MAY 2020

[TXWeatherMan]

ICON spins it up pretty good this run.

[Rip76]

Yep

[Cromagnum]

What happened to hot and dry that was forecast. Looks like a washout coming for Sunday

[jasons2k]

I can’t keep up. When I went to bed, my rain chances for today were 40%. When I woke-up, they had been lowered down to 20%. Lots of flip-flopping with the forecast this week.

[tireman4]

This will be everchanging all week

[Cromagnum]

S2K is saying upper Texas Coast or SW LA for this system.

[Cpv17]

S2K is saying upper Texas Coast or SW LA for this system.

Yeah if that would be the case then SETX would be left and high and dry and LA would get hammered. Still a long ways out though.

[davidiowx]

S2K is saying upper Texas Coast or SW LA for this system.

Wayyyyyy to far out to even have a long shot guess and any landfall location. This could just as well die out in Mexico. Nothing is certain but if/when this emerges into the BoC, we definitely need to be paying attention.

[cperk]

The NHC has increased the chance of development to 40 - 60%.

[Cpv17]

The NHC has increased the chance of development to 40 - 60%.

I still see 40-50%??

[cperk]

Thanks Cp my bad.

[Cpv17]

Substantial east shift in the models today. Looking like Texas could be in the clear on this one. Well at least as of now. Models are changing all the time trying to figure this system out.

[don]

Yes 12z EURO shifted far to the east but the trough lifts out and a ridge quickly builds on top of the storm and pushes it towards the Texas coast, the bottom line is that were talking about 150+ hours out and we don't have a definite center of circulation yet. So don't be surprised if models flip flop more over next few days these gyre setups are really hard to forecast because you tend to have multiple vorticities competing with each other. Looks like this may be one of those systems with erratic movement due to complex steering currents. I think it is going to be a few more days before we can be sure where this goes.

[jasons2k]

Yes 12z EURO shifted far to the east but the trough lifts out and a ridge quickly builds on top of the storm and pushes it towards the Texas coast, the bottom line is that,were talking about 150+ hours out and we don't have a definite center of circulation yet. So don't be surprised if models flip flop more over next few days these gyre setups are really hard to forecast because you tend to have multiple vorticities competing with each other. Looks like this may be one of those systems with erratic movement due to complex steering currents. I think it is going to be a few more days before we can be sure where this goes.

Well said and I would second that. Also, keep in mind, that just like here, on Storm2K we have a mix of both amateurs and professionals. We do not issue forecasts. As always, follow official the guidance of the NHC.

[Cpv17]

Yes 12z EURO shifted far to the east but the trough lifts out and a ridge quickly builds on top of the storm and pushes it towards the Texas coast, the bottom line is that were talking about 150+ hours out and we don't have a definite center of circulation yet. So don't be surprised if models flip flop more over next few days these gyre setups are really hard to forecast because you tend to have multiple vorticities competing with each other. Looks like this may be one of those systems with erratic movement due to complex steering currents. I think it is going to be a few more days before we can be sure where this goes.

Dude that’s crazy. I wrote that at hour 168 on the Euro thinking there was no way it would bend back west like that. I thought that was headed towards Mississippi/Alabama. Guess I spoke too soon.

[cperk]

Substantial east shift in the models today. Looking like Texas could be in the clear on this one. Well at least as of now. Models are changing all the time trying to figure this system out.

Texas is not in the clear.

[Cpv17]

Substantial east shift in the models today. Looking like Texas could be in the clear on this one. Well at least as of now. Models are changing all the time trying to figure this system out.

Texas is not in the clear.

Yeah it’s early. We’ll know more in a few days. I was just speaking as of now from what the models were showing before I saw the hard left turn on the Euro. My bad!!

[snowman65]

already has a name. we'll never survive this season....

[srainhoutx]

It might be time to move discussions for the potential Atlantic Basin tropical disturbance to the June thread since we will be done with May tonight?

[jasons2k]

I was hoping for a little shower from that band that started to from along US 59 up towards Porter, but as quickly as it started to go-up, it started falling apart,