February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Mr. T]

i am not on the board for a few hours and look what happens. Has the cold air gone away? I wish SUnday would get here so we would know what's going to happen. How could the cold air be there one minute, then go away the next?

What?

[tireman4]

i am not on the board for a few hours and look what happens. Has the cold air gone away? I wish SUnday would get here so we would know what's going to happen. How could the cold air be there one minute, then go away the next?

From Wxman57:



Ok, folks, I wanted to take a look at the 12Z runs today to see how they agreed with or differed from last night's run (Euro and GFS in particular). Here's what I see. The GFS appears to be making a well-known error in hanging up the Arctic air along the Red River on Monday night, waiting for the upper-level disturbance to pass before driving the cold air south. The Euro and Canadian don't appear to be making this "mistake". They both drive the Arctic air straight south to the Texas coast by sunrise Tuesday.

There's cold air in place across Texas on Tuesday and it appears that there will be a disturbance moving across the state on Tuesday. The Canadian is weakest with the disturbance, indicating little post-frontal precip. GFS is strongest (and slowest) of the 3 main models, holding energy back well to the west. But this is a common error with the GFS. The Euro, while aligned with the GFS on the 00Z run is now about 8 hours or so faster than the GFS with the passing upper-level feature. This does look more reasonable than the much slower GFS.

What does this mean for Texas? I think that Arctic air will be in place across the state with widespread precipitation on Tuesday. For us, it looks like most of that precip will be cold rain (temps in the 40s). But up north, say from the Hill Country through Waco to Dallas and eastward, temps may be sub-freezing. This could set the stage for a period of freezing rain changing to sleet and finally snow on Tuesday as the precip ends. Too early to estimate any amounts or precise locations of winter precip. I suppose we can't rule out the possibility that the Houston area could see some sleet and maybe (just MAYBE) a slight chance of a few snow flurries as the precip ends Tuesday afternoon/evening. By no means would I forecast such a thing at this time, though.

Now what happens after Tuesday? All 3 models drive the high center straight south to west-central Texas on Wed-Thu. Canadian and Euro are MUCH colder than the GFS. For example, the GFS predicts 850mb (5000ft) temps over Houston around +3F Thursday morning. The Canadian forecasts -8C and the Euro about -11C. That's a tremendous difference. I think the GFS is probably a good bit too "warm" with that forecast but I really can't tell just how cold it might get until the cold air is actually on the move south down the Plains on Sunday.

With it's very cold 850mb temps, the Euro is forecasting 2 meter temps of 20F for Houston on Thursday morning. This is about 5 degrees colder than it forecast with the last front, when IAH reached 26 degrees. GFS only forecasts upper 20s. I think lAH may record a low on Thursday of between 19 and 24 degrees based on a combo of the Euro/CMC projected temps. Not a 1989 or 1983 event by far, but the coldest air of the season.

[Ptarmigan]

I was here for 83 and 89 as well as many of our older members (hush you mature folks ). I believe wxman57 was here for 89.

Too young to remember 1983. I remember 1989 freeze well. It was the coldest ever in Houston I can remember. Also, there was snow and it was the dry kind. A rarity in Houston!

[Ptarmigan]

OK folks, the 12Z Euro suggests a Coastal Low developing in S TX as the Arctic boundary is diving S deep into TX. A very strong upper air disturbance is still to our W and progresses across TX much further S than we have seen. In Euro world this is a classic winter storm signature. Will it verify, we will see...

If that model panned out, it would be very interesting. Perhaps snow.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Ensembles look a bit different than the operational output...

[snowman65]

Don't worry....it will fizzle out....mwahahaha

[tireman4]

And you call yourself Snowman...LOL

[Baseballdude2915]

SHOULDNT BE LONG UNTIL OUR "FRIEND" COMES AND POSTS ABOUT SNOW AND ICE, WE NEED IT NOW.

lol.

[biggerbyte]

Hello, AZ. We've missed you, buddy. Make it happen, man.

[tireman4]

Nooo .....the Snow Gun!!!!

[txsnowmaker]

AGAIN,,,I ASK OF EVERYONE: PROVIDE NOTHING BUT POSITIVE ANALYSIS. WXMAN HAS BEEN DEAD WRONG BEFORE,,THE DECEMBER 2008 SNOW EVENT WAS A PRIME EXAMPLE. "FLURRIES" TURNED INTO 2.2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR ME.
PLEASE DO NOT BE NEGATIVE, LOOK AT THE MODELS AND BE NOTHING BUT POSITIVE WITH THE ANALYSIS. DAN IS WATCHING US,,HE NEEDS OUR ENERGY SO HE CAN HELP GET THIS DONE.

Arizona Desert, I would take comfort in the fact that wxman57's analysis leaves open the possibility of flurries in our area and we are still about five days out. In addition, there are mentions of potential lagging shortwaves and coastal lows by respected and long-time members like srain. Who knows yet what next week will bring,but there are still "exciting" and interesting scenarios in play it seems to me.

[tireman4]

To piggyback that.. this system and it potential is still giving him pause....he has not written anything off at all. If anything, he is still keeping it on the table.

[perk]

AGAIN,,,I ASK OF EVERYONE: PROVIDE NOTHING BUT POSITIVE ANALYSIS. WXMAN HAS BEEN DEAD WRONG BEFORE,,THE DECEMBER 2008 SNOW EVENT WAS A PRIME EXAMPLE. "FLURRIES" TURNED INTO 2.2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR ME.
PLEASE DO NOT BE NEGATIVE, LOOK AT THE MODELS AND BE NOTHING BUT POSITIVE WITH THE ANALYSIS. DAN IS WATCHING US,,HE NEEDS OUR ENERGY SO HE CAN HELP GET THIS DONE.

The roller coaster on these long range events can be brutal. I welcome an attitude like yours.

[BiggieSmalls]

Dallas TV now showing highs around or at freezing on Tuesday - Wednesday, 40-60% of winter weather on Tuesday, lows in the low 20's - high teens. Good bump down from what was being forecast yesterday.

http://www.myfoxdfw.com/subindex/weather

[biggerbyte]

It is our forecast that counts, folks. As of now, the NWS has not wavered.

I expect, just like the rest of us, they will lock on come the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Don't forget our members/Forum viewers spread all across TX and beyond. Biggiesmalls is in Dallas, I see...

[wxman666]

Don't forget our members/Forum viewers spread all across TX and beyond. Biggiesmalls is in Dallas, I see...

I envy that, lol.

[tireman4]

Wxman57 stated..."Paraphrasing....

Look for the local NWS to start dealing with this later this week. He was thinking 3-4 days out..soooo....

[biggerbyte]

Yes, I know. I just want the local guys and gals to realize that our forecast may be very different than what folks in Dallas might see. It would be sad to get someones hopes up thinking that this or that is going to happen here.

So much potential for all of Texas. Some more than others. Gosh, it is going to be so disappointing if our area is left out of the fun.... Again! Come on the weekend.

[harpman]

No one ever mentioned the 18Z GFS....... Still warmer than the euro?