May 2025
Radar is going bonkers!!
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
149
FXUS64 KHGX 280830
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
330 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Overnight, a cluster of strong storms developed over the western
and central regions of Texas and will gradually make their way
eastward and into the Southeast Texas region today. With these
storms, we will have vort maxes push through and a surge in low-
level moisture, with PWs increasing into the 1.8" to 2.2" range
near and around the storms. Moisture also increases along the mid-
levels. Forecast soundings reflect steep 700-500 mb lapse rates
(around 7.2 C/km), SFC Cape values of 3000-3500 J/kg over several
portions of SE TX, along with DCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg by
this afternoon. Thus, we will likely see these storms remain to
be strong at times as they move east southeast across our region
this afternoon. These storms may be capable of producing strong
downdrafts which could lead to damaging winds as well as large
hail. In addition, we could see periods of heavy rainfall and
could lead to ponding of water along the roadways and minor
flooding over low-lying and poor drainage areas.
These storms should be exiting the Piney Woods region sometime
this evening and most areas will see a lull in rain activity.
However, models show another cluster of storms (associated to
another mid-level disturbance) developing and moving across the
northern portions of TX during the day and could make it into the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region late this evening into tonight.
At this time, I`m not confident on how strong these storms could
be once they reach Southeast TX, given that we should become more
stable after the passage of the afternoon storms. However,
associated outflow boundaries and vort maxes may be enough to
trigger some isolated to possibly scattered showers and
thunderstorms throughout the night, in particular for areas along
and east of I-45.
An active weather pattern could continue on Thursday as a weak
boundary meanders over our region. During the morning hours, we
may have isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing. As diurnal heating increases in the afternoon and the
atmosphere becomes more unstable, storms are expected to
strengthen and increase in coverage, in particular near and south
of the boundary. These storms may once again be capable of
producing strong damaging winds, hail, and periods of heavy
rainfall. That being said, we will also need to keep an eye on
the mid-level ridge developing over the western Gulf on Thursday,
as it could limit some of our rain development. But confidence of
this is low at the moment. Rain chances ebb during the late
evening to early night hours.
SPC has continued a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms (level
1 of 5) for all of Southeast TX for both today and Thursday. WPC
has placed a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) for
all of Southeast TX for today and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for Thursday.
It is recommended to continue to monitor the updated forecasts,
keep an eye on the radar, and be ready to act quickly in case
severe weather develops over your area. Have multiple ways of
receiving weather alerts and warnings.
Cotto - 24
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Guidance still shows a weak cold front stalling out over the coast
on Friday, with sparse rain chances inland as drier air fills in
aloft. The remnants of this boundary should lift northward as a warm
front throughout Saturday, with a few light isolated showers
possible, mainly in the vicinity of the coast. Sunday may see
another uptick in thunderstorms activity as a shortwave trough digs
through the Mid/Lower Mississippi River Valley. Depending on the
position of this system, we could see another complex of
thunderstorms push through the area from the north in this
northwesterly flow regime. Afterwards, rain chances decrease
further into next week as mid/upper level ridging builds in from the
west. Isolated rain chances return on Tuesday as the ridge axis
shifts east of the state while moisture and PVA increase. Temps
throughout the long term remain stable with highs in the 80s/lower
90s and morning lows in the 60s/upper 70s.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Light winds and VFR conditions continue overnight. Lower cloud decks
to 1500-2500 ft may develop later this morning, with MVFR CIGS
possible at times, especially further north near KCLL & KUTS. Rain
chances will also steadily increase heading into the afternoon as a
complex of thunderstorms moves into the area from the
west/southwest. Much of this thunderstorm activity should occur
during the afternoon with a few stronger storms, MVFR CIGs and low
visibility from heavier rains possible during this period. Calmer
conditions briefly settle in during the late afternoon/evening as
these storms push off to the west/northwest. MVFR CIGs start to fill
in across the region late tonight into the early morning hours of
Thursday.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Another round of storms will start to build in from the west this
morning, bringing locally elevated winds and seas at times. Rainfall
should see a slight lull later tonight, picking up once again on
Thursday as another complex of storms develops along a weak cold
front. Rain chances decrease late Thursday, though isolated activity
will be possible throughout Friday morning as the front stalls over
the Gulf of America. Expect a brief period of north to northeast
winds during this time frame, with onshore flow later returning
Saturday afternoon as the boundary lifts north as a warm front.
