July 2020

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 241000
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
500 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

.AVIATION...

As of 4 AM CDT, the central of Tropical Storm Hanna was located
near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 92.4 West and is moving
toward the west-northwest through tonight. Hanna`s center is
forecast to move into the Texas Coastal Bend on Saturday. As the
storm continues to approach the Texas Coast, rainbands generated
by Hanna will move across Southeast Texas and will result in
periods of SHRA/TSRA across portions of the CWA throughout the
TAF period.

This morning, ISO SH/TS moving across the coastal regions of the
CWA and the Gulf waters will affect GLS, LBX and possibly HOU from
time to time. Mainly VFR conditions expected, but there could be a
brief period of MVFR cigs developing in some sites early this
morning. Winds today will be turning E and increasing to 10-15 KTS
with some higher gusts. Winds over the southern portions of the
CWA will be a little higher in the afternoon. The SH/TS activity
will expand and intensify as the day progresses staring along the
coast and expanding into the northern portions of the CWA as
Hanna`s rainbands make their way across the CWA. Hanna still has a
chance to strengthen a little more before making landfall,
therefore expect a few modifications within the next several TAF
packages. 24

&&

.MARINE...

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Matagorda Bay and
the southern Gulf waters. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect
for Galveston Bay and the northern Gulf waters.

Winds and seas will be on the rise today as Tropical Storm Hanna
approaches the Texas Coast, resulting in dangerous marine
conditions across the bays and Gulf waters and hazardous
conditions along the beaches. Tides will also increase, which
may produce minor coastal flooding. Based on the current forecast
track, the strongest winds and highest seas should remain over
the Gulf waters adjacent to Matagorda Bay, within the Tropical
Storm Warning area. Southeast winds of 30 to 50 KTS with gusts up
to 60 KTS and seas of 8 to 14 can be expected from this evening
through late Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon. A
gradual decrease in winds and seas can be expected Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night. Marine conditions should be within
the Caution flag criteria Sunday. Light onshore winds will return
early next week, increasing near the end of the workweek. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Hanna continues to strengthen, expand and get more
organized. The current NHC forecast indicates that the system will
move WNW this morning then begin to turn more westerly tonight
aiming it toward the Coastal Bend.

Tropical Storm Watch and Warning remain in effect for portions of
Southeast Texas.

One rain band has already developed before midnight from around
Liberty to Galveston and has shifted a little further southwest
and this is a good example of the size of the circulation
associated with Hanna. Scattered showers were developing across
the Upper Texas Coastal waters early this morning.

So for today expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue to
develop augmented by daytime heating jumping inland between 10am
and noon then continuing to expand inland throughout the
afternoon. Some brief heavy downpours will be possible with the
afternoon storms. As Hanna tracks west tonight and gets well south
of Matagorda rain chances and the threat for heavy rainfall
increases for the areas mainly south of the I-10 corridor to
Galveston Bay. Areas in Brazoria/Matagorda/Wharton/Jackson will be
the most under the gun for heavy rainfall and training of showers
and thunderstorms. A Flash Flood Watch will probably be issued
this afternoon to blanket these regions and areas south through
the Corpus Christi area and probably further south and west.
Currently thinking that 3-5" amounts with isolated amounts of 8+"
will be possible in the southwestern counties of SETX. As Hanna
nears the coast (on the current forecast track crossing the coast
between Corpus Christi and Brownsville Saturday 9am to 6pm -
though this is not set in stone) the threat of heavy rainfall
increases in our southwestern counties with strong moisture
advection/low level speed convergence/very high PW air 2.4-2.8"
that should be aimed into our Brazoria/Matagorda/Jackson county
area. In addition these areas could have a brief window for quick
spinup thunderstorms and possibly waterspouts over the marine
areas and possibly into these same counties 3-9 am Saturday
morning. Hanna should continue to move west or even southwest
after landfall sucking up the very rich moisture air into S TX
but even in SETX we will still have scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms moving into SETX Saturday night through Sunday.
Much of the guidance continues to point to a second band/surge of
moisture moving out of the central Gulf toward the coast of LA/TX
Sunday so threat of locally heavy rain should continue on Sunday.
Confidence on Monday through Wednesday diminishes depending on the
track of the remnants of Hanna and how much deep tropical
moisture still remains over the Gulf as well as how far south the
upper trough dropping into the Ohio valley progresses.

