Long range model discussion

[Ptarmigan]

Need to watch the 14-16th timeframe next week, ensemble guidance is getting pretty interesting across the state

I have seen forecast models suggesting storms next week.

[Stratton20]

Looks like the EPS shows the PNA staying pretty well positive even at and past christmas, not what you want to see, not just for cold but for rain chances

[Thundersleet]

Looks like the EPS shows the PNA staying pretty well positive even at and past christmas, not what you want to see, not just for cold but for rain chances

Dat gum it, dang it!

[Cpv17]

I think next winter could be a doozy. I’m on the fence about this winter. Kinda think it could go either way as of right now. Honestly, just give me above normal rain and near average temps and I’ll gladly take it.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I think next winter could be a doozy. I’m on the fence about this winter. Kinda think it could go either way as of right now. Honestly, just give me above normal rain and near average temps and I’ll gladly take it.

I said this last winter but I believe our seasons have adjusted back a month.

Our Fall is OND. Our Winter is JFM.

March has been cooler than December a handful of years the past decade, and cooler relative to average much more.

[Cpv17]

I think next winter could be a doozy. I’m on the fence about this winter. Kinda think it could go either way as of right now. Honestly, just give me above normal rain and near average temps and I’ll gladly take it.

I said this last winter but I believe our seasons have adjusted back a month.

Our Fall is OND. Our Winter is JFM.

March has been cooler than December a handful of years the past decade, and cooler relative to average much more.

I’d say winter is actually about where it should be, which is December 21st through March 19th.

[Stratton20]

From what ive been hearing, we may not see any real colder weather return until potentially the 2nd half of january, it is going to be very difficult to break this pacific jet + positive pna pattern anytime soon

[Stratton20]

NWS calling for a low of 39 tommorow morning here, now thats winter! Man if only we could keep the 30’s around forever! Thats my kind of weather!

[Stratton20]

Big pattern change after christmas as the pacific jet finally breaks down and the stubborn positive PNA begins to weaken, should start to see a more active SBJ with one system after the other, each one dragging down cooler air and precipitation, unanimous agreement between all ensemble guidance

[Cpv17]

Big pattern change after christmas as the pacific jet finally breaks down and the stubborn positive PNA begins to weaken, should start to see a more active SBJ with one system after the other, each one dragging down cooler air and precipitation, unanimous agreement between all ensemble guidance

Love the look of the west based -NAO. Hopefully we can get that and a decent -EPO at the same time & then it’s game on!

[snowman65]

currently -73 in Russia... much like last year at this time, hang on...

[Stratton20]

ill never understand how people over on that side of the world can live with that kind of cold, I love the cold but man -73 below is just beyond brutal 🥶🥶

[DoctorMu]

Dropping this here and ducking...

https://news.yahoo.com/el-nino-appears- ... 38738.html

Hey, there could be more polar vortex invasions into Texas...

[Stratton20]

Interesting! A potential collapse of el nino in january? Not sure ive ever heard of that happening that fast before, I guess we will see if that happens, could have major implications on our winter

[Cpv17]

Interesting! A potential collapse of el nino in january? Not sure ive ever heard of that happening that fast before, I guess we will see if that happens, could have major implications on our winter

It wouldn’t impact our winter this year due to the lag. Next winter has big potential along with this coming hurricane season.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I for one would rather not have another busy hurricane system, hopefully we can keep most systems away from the gulf

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 I for one would rather not have another busy hurricane system, hopefully we can keep most systems away from the gulf

The Caribbean and Gulf are expected to be hotspots this coming season.

[sambucol]

That’s not good.

[Harp1]

I’m not even THINKING about hurricane season yet.

[sambucol]

I wasn’t either, until I saw Cpv’s post!