Isolated rain chances continue through Sunday, decreasing slightly
next week.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 88 69 83 / 30 40 20 10
Houston (IAH) 71 88 73 87 / 40 60 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 76 86 78 87 / 40 40 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto /24/
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 280830
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
330 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Overnight, a cluster of strong storms developed over the western
and central regions of Texas and will gradually make their way
eastward and into the Southeast Texas region today. With these
storms, we will have vort maxes push through and a surge in low-
level moisture, with PWs increasing into the 1.8" to 2.2" range
near and around the storms. Moisture also increases along the mid-
levels. Forecast soundings reflect steep 700-500 mb lapse rates
(around 7.2 C/km), SFC Cape values of 3000-3500 J/kg over several
portions of SE TX, along with DCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg by
this afternoon. Thus, we will likely see these storms remain to
be strong at times as they move east southeast across our region
this afternoon. These storms may be capable of producing strong
downdrafts which could lead to damaging winds as well as large
hail. In addition, we could see periods of heavy rainfall and
could lead to ponding of water along the roadways and minor
flooding over low-lying and poor drainage areas.
These storms should be exiting the Piney Woods region sometime
this evening and most areas will see a lull in rain activity.
However, models show another cluster of storms (associated to
another mid-level disturbance) developing and moving across the
northern portions of TX during the day and could make it into the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region late this evening into tonight.
At this time, I`m not confident on how strong these storms could
be once they reach Southeast TX, given that we should become more
stable after the passage of the afternoon storms. However,
associated outflow boundaries and vort maxes may be enough to
trigger some isolated to possibly scattered showers and
thunderstorms throughout the night, in particular for areas along
and east of I-45.
An active weather pattern could continue on Thursday as a weak
boundary meanders over our region. During the morning hours, we
may have isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing. As diurnal heating increases in the afternoon and the
atmosphere becomes more unstable, storms are expected to
strengthen and increase in coverage, in particular near and south
of the boundary. These storms may once again be capable of
producing strong damaging winds, hail, and periods of heavy
rainfall. That being said, we will also need to keep an eye on
the mid-level ridge developing over the western Gulf on Thursday,
as it could limit some of our rain development. But confidence of
this is low at the moment. Rain chances ebb during the late
evening to early night hours.
SPC has continued a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms (level
1 of 5) for all of Southeast TX for both today and Thursday. WPC
has placed a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) for
all of Southeast TX for today and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for Thursday.
It is recommended to continue to monitor the updated forecasts,
keep an eye on the radar, and be ready to act quickly in case
severe weather develops over your area. Have multiple ways of
receiving weather alerts and warnings.
Cotto - 24
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Guidance still shows a weak cold front stalling out over the coast
on Friday, with sparse rain chances inland as drier air fills in
aloft. The remnants of this boundary should lift northward as a warm
front throughout Saturday, with a few light isolated showers
possible, mainly in the vicinity of the coast. Sunday may see
another uptick in thunderstorms activity as a shortwave trough digs
through the Mid/Lower Mississippi River Valley. Depending on the
position of this system, we could see another complex of
thunderstorms push through the area from the north in this
northwesterly flow regime. Afterwards, rain chances decrease
further into next week as mid/upper level ridging builds in from the
west. Isolated rain chances return on Tuesday as the ridge axis
shifts east of the state while moisture and PVA increase. Temps
throughout the long term remain stable with highs in the 80s/lower
90s and morning lows in the 60s/upper 70s.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Light winds and VFR conditions continue overnight. Lower cloud decks
to 1500-2500 ft may develop later this morning, with MVFR CIGS
possible at times, especially further north near KCLL & KUTS. Rain
chances will also steadily increase heading into the afternoon as a
complex of thunderstorms moves into the area from the
west/southwest. Much of this thunderstorm activity should occur
during the afternoon with a few stronger storms, MVFR CIGs and low
visibility from heavier rains possible during this period. Calmer
conditions briefly settle in during the late afternoon/evening as
these storms push off to the west/northwest. MVFR CIGs start to fill
in across the region late tonight into the early morning hours of
Thursday.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Another round of storms will start to build in from the west this
morning, bringing locally elevated winds and seas at times. Rainfall
should see a slight lull later tonight, picking up once again on
Thursday as another complex of storms develops along a weak cold
front. Rain chances decrease late Thursday, though isolated activity
will be possible throughout Friday morning as the front stalls over
the Gulf of America. Expect a brief period of north to northeast
winds during this time frame, with onshore flow later returning
Saturday afternoon as the boundary lifts north as a warm front.
