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Ptarmigan
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days 0.23
Average for last 90 days -6.51
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 18.06

The SOI has risen. This complicates La Nina with a warm PDO.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is -0.17

ESPI has risen.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3, 3.4, and 4 have warmed. This shows how complex El Nino or La Nina forecast is.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days 2.58
Average for last 90 days -6.36
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 10.54

SOI has dropped as temperatures have increased.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is -0.39

ESPI has dropped.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Across the board drop in all regions.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days 2.29
Average for last 90 days -5.61
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 13.14

SOI has risen as temperatures have dropped.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is -1.00

ESPI has dropped.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 have warmed. Region 3.4 is the same, while Region 4 has cooled.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days 3.82
Average for last 90 days -4.00
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -0.91

SOI has dropped as it tends to fluctuate.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is -0.90

ESPI went up slightly due to slight warming. All this complicates La Nina forecasting.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 are unchanged.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days 3.55
Average for last 90 days -2.58
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 12.99

SOI has risen.

ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI)
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

Last 30 Days is --0.95

ESPI dropped from last week. All this complicates La Nina forecasting.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 0.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2,3, and 3.4 cooled. Region 4 remains the same.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 are still the same.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 0.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3, and 4 cooled. Region 3.4 warmed slightly.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Weeks' ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC

Region 1+2 and 3 warmed. Region 3.4 is the same. Region 4 has cooled.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 0.1ºC

All regions cooled.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC

All regions warmed. La Nina looks less likely. At best, a weak La Nina.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC

All regions cooled, except for Region 3.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.3ºC

Region 1+2 and 3 warmed. Region 3.4 cooled. No change for Region 4.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.3ºC

No change from last week.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

La Nina is struggling.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC

Region 1+2 and 4 cooled, while Region 3 and 3.4 warmed

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.6ºC

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 cooled. Region 3 is unchanged.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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