Of note Tuesday and Wednesday temperatures should jump back to
seasonal or above normal temperatures and by Thursday and Friday
above normal temperatures are expected.

Strong onshore winds will also increase tide levels from around 1
foot above normal this morning to 1 to 3 feet for the Matagorda
Bay area and 1 to 2 feet for the San Luis Pass area northeastward
tonight/Saturday. This will lead to beach flooding and possibly
some impacts to the more coastal flood prone areas such as Highway
87, Blue Water Highway near Freeport and the southern coastal
areas surrounding Matagorda Bay. Tides should lower Sunday night
and Monday.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 77 91 76 87 / 30 40 70 20 70
Houston (IAH) 92 78 87 77 85 / 70 70 80 40 70
Galveston (GLS) 85 82 84 82 83 / 50 90 100 70 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands.

Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Wharton.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Coastal waters
from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...24

[Rip76]

Nothing indicates a major track change but Hannah is already at 27.1, 9 hrs ahead of the latest forecast plot. Further n it gets before making the turn the more impacts our area could potentially see.

Does appear it may be making the expected turn. Recon will confirm soon enough.

It does appear to be making the turn.

https://i.imgur.com/0sNXo2S.gif

[jasons2k]

It’s very lopsided to the South and East. Figures.

Can I go back in time to a week ago and pretend that three systems in a row were about to dump all over us?

[Scott747]

Nothing indicates a major track change but Hannah is already at 27.1, 9 hrs ahead of the latest forecast plot. Further n it gets before making the turn the more impacts our area could potentially see.

Does appear it may be making the expected turn. Recon will confirm soon enough.

It does appear to be making the turn.

https://i.imgur.com/0sNXo2S.gif

Yeah looks like it hit a 'wall' and further progression n could be over. System itself isn't fully stacked and may have allowed a bit of jump to the n giving an illusion of movement.

New fix soon from recon...

[don]

I noticed the 12z NAM, RGEM,and HRRR models takes Hanna further north into the Port Aransas area. And have a decent amount more moisture than previous runs in Southeast Texas. FWIW

[Waded]

We had this same song and dance with Cristobal. Another early season storm that looked like it could been coming towards SE Texas briefly before it went into LA and left us high and dry. Now Hannah is going towards southern Texas, and we will be lucky to get more than an inch or two from this. It seems like this story plays out every year.

[Cpv17]

We had this same song and dance with Cristobal. Another early season storm that looked like it could been coming towards SE Texas briefly before it went into LA and left us high and dry. Now Hannah is going towards southern Texas, and we will be lucky to get more than an inch or two from this. It seems like this story plays out every year.

While this storm may not have much of an impact on us, all signs are pointing towards an active season and we’re well on our way towards one. Africa is firing missiles at us and my prediction is at least one of em will hit us this season. The wave that just emerged off the coast of Africa has my attention. I’m more interested in that one than any other storm out there right now. That wave is a beast and many ensembles members are wanting to take it towards the Bahamas or towards the western Caribbean.

[mcheer23]

Did anyone see last nights EURO run....future Isaias bullets through the Caribbean and splits the Yucatan channel as a hurricane.

[tropiKal]

Where do you people live that you're complaining about being "high and dry," anyway? I've already received plenty of soaking 1'+ rains the past few days, as did many other locations south of I-10.

Even with this storm, we're still on the dirty side, so even if it's skewed, there will still be plenty of moisture to create truly soaking storms when one gets hit.

[TexasBreeze]

Looks pretty stormy to me towards the east and it is rolling this way.

[jasons2k]

Where do you people live that you're complaining about being "high and dry," anyway? I've already received plenty of soaking 1'+ rains the past few days, as did many other locations south of I-10.

