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One more question; above someone was talking about the BAM series of models, and how they pegged a 2nd Mexico landfall early on? Its my basic understanding that the BAM's are good for forecasting development, but not so good once a storm has actually formed? And looking at the latest BAM suite, two of them have now shifted to the upper middle Texas coast. I've always paid more attention to the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and the UKMET, as they are large global models. Is my thinking sound? Lots of good guys with excellent understanding of Hurricanes on this board.

Paul wrote:oh I am not denying that a MX landfall is the most logical choice right now. What I am worried about is I have been tootting my EURO horn for 3 days and dont want a pie in my face....

Don't lose faith yet in King Euro, bro! I think it will prove out fine like usual.

Besides, the venerable Wxman57 has opined on S2K and is not fazed by this latest GFS-induced "going north" craze. Until he suggests there might be something to it, no need to lose confidence.

It's the NAM but

redfish1 wrote:23.6N 93.7W
25.0N 94.1W
thats a pretty big jump to the north

What would indicate that is a trend, redfish1? Oh, wait, I think that I know. Correct me if I am wrong, if Tropical Storm Alex continues in that direction for a good while, yes?

Heh, heh ... I see Brownsville is back in NHC's 5-day cone. I guess the model suite which showed the north trend has them hedging their bits a little bit. Track seems to have been adjusted a bit further north but still shows a mid-Mexican coast 2nd landfall.

Portastorm wrote:Heh, heh ... I see Brownsville is back in NHC's 5-day cone. I guess the model suite which showed the north trend has them hedging their bits a little bit. Track seems to have been adjusted a bit further north but still shows a mid-Mexican coast 2nd landfall.

Interesting snippet from the 10 pm forecast discussion on Alex:

HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.
GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS.

It looks like the storm could be taking a NW movement. Will be interesting to watch to see if this trend continues through the night. If so then the GFDL could be on to something...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad


Also:


7PM CDST 17.4N/88.1W

9PM CDST 17.7N/88.4W

Portastorm wrote:Interesting snippet from the 10 pm forecast discussion on Alex:

HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.
GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS.

The 'new' GFS spit out three different storms on a few runs yesterday. Haven't really paid much attention to the current model but there are some definite odd runs occurring.

Scott, I have seen these "spurious lows" in the GFS runs also. The last run has it right around NO....other than feedback issues, I dont know what to think of it....Really have never heard the NWS mention spurious lows before...

GFS already pretty far north:

0z GFS is very similar to the 18z run. It is probably about to show another Texas landfall...

Does it look like Tropical Storm Alex is moving Northwest to any of you. I watched it in motion on the Rainbow Infrared Satellite Image and it looked like it was to me.

Tyler, yes it is north and sloww.....what gives....can it really be this bad?

I thought it had come around but now....I am having second doubts....


the 0z run and 12z should have new data to ingest...

Mr. T wrote:0z GFS is very similar to the 18z run. It is probably about to show another Texas landfall...

The new and improved version is trending that way also.

Yup. The OP GFS is about to have another Texas landfall.

And the "new" GFS is as well...

Paul wrote:

the 0z run and 12z should have new data to ingest...

It's probably on to something...

Hell if I know...

Paul wrote:Tyler, yes it is north and sloww.....what gives....can it really be this bad?

If tonight's 0z Euro switches to Texas, my goodness, lol

GFS sends it straight west afterwords and sits it there for days....

Mr. T wrote:Yup. The OP GFS is about to have another Texas landfall.

And the "new" GFS is as well...

going to say this again....at one point we had every model latched on to the a MX landfall....NOW we get this spread again that I have never seen before in my years of watching....

bugging the h... out of me....