Isolated rain chances continue through Sunday, decreasing slightly
next week.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 88 69 83 / 30 40 20 10
Houston (IAH) 71 88 73 87 / 40 60 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 76 86 78 87 / 40 40 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto /24/
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
MARINE...03
The lightning was intense on my way to work this morning. Luckily I left just in time to work and beat out the rain.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Today will feature a somewhat tricky TAF set, as clusters of
showers and thunderstorms develop over SE TX throughout the day
today. Some of these storms will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds, frequent lightning, hail, low cigs, and reduced vis.
Llvl wind shear and turbulence are also a possibility with the
stronger storms.
Scattered to widespread showers and storms are currently moving
over and north of the Matagorda Bay region and are expected to
continue to progress north northeast during the next several
hours. A few storms are also quickly developing over our central
portions (in and around the Houston Metro area) and could affect
IAH/HOU sites within the next hour or so. Additionally, storms
moving east from Central TX are expected to move into our region
as well. Thus, expect PROB30s and TEMPOs for many of our sites
today as conditions deteriorate/improve. We may have a lull in
convective activity later this evening into early tonight.
However, models show another cluster of storms developing over N
TX and making into the Piney Woods region tonight and may keep
our rain chances up for area near and east of I-45.
Cotto - 24
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Today will feature a somewhat tricky TAF set, as clusters of
showers and thunderstorms develop over SE TX throughout the day
today. Some of these storms will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds, frequent lightning, hail, low cigs, and reduced vis.
Llvl wind shear and turbulence are also a possibility with the
stronger storms.
Scattered to widespread showers and storms are currently moving
over and north of the Matagorda Bay region and are expected to
continue to progress north northeast during the next several
hours. A few storms are also quickly developing over our central
portions (in and around the Houston Metro area) and could affect
IAH/HOU sites within the next hour or so. Additionally, storms
moving east from Central TX are expected to move into our region
as well. Thus, expect PROB30s and TEMPOs for many of our sites
today as conditions deteriorate/improve. We may have a lull in
convective activity later this evening into early tonight.
However, models show another cluster of storms developing over N
TX and making into the Piney Woods region tonight and may keep
our rain chances up for area near and east of I-45.
Cotto - 24
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
838 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
TXC039-157-167-201-281645-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0039.250528T1338Z-250528T1645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brazoria TX-Fort Bend TX-Galveston TX-Harris TX-
838 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT THIS MORNING...
* WHAT...Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive
rainfall is expected.
* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following
counties, Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston and Harris.
* WHEN...Until 1145 AM CDT.
* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is
imminent.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 838 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges
indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause
urban and small stream flooding. Between 1 and 2 inches of
rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
over the area. This additional rain will result in minor
flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pasadena, Pearland, northeastern Sugar Land, northern
Missouri City, northern Friendswood, Deer Park, Stafford,
South Houston, Bellaire, West University Place, Galena Park,
Jacinto City, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village,
Piney Point Village, Macgregor, Astrodome Area, Greater Third
Ward, University Place and Midtown Houston.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
&&
LAT...LON 2979 9559 2983 9556 2984 9550 2983 9544
2983 9542 2981 9520 2978 9516 2973 9513
2965 9513 2960 9514 2953 9518 2953 9529
2955 9539 2957 9545 2958 9550 2962 9558
2967 9561 2972 9562
$$
Batiste
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
838 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
TXC039-157-167-201-281645-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0039.250528T1338Z-250528T1645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brazoria TX-Fort Bend TX-Galveston TX-Harris TX-
838 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT THIS MORNING...
* WHAT...Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive
rainfall is expected.
* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas, including the following
counties, Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston and Harris.
* WHEN...Until 1145 AM CDT.
* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is
imminent.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 838 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges
indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause
urban and small stream flooding. Between 1 and 2 inches of
rain have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
over the area. This additional rain will result in minor
flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pasadena, Pearland, northeastern Sugar Land, northern
Missouri City, northern Friendswood, Deer Park, Stafford,
South Houston, Bellaire, West University Place, Galena Park,
Jacinto City, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village,
Piney Point Village, Macgregor, Astrodome Area, Greater Third
Ward, University Place and Midtown Houston.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
&&
LAT...LON 2979 9559 2983 9556 2984 9550 2983 9544
2983 9542 2981 9520 2978 9516 2973 9513
2965 9513 2960 9514 2953 9518 2953 9529
2955 9539 2957 9545 2958 9550 2962 9558
2967 9561 2972 9562
$$
Batiste
A good old-fashioned multicellular complex. Like the old days. You love to see it.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Special Marine Warning
GMZ335-355-281700-
/O.NEW.KHGX.MA.W.0050.250528T1628Z-250528T1700Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1128 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Special Marine Warning for...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Galveston Bay...
