2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[sambucol]

Also, there’s a system coming up over or near the Yucatan area into the GOM. The person said the Euro is showing it as a hurricane probably heading towards Texas around Aug 27. Has anyone here seen that Euro run?

Yes, that’s the one that has my attention compared to the first one. But still can’t overlook the first one.

That one looks formidable, but I agree on watching the first one, also.

[Stratton20]

Seeing a few stronger members showing up on that EPS run, my expectation is a tropical low or depression for now, but then again we have seen some really big surprises when it comes to gulf mischief, always got to keep that in mind as well

[sambucol]

Seeing a few stronger members showing up on that EPS run, my expectation is a tropical low or depression, but then again we have seen some really big surprises when it comes to gulf mischief, always got to jeep that in mind as well

Yes to Gulf surprises

[Ptarmigan]

Seeing a few stronger members showing up on that EPS run, my expectation is a tropical low or depression for now, but then again we have seen some really big surprises when it comes to gulf mischief, always got to keep that in mind as well

So very true.

[don]

0Z ICON Tropical storm into Port Aransas/Rockport.

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[Stratton20]

CMC further north with a TS into brownsville, and yet another meh run for everyone from the pessimistic GFS model, man that model just wants to suck the joy out of SE texans lol

[don]

0Z GFS came in more potent also, shows the system close to a Depression near landfall around Aransas.And now agrees with the EURO and ICON on bringing the rain shield inland along a localized corridor along the track of the Low.A decent change from previous runs that pretty much dried out the wave almost completely upon landfall.

Screenshot 2023-08-17 at 23-30-47 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png

[don]

0Z Canadian came in more potent also.With a landfall in South Padre as a Tropical Storm.(Previous run earlier today had just a tropical low into Mexico)

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[Stratton20]

00z RGEM with an organizing TS

[DoctorMu]

That's a lot of agreement toward a mid-Texas coast lemonade solution. Move the path just a bit more NE-ward...but not too much!

[Stratton20]

Euro has a closed low or depression making landfall south of corpus, need that to trend further north

[sambucol]

Has the trend been more north?

[Stratton20]

Sambucol, somewhat actually, THE cmc trended north, GFS north, Euro South, still no realy solid agreement yet

[Stratton20]

Overnight ensemble guidance has trended more aggressive especially the EPS which bow has quite a few stronger members now , big split now, half favor the middle texas coast and the other group North mexico

[Cpv17]

Most members on the 0z EPS take it into the mid TX coast and models are slowly trending for this to come in a bit more organized.

[brazoriatx]

57...

I'm thinking 70% chance NHC will call it a TD Monday night/Tuesday morning as it approaches the TX coast. All it would take will be one squall with a 35kt wind by recon to call it a TS. However, this does not appear to have a favorable environment that could lead to a strong TS. Kind of like Arlene earlier this year. It will cause winds 25-30 kts offshore and rough seas Mon/Tue as it passes. No wind issue into Texas, only beneficial rainfall. Unfortunately, Houston to Beaumont and southern LA parishes may not get much rain if it moves ashore as far south as Corpus Christi or near Matagorda. I'm hoping it moves ashore farther north. Not a drop of rain here since July 3. My oak tree is shedding its leaves.

[Cpv17]

57...

I'm thinking 70% chance NHC will call it a TD Monday night/Tuesday morning as it approaches the TX coast. All it would take will be one squall with a 35kt wind by recon to call it a TS. However, this does not appear to have a favorable environment that could lead to a strong TS. Kind of like Arlene earlier this year. It will cause winds 25-30 kts offshore and rough seas Mon/Tue as it passes. No wind issue into Texas, only beneficial rainfall. Unfortunately, Houston to Beaumont and southern LA parishes may not get much rain if it moves ashore as far south as Corpus Christi or near Matagorda. I'm hoping it moves ashore farther north. Not a drop of rain here since July 3. My oak tree is shedding its leaves.

I really don’t see it to be that unfavorable of an environment to be completely honest. Shear looks light and it’ll have a ULAC over it as well. Only limiting factor in my eyes would be if it ingests some dry air into its circulation from TX. I’d give it a decent chance to become a weak to moderately strong tropical storm.

[brazoriatx]

Space city is confident we ain't getting shi*

[tireman4]

Well, Matt Lanza is part of Space City Weather and this is what he said..

Let me stop being coy about this. Yes, there will be rain next week, almost certainly. But I have a suspicion it's going to be more localized stuff with some areas feasting and more areas in rain famine. Still plenty of uncertainty here, but I am firmly in the skeptic camp.

[brazoriatx]

Gotta love it...half think we will half don't lol