley.. 05/30/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Man, I hope this holds together cuz this is looking promising down my way.
Yeah, y’all might get a few sprinkles. Getting hammered down here now.
Well I can definitely say I wasn’t expecting this over here this morning. Easily over 5” for the week now.
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 1012
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
June starts in a couple days. Anyone want to take a shot towards how summer will be? I am thinking the ridge stays nearby enough to deflect any tropical activity away, but that is all about timing and strength at that time. Hopefully a more active seabreeze than in recent years too. I will take that.
Not only did we not get dry-slotted, we have been getting inundated. This is glorious!
I haven’t had to water all week. Yay
I haven’t had to water all week. Yay
I’m pushing 5” as we speak. I will probably top 6” before this event is through. Thine eyes hath not seen such liquid beauty in quite some time (outside of Beryl).
The MCS mostly split around CLL. Only another 0.2 inches. At least it's cloudy.
The seabreeze sets up after a nice Saturday. We have a 30% chance midweek.
However, per the models and Ensembles, don't expect a lot of rain through mid-June. Mostly popcorn showers and seabreeze stuff.
The seabreeze sets up after a nice Saturday. We have a 30% chance midweek.
However, per the models and Ensembles, don't expect a lot of rain through mid-June. Mostly popcorn showers and seabreeze stuff.
I will say, the mesoscale models missed this MCS completely. None of them had the line intact around the HOU metro.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5402
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Pattern stays on the wetter side likely through most if not all of june, based on the the fact we have wetter soils, my bet is that the death ridge will not in fact set up shop over texas this summer, i have the ridge setting up more over the western us- desert sw, daily rain chances look decent the next couple of weeks