* Until noon CDT.
* At 1128 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near High Island
63, moving northeast at 30 knots.
HAZARD...Wind gusts to 40 knots and small hail.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and
suddenly higher waves.
* Locations impacted include...
East Galveston Bay, Smith Point, Rollover Pass, High Island 63,
eastern Galveston Bay, and southern Trinity Bay.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are
expected.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If caught on the
open water stay below deck if possible, keep away from ungrounded
metal objects.
&&
LAT...LON 2956 9473 2955 9473 2959 9457 2956 9452
2957 9445 2954 9446 2956 9437 2955 9439
2929 9429 2919 9459 2951 9482 2963 9469
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 239DEG 29KT 2941 9445
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...40KTS
$$
Adams
GMZ335-355-281700-
/O.NEW.KHGX.MA.W.0050.250528T1628Z-250528T1700Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1128 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Special Marine Warning for...
Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...
Galveston Bay...
* Until noon CDT.
* At 1128 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near High Island
63, moving northeast at 30 knots.
HAZARD...Wind gusts to 40 knots and small hail.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and
suddenly higher waves.
* Locations impacted include...
East Galveston Bay, Smith Point, Rollover Pass, High Island 63,
eastern Galveston Bay, and southern Trinity Bay.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are
expected.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If caught on the
open water stay below deck if possible, keep away from ungrounded
metal objects.
&&
LAT...LON 2956 9473 2955 9473 2959 9457 2956 9452
2957 9445 2954 9446 2956 9437 2955 9439
2929 9429 2919 9459 2951 9482 2963 9469
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 239DEG 29KT 2941 9445
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...40KTS
$$
Adams
Must’ve gotten 2”+ in League City. We needed today so badly. Thank GOD.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Guidance still shows a weak cold front stalling out over the coast
on Friday, with sparse rain chances inland as drier air fills in
aloft. The remnants of this boundary should lift northward as a warm
front throughout Saturday, with a few light isolated showers
possible, mainly in the vicinity of the coast. Sunday may see
another uptick in thunderstorms activity as a shortwave trough digs
through the Mid/Lower Mississippi River Valley. Depending on the
position of this system, we could see another complex of
thunderstorms push through the area from the north in this
northwesterly flow regime. Afterwards, rain chances decrease
further into next week as mid/upper level ridging builds in from the
west. Isolated rain chances return on Tuesday as the ridge axis
shifts east of the state while moisture and PVA increase. Temps
throughout the long term remain stable with highs in the 80s/lower
90s and morning lows in the 60s/upper 70s.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Showers and scattered embedded thunderstorms continue to push off
to the east, with some additional development pushing north of CLL
and UTS. Conditions are expected to improve through the afternoon.
Northern terminals may see some light patchy fog late tonight and
overnight into early tomorrow morning. There is also a slight
chance for some isolated showers/thunderstorms to move into the
CLL area from the northwest overnight into tomorrow morning. MVFR
ceilings are expected area-wide by sunrise tomorrow, with slow,
gradual improvement through the morning hours into the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
A daily risk of showers and thunderstorms remains in the forecast
through early next week. However, the rain chances are expected to
decline as we head into the weekend. That being said, locally
heavier and stronger thunderstorms capable of strong gusty winds
and locally high seas remain a concern through the end of the
week. Non-thunderstorm related winds are expected to average light
to moderate and out of the south and southeast through Friday. A
period of east to northeast winds is expected on Saturday, before
winds resume to a southeasterly direction by early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 88 69 83 / 30 40 20 10
Houston (IAH) 71 88 73 87 / 30 60 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 76 86 78 87 / 40 40 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...McNeel
MARINE...Self
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Guidance still shows a weak cold front stalling out over the coast
on Friday, with sparse rain chances inland as drier air fills in
aloft. The remnants of this boundary should lift northward as a warm
front throughout Saturday, with a few light isolated showers
possible, mainly in the vicinity of the coast. Sunday may see
another uptick in thunderstorms activity as a shortwave trough digs
through the Mid/Lower Mississippi River Valley. Depending on the
position of this system, we could see another complex of
thunderstorms push through the area from the north in this
northwesterly flow regime. Afterwards, rain chances decrease
further into next week as mid/upper level ridging builds in from the
west. Isolated rain chances return on Tuesday as the ridge axis
shifts east of the state while moisture and PVA increase. Temps
throughout the long term remain stable with highs in the 80s/lower
90s and morning lows in the 60s/upper 70s.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Showers and scattered embedded thunderstorms continue to push off
to the east, with some additional development pushing north of CLL
and UTS. Conditions are expected to improve through the afternoon.
