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Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 3:36 pm
by srainhoutx
Corpus is a bit more interesting...
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY AS THE WEAKER COLD FRONT
NOSES INTO THE REGION. COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
DYNAMICS FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TEXAS BIG BEND/HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO LEAD TO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS
TO THE EAST. BUT THERE MAY BE SOME QUESTION TOWARD PRECIP TYPE AS
THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF...SHOWING 925MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF A VCT-HBV LINE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF/CAN SHOW THE 546 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
LINE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA COMPARED TO GFS NEAR THE
COAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT WITH AIRMASS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO WARM FOR FROZEN PRECIP BUT DEFINITELY MERITS
WATCHING IN LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS
FOR LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE COASTAL BEND WEDNESDAY WITH
A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 3:40 pm
by TexasMetBlake
18z gfs is running. I wait patiently but with bated breath..
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 3:41 pm
by Mr. T
If it's being done by forecaster #41, then it'll just be three sentences anyway.
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 3:50 pm
by TexasMetBlake
Houston:
THE LATEST GFS HAS MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY CONCERNING A CHC OF SNOW
ON TUE AND INTO TUE NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ONLY MADE A COUPLE OF ADJUSTMENTS CONCERNING THIS EVENT. ADDED
A MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE EXTREME NW ON TUE MORNING AS 1000/500
MB THICKNESSES WILL BE NEAR 540 BY MID MORNING AND THE GFS INDICATES
A BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO BUMPED POPS UP A LITTLE FOR TUE. WE MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAKE IT DOWN TO HWY 59 AS THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF
TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT LATE ON TUE NIGHT. STAY TUNED IT IS
STILL EARLY FOR FIGURING ALL OF THIS OUT.
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 3:51 pm
by Mr. T
The latest GFS has maintained consistency concerning a chance of snow
on Tuesday and into Tuesday night across mainly the northern half of the
area. Only made a couple of adjustments concerning this event. Added
a mention of a rain/snow mix to the extreme northwest on Tuesday morning as 1000/500
mb thicknesses will be near 540 by middle morning and the GFS indicates
a band of precipitation will be moving in from the west as early as the
morning hours. Also bumped probability of precipitation up a little for Tuesday. We may see a
rain/snow mix make it down to Highway 59 as the precipitation tapers off
toward the end of the event late on Tuesday night. Stay tuned it is
still early for figuring all of this out.
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 3:57 pm
by TexasMetBlake
Interesting 18z run for sure.
18z seems to be faster with the cold, slower with the disturbance and a bit further south. The temps look about the same for us. This is definitely a good run for us. Runs still coming in. Will discuss further in a few.
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 3:59 pm
by brazoria_county22
Candy Cane wrote:Interesting 18z run for sure.
18z seems to be faster with the cold, slower with the disturbance and a bit further south. The temps look about the same for us. This is definitely a good run for us. Runs still coming in. Will discuss further in a few.
that gose for the coast to or just hou and points north?
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 4:03 pm
by TexasMetBlake
The 18z looks to have trended towards the Euro with less QPF. It does seem to be further south with the precip, but temps finally cool below freezing as the precip is ending. Now we wait for the 0z. LOL
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 4:04 pm
by txsnowmaker
Srain, will the 0z runs tonight be the first to incorporate the latest data from the final G-IV recon mission this afternoon?
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 4:06 pm
by TexasMetBlake
Also take note how Dallas has much less QPF according to this run. They may escape with next to nothing. We'll see...
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 4:08 pm
by srainhoutx
txsnowmaker wrote:Srain, will the 0z runs tonight be the first to incorporate the latest data from the final G-IV recon mission this afternoon?
I'll check on that later this evening. The notice usually comes out just prior to the run from the NCEP. I do have plans this evening, but I'll try to take a look. The G-IV missions are rather long as they start in Japan and end the drops NE of Hawaii.
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 4:09 pm
by Mr. T
Candy Cane wrote:Also take note how Dallas has much less QPF according to this run. They may escape with next to nothing. We'll see...
Wow! It gives areas like Dallas and Shreveport nearly nothing, while the 12z GFS gave those locations several inches. Definitely looks more like the "drier" Euro. The best area to be on this run would actually be from about Waco southward into the northern half of SE TX.
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 4:10 pm
by txsnowmaker
srainhoutx wrote:txsnowmaker wrote:Srain, will the 0z runs tonight be the first to incorporate the latest data from the final G-IV recon mission this afternoon?
I'll check on that later this evening. The notice usually comes out just prior to the run from the NCEP. I do have plans this evening, but I'll try to take a look. The G-IV missions are rather long as they start in Japan and end the drops NE of Hawaii.
Thanks as always.
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 4:11 pm
by srainhoutx
Also notice where the H5 ends up at hour 96. Is that a 0 degree isotherm I see S of Galveston. Hmmm...
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 4:18 pm
by srainhoutx
Mr. T wrote:BTW, thank you very much for the welcomed model analysis, wxman57. I'm sure we all appreciate the graphs and explanations you have been posting this morning.
Lets hope we all get to see some white stuff in the air tuesday... If we could just see some snow falling again this winter, I will be happy. Any accumulation will be a bonus!
I'll bump this up for wxman57 to see. I agree Tyler. Thanks for the charts wxman57!
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 5:51 pm
by Ptarmigan
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 7:03 pm
by C2G
More like the wee hours of Wednesday morning.
Tuesday Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 7:28 pm
by sleetstorm
Who knows, southeast Texas may just end up getting much more snow than what we received on the fourth of December of last year which I pray that we do as well as for other cities that beleaguer Baytown, Houston, and southeast Texas.
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 8:49 pm
by srainhoutx
00Z's are running. Maybe some more 'hints' from the night crew...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
The NAM looks a bit S this run.
Re: February Winter Weather Discussion. Wintry Precip Possible?
Posted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 8:52 pm
by wxman57
I can wait until morning. Going to bed. It was darn cold on that bike ride today. Not one ray of sunshine.
One thing that bothers me about the snow potential here is that the airmass overhead on Tuesday morning may be a bit warmer than in December. For now, I expect to see a period of light snow mixed with rain and sleet as the precip ends Tuesday evening. Surface temps may be too warm for it to stick around.