August 2020:

[Tx2005]

Laura is making me very nervous.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

This will be a weekend roller coaster. I cannot wait for Fall and Srain's immortal words. "Stepping down"...

Actually where I am it "stepped down" this week... It's been in the upper 50's for lows and the mid/upper 60's for highs and rainy in the Smokey Mountains.

I will say that the RECON data has likely helped the models and that will continue. The first G-IV high altitude synoptic mission for Laura is about to fly. Another is scheduled for future Marco along with a lot of AF C-130 missions. Also various NWS WFO's began every 6 hour balloon launches this afternoon. All that data will come in handy and provide a clearer picture of what can be expected.

Coming to Knoxville in November for the A&M game and renting a cabin near Sugar Mountain the week after. You live in an awesome area!

[unome]

a much appreciated afternoon update from Space City Weather

https://spacecityweather.com/friday-aft ... st-a-mess/

The overall probability of the Houston region, including Galveston, seeing significant, sustained effects from one or both of these storms remains fairly low. What do I mean by this? At present, the odds of Galveston seeing hurricane force winds in the next week is under 10 percent. The odds of the Houston region seeing 5 inches or more of rainfall, total, is probably less than 10 percent too. We’re not saying Houston will not experience severe weather in the next week. What we’re saying is that given the spread of possibilities, the overall chances are fairly low. It’s our job to let you know if that changes. And we will.

[srainhoutx]

This will be a weekend roller coaster. I cannot wait for Fall and Srain's immortal words. "Stepping down"...

Actually where I am it "stepped down" this week... It's been in the upper 50's for lows and the mid/upper 60's for highs and rainy in the Smokey Mountains.

I will say that the RECON data has likely helped the models and that will continue. The first G-IV high altitude synoptic mission for Laura is about to fly. Another is scheduled for future Marco along with a lot of AF C-130 missions. Also various NWS WFO's began every 6 hour balloon launches this afternoon. All that data will come in handy and provide a clearer picture of what can be expected.

Coming to Knoxville in November for the A&M game and renting a cabin near Sugar Mountain the week after. You live in an awesome area!

My view from the front porch.

[Kingwood36]

I never liked space city weather

[Kingwood36]

Actually where I am it "stepped down" this week... It's been in the upper 50's for lows and the mid/upper 60's for highs and rainy in the Smokey Mountains.

I will say that the RECON data has likely helped the models and that will continue. The first G-IV high altitude synoptic mission for Laura is about to fly. Another is scheduled for future Marco along with a lot of AF C-130 missions. Also various NWS WFO's began every 6 hour balloon launches this afternoon. All that data will come in handy and provide a clearer picture of what can be expected.

Coming to Knoxville in November for the A&M game and renting a cabin near Sugar Mountain the week after. You live in an awesome area!

My view from the front porch.

perfect camo to make some of that moonshine lol

[tireman4]

a much appreciated afternoon update from Space City Weather

https://spacecityweather.com/friday-aft ... st-a-mess/

The overall probability of the Houston region, including Galveston, seeing significant, sustained effects from one or both of these storms remains fairly low. What do I mean by this? At present, the odds of Galveston seeing hurricane force winds in the next week is under 10 percent. The odds of the Houston region seeing 5 inches or more of rainfall, total, is probably less than 10 percent too. We’re not saying Houston will not experience severe weather in the next week. What we’re saying is that given the spread of possibilities, the overall chances are fairly low. It’s our job to let you know if that changes. And we will.

Goodness. I am just an amateur, but this against everything Dr. Neil Frank ever preached or said. He would say tropical systems are very unpredictable. Until it is completely dissipated, anything can happen. Allison comes to mind

[unome]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1456.shtml

Code: Select all

000
FONT14 KNHC 211456
PWSAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142020               
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)

BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   6(19)   1(20)

JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)

GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  17(35)   3(38)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   1(12)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)

MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   5(16)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)

LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   8(21)
LAFAYETTE LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   7(20)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  29(43)   6(49)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   4(20)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)

SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)

FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  11(22)
FORT POLK LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  11(27)
LAKE CHARLES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
LAKE CHARLES   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  23(27)  10(37)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)
CAMERON LA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  15(26)
JASPER TX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  14(28)
KOUNTZE TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
KOUNTZE TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  13(30)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)  10(36)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  13(28)
HOUSTON TX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
HOUSTON TX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  11(27)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  23(28)   7(35)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  12(30)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
HIGH ISLAND TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   8(27)
MATAGORDA TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
MATAGORDA TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   7(22)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

ROCKPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)
ROCKPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
ROCKPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   4(21)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

MCALLEN TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

HARLINGEN TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)

MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   8( 8)  50(58)  10(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)  18(18)   9(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)

GUANAJA        34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   3( 3)  12(15)   5(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)

HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

KEESLER AB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

[Kingwood36]

Good grief look at that

[AtascocitaWX]

a much appreciated afternoon update from Space City Weather

https://spacecityweather.com/friday-aft ... st-a-mess/

The overall probability of the Houston region, including Galveston, seeing significant, sustained effects from one or both of these storms remains fairly low. What do I mean by this? At present, the odds of Galveston seeing hurricane force winds in the next week is under 10 percent. The odds of the Houston region seeing 5 inches or more of rainfall, total, is probably less than 10 percent too. We’re not saying Houston will not experience severe weather in the next week. What we’re saying is that given the spread of possibilities, the overall chances are fairly low. It’s our job to let you know if that changes. And we will.

Hmm... Thats a pretty bold statement under ten percent with the way storms have been behaving lately.

[snowman65]

Good grief look at that

That's the worlds largest pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey game...

[jasons2k]

Re: Space City: I think that's a pretty bold statement considering the center of the cone for TD#14 is practically on top of us.

[Scott747]

Pretty good shift down towards Sargent and likely a weaker system.

[Kingwood36]

Pretty good shift down towards Sargent and likely a weaker system.

That's good we may get some rain out of it

[tireman4]

Re: Space City: I think that's a pretty bold statement considering the center of the cone for TD#14 is practically on top of us.

And gee if he is proven right, he needs to go to Vegas...lol

[don]

Track shifted more west..

[Scott747]

Large shift with Laura. Not enough to put our area in the cone but would have been an extreme shift from one cycle to another which the NHC tries not to do.

[Tx2005]

I wonder if SE Texas ends up in the cone for Laura in the next 24 hours.

[djmike]

A little worrisome that 4pm track update on Laura is taking much longer than TD14 did. May be debating to pull the trigger on a much further west track. We shall see shortly...

[cperk]

Large shift with Laura. Not enough to put our area in the cone but would have been an extreme shift from one cycle to another which the NHC tries not to do.

Yeah but one more of those and we will be.