Even with this storm, we're still on the dirty side, so even if it's skewed, there will still be plenty of moisture to create truly soaking storms when one gets hit.

I’m in southern Montgomery county, east of I-45. If you look at a storm total rainfall map from 90L last weekend/early this week, there is a donut over my house. Actually most locations north of I-10/I-69 did not get much at all, so it wasn’t just me. I just got frustrated because I was surrounded by rain on all sides. I saw an image of the rainfall map posted somewhere - can’t recall if it was on this thread or on Storm2k.

I had a total of .24” over the 5-day period of having 60-80% chances of rain. My entire July total is .25”

[txbear]

Man, board seems to have gotten a bit...lively and tense over the past 12 hours or so.

I think it’s fair that there is a bit of wishcasting for decent rains from Hannah based on the fact that no one wants another summer of 2011, and the recent ridge and oppressive heat plucked that nerve. I’ve been seeing signs of decent stress in the trees around my area due to said ridge.

Hopefully those showers firing off to the east are an omen that we still yet get a little benefit from Hannah. Going to be a struggle though it seems for those to the north and the Brazos Valley. Drought monitor really pointing out those areas and on into Central Texas really need some soakers.

[Rip76]

liquid Gold coming in from the East.

[Waded]

We had this same song and dance with Cristobal. Another early season storm that looked like it could been coming towards SE Texas briefly before it went into LA and left us high and dry. Now Hannah is going towards southern Texas, and we will be lucky to get more than an inch or two from this. It seems like this story plays out every year.

While this storm may not have much of an impact on us, all signs are pointing towards an active season and we’re well on our way towards one. Africa is firing missiles at us and my prediction is at least one of em will hit us this season. The wave that just emerged off the coast of Africa has my attention. I’m more interested in that one than any other storm out there right now. That wave is a beast and many ensembles members are wanting to take it towards the Bahamas or towards the western Caribbean.

Sure, but if and when the storm gets here it will be in August/September when SE Texas is really under the gun for cyclones. We just don’t get early season storms very often.

[Cpv17]

We had this same song and dance with Cristobal. Another early season storm that looked like it could been coming towards SE Texas briefly before it went into LA and left us high and dry. Now Hannah is going towards southern Texas, and we will be lucky to get more than an inch or two from this. It seems like this story plays out every year.

While this storm may not have much of an impact on us, all signs are pointing towards an active season and we’re well on our way towards one. Africa is firing missiles at us and my prediction is at least one of em will hit us this season. The wave that just emerged off the coast of Africa has my attention. I’m more interested in that one than any other storm out there right now. That wave is a beast and many ensembles members are wanting to take it towards the Bahamas or towards the western Caribbean.

Sure, but if and when the storm gets here it will be in August/September when SE Texas is really under the gun for cyclones. We just don’t get early season storms very often.

If we do, it’s mainly in June. I don’t ever recall us getting hit in July.

[davidiowx]

Yep, August and September are the hot months for us, which makes sense as it is in the heart of the season.

[unome]

purely in jest, to lighten the mood https://youtu.be/RpcXv_ra65M

I personally am excited about 3 days of high temps forecast to not reach 90, at the end of July in the greater Houston area - I'll take it, with or without several inches of rain

hoping for the best for our neighbors in south TX - stay safe y'all, virtual hugs & well wishes

[Cpv17]

Yep, August and September are the hot months for us, which makes sense as it is in the heart of the season.

I wonder when the last time a July storm has hit SETX? Just curious!

[Waded]

Where do you people live that you're complaining about being "high and dry," anyway? I've already received plenty of soaking 1'+ rains the past few days, as did many other locations south of I-10.

Even with this storm, we're still on the dirty side, so even if it's skewed, there will still be plenty of moisture to create truly soaking storms when one gets hit.

I live in the Bay Area and have gotten plenty of rain recently. I also don’t have a lawn to worry about. Still, as a bit of an adrenaline junkie I’m a bit disappointed I’m not getting the thrill of a landfalling storm.

[djmike]

Have gotten several rounds of liquid gold in Beaumont. Looks like today/tomorrow we will get a lot more.