Northern terminals may see some light patchy fog late tonight and
overnight into early tomorrow morning. There is also a slight
chance for some isolated showers/thunderstorms to move into the
CLL area from the northwest overnight into tomorrow morning. MVFR
ceilings are expected area-wide by sunrise tomorrow, with slow,
gradual improvement through the morning hours into the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
A daily risk of showers and thunderstorms remains in the forecast
through early next week. However, the rain chances are expected to
decline as we head into the weekend. That being said, locally
heavier and stronger thunderstorms capable of strong gusty winds
and locally high seas remain a concern through the end of the
week. Non-thunderstorm related winds are expected to average light
to moderate and out of the south and southeast through Friday. A
period of east to northeast winds is expected on Saturday, before
winds resume to a southeasterly direction by early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 88 69 83 / 30 40 20 10
Houston (IAH) 71 88 73 87 / 30 60 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 76 86 78 87 / 40 40 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...McNeel
MARINE...Self
-
captainbarbossa19
- Pro Met
- Posts: 449
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
- Contact:
Thank you so much! My account got accidentally locked out but all is well now!DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon May 19, 2025 12:53 pmCongratulations and could not be happier for you.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Sat May 17, 2025 8:20 pm Hi everyone! It has been a while, but I am pleased to announce that I have officially completed my education at Mississippi State and have earned my Bachelor of Science in Professional Meteorology! I am so excited to see where my journey heads next!
Austin got rocked yesterday evening. So glad it missed me to the south. Insane hailstorm and downburst related damage.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.MARINE...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Scattered showers are developing over the Gulf waters, and this
should largely be expected to continue through the night and
through much of the day Thursday. Though thunderstorms are
unlikely, a brief storm or two embedded amongst the showers is
possible. In or near any storms that may occur, elevated winds
and building seas can be expected. Onshore flow should prevail
until the arrival of the next cold front on Friday. A period of
east to northeast winds is expected in the front`s wake on
Saturday.
At the shore, the persistent onshore flow ahead of the next
(eventual) front will keep water levels high Thursday along with
a moderate risk of rip currents. At high tide for the next cycle
or two, tidal levels are expected around 3 feet above MLLW. Gave
strong consideration to a rip current or beach hazards statement,
but given that conditions are improved over the last several days
back to the weekend, will opt against a statement for now.
However, tides/rip risk any more severe than currently expected
may require a quick statement issuance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 87 72 83 / 30 30 20 10
Houston (IAH) 72 87 75 87 / 30 50 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 77 84 79 87 / 30 40 10 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Scattered showers are developing over the Gulf waters, and this
should largely be expected to continue through the night and
through much of the day Thursday. Though thunderstorms are
unlikely, a brief storm or two embedded amongst the showers is
possible. In or near any storms that may occur, elevated winds
and building seas can be expected. Onshore flow should prevail
until the arrival of the next cold front on Friday. A period of
east to northeast winds is expected in the front`s wake on
Saturday.
At the shore, the persistent onshore flow ahead of the next
(eventual) front will keep water levels high Thursday along with
a moderate risk of rip currents. At high tide for the next cycle
or two, tidal levels are expected around 3 feet above MLLW. Gave
strong consideration to a rip current or beach hazards statement,
but given that conditions are improved over the last several days
back to the weekend, will opt against a statement for now.
However, tides/rip risk any more severe than currently expected
may require a quick statement issuance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 87 72 83 / 30 30 20 10
Houston (IAH) 72 87 75 87 / 30 50 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 77 84 79 87 / 30 40 10 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
They (NWS) have really backed away from the rain chances this afternoon.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Maybe they forgot to click submit this morning....
644
FXUS64 KHGX 290837
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
337 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025
The trend in seeing slightly lower rain chances compared to what
was on yesterday`s forecast continues into today. Models are
suggesting a quasi-zonal flow along the upper-levels for today
and are also in agreement with mid-level heights increasing from
584 dam early this morning to around 588 dam by this afternoon as
a mid-level ridge broadens over the western Gulf. Surface moisture
will be slightly lower than yesterday (PWs between 1.3"-1.6") and
the 500mb moisture levels will be fairly dry. Thus, although we
may still have some rain activity, our PoPs in general are lower
for today.
