Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB
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Bluefalcon
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One more question; above someone was talking about the BAM series of models, and how they pegged a 2nd Mexico landfall early on? Its my basic understanding that the BAM's are good for forecasting development, but not so good once a storm has actually formed? And looking at the latest BAM suite, two of them have now shifted to the upper middle Texas coast. I've always paid more attention to the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and the UKMET, as they are large global models. Is my thinking sound? Lots of good guys with excellent understanding of Hurricanes on this board.
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
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Portastorm
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Don't lose faith yet in King Euro, bro!Paul wrote:oh I am not denying that a MX landfall is the most logical choice right now. What I am worried about is I have been tootting my EURO horn for 3 days and dont want a pie in my face....
I think it will prove out fine like usual.Besides, the venerable Wxman57 has opined on S2K and is not fazed by this latest GFS-induced "going north" craze. Until he suggests there might be something to it, no need to lose confidence.
Last edited by Portastorm on Sat Jun 26, 2010 9:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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sleetstorm
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What would indicate that is a trend, redfish1? Oh, wait, I think that I know. Correct me if I am wrong, if Tropical Storm Alex continues in that direction for a good while, yes?redfish1 wrote:23.6N 93.7W
25.0N 94.1W
thats a pretty big jump to the north
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Portastorm
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Heh, heh ... I see Brownsville is back in NHC's 5-day cone. I guess the model suite which showed the north trend has them hedging their bits a little bit. Track seems to have been adjusted a bit further north but still shows a mid-Mexican coast 2nd landfall.
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Andrew
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Portastorm wrote:Heh, heh ... I see Brownsville is back in NHC's 5-day cone. I guess the model suite which showed the north trend has them hedging their bits a little bit. Track seems to have been adjusted a bit further north but still shows a mid-Mexican coast 2nd landfall.
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Portastorm
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Interesting snippet from the 10 pm forecast discussion on Alex:
HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.
GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.
GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS.
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Andrew
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It looks like the storm could be taking a NW movement. Will be interesting to watch to see if this trend continues through the night. If so then the GFDL could be on to something...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
Also:
7PM CDST 17.4N/88.1W
9PM CDST 17.7N/88.4W
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
Also:
7PM CDST 17.4N/88.1W
9PM CDST 17.7N/88.4W
Last edited by Andrew on Sat Jun 26, 2010 10:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The 'new' GFS spit out three different storms on a few runs yesterday. Haven't really paid much attention to the current model but there are some definite odd runs occurring.Portastorm wrote:Interesting snippet from the 10 pm forecast discussion on Alex:
HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.
GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS.
Scott, I have seen these "spurious lows" in the GFS runs also. The last run has it right around NO....other than feedback issues, I dont know what to think of it....Really have never heard the NWS mention spurious lows before... 
0z GFS is very similar to the 18z run. It is probably about to show another Texas landfall...
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sleetstorm
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Does it look like Tropical Storm Alex is moving Northwest to any of you. I watched it in motion on the Rainbow Infrared Satellite Image and it looked like it was to me.
Tyler, yes it is north and sloww.....what gives....can it really be this bad?
I thought it had come around but now....I am having second doubts....
the 0z run and 12z should have new data to ingest...
I thought it had come around but now....I am having second doubts....
the 0z run and 12z should have new data to ingest...
The new and improved version is trending that way also.Mr. T wrote:0z GFS is very similar to the 18z run. It is probably about to show another Texas landfall...
Yup. The OP GFS is about to have another Texas landfall.
And the "new" GFS is as well...
And the "new" GFS is as well...
It's probably on to something...Paul wrote:
the 0z run and 12z should have new data to ingest...
Hell if I know...
If tonight's 0z Euro switches to Texas, my goodness, lolPaul wrote:Tyler, yes it is north and sloww.....what gives....can it really be this bad?
Mr. T wrote:Yup. The OP GFS is about to have another Texas landfall.
And the "new" GFS is as well...
going to say this again....at one point we had every model latched on to the a MX landfall....NOW we get this spread again that I have never seen before in my years of watching....
bugging the h... out of me....