So what can we expect? To start off, we may see some isolated
showers developing over the Gulf waters early this morning and
could gradually move into our coastal locations throughout the
morning hours. As diurnal heating increases later in the morning
to early afternoon, we might see slightly more shower and
thunderstorm activity (although mostly confined to the southern
portions). Models do show good amounts of SFC and MU CAPE over
areas near and south of I-10 this afternoon, which may help fuel
some of these storms, but we will have to see if they can really
get going in the first place. If they do, however, be aware that
some of these storms may be capable of producing strong gusty
winds, hail, and quick downpours. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy
skies with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
For late tonight into Friday, several models show clusters of
showers and thunderstorms developing over the northern and central
portions of TX along and ahead of a cold front during the day
today. The storms and front look to reach the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods region during the overnight hours and approach the
Houston metro area around sunrise. Once the front moves near the
I-10 corridor Friday morning, it will slow and meander near the
coast for much of the day. Thus, we could be seeing periods of
showers and thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Rain
chances decrease Friday night as the front pushes into the Gulf
waters.
Cotto - 24
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025
In the long term, things look like they start to get a little
boring under a nascent subtropical ridge, but they also don`t look
to get entirely boring. Which...seems kind of ideal, really. Very
interesting weather is usually high impact weather and all the
troubles associated with that. A strong subtropical ridge ensures
nothing but miserable summer heat for us. Instead, we look to be
generally under ridgy conditions, with just enough softness to
allow some shortwave troughs to dent that ridge, keep temperatures
in check, and allow for the diurnal cycle of isolated to scattered
showers and storms to do its thing.
The downside to that for me tonight is that there is very little I
can say beyond those broad strokes with any confidence. Neither
the NAEFS nor the Euro Ensemble means highlight any sort of
very anomalous features through the end of this forecast period
(maybe some 90th percentile temps just beyond this forecast
period? Come back in future days to see!). The EPS Extreme
Forecast Index also shows no real signal of extreme temperatures,
winds, or rainfall in the week to come. So...as long as the
specifics aren`t too important to you, "pretty typical late
May/early June weather" should sum things up well for you.
Now, with that caveat set, let`s try to get into some of those
specifics! Just please remember, many of these details will be
subject to change, so don`t be surprised if I`ve got tweaks
tomorrow night. The driest day of the period should be Saturday.
This is actually a relatively high confidence take given that
we`ll still have offshore winds in the wake of Friday`s weak
front, then onshore flow should return sometime on Sunday and
prevail through at least mid-week. This isn`t going to be a big
drop, but it should be at least a pleasant small relief with
dewpoints dropping into the 60s for all but the immediate Gulf
coast. This should allow low temps on Friday and Saturday nights
to drop into the 60s as well. Enjoy the short break while we get
it though, as 70+ dewpoints will spread back inland in the new
week once onshore winds return on Sunday.
Precip trends should largely follow a diurnal pattern with some
nocturnal showers/storms out over the Gulf, gradually shifting
inland mid-day to afternoon along the seabreeze. Since the
environment will be broadly ridgy, don`t look for a lot of
afternoon convection at all here. Isolated stuff, maybe widely
scattered on a good day if a passing shortwave trough times out
just right with the seabreeze. I certainly wouldn`t expect anyone
to get rained on every day. And a number of us I`d expect to not
see any rain through this stretch. But particularly from the
Houston metro coastward, there`ll still be at least a little
chance every day to win that shower/storm lottery.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025
Largely VFR across area for now, but MVFR CIGs at CXO are
beginning to expand, and already lurking just a short bit away
from IAH and UTS. Some guidance suggests IFR CIGs emerging late
tonight, but hold with FEW mentions for now. It`s plausible,
though, and may need to be amended in. Some patchy fog also
possible, but only mention it at UTS, CXO, and LBX at this time,
as it should be fairly limited.
Tomorrow, should see improvement back to VFR by mid-day. Seabreeze
should see some isolated SHRA, maybe a -TSRA or two...but really
only have the confidence for a PROB30 for coastal terminals GLS
and LBX due to how limited the development should be.
644
FXUS64 KHGX 290837
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
337 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025
The trend in seeing slightly lower rain chances compared to what
was on yesterday`s forecast continues into today. Models are
suggesting a quasi-zonal flow along the upper-levels for today
and are also in agreement with mid-level heights increasing from
584 dam early this morning to around 588 dam by this afternoon as
a mid-level ridge broadens over the western Gulf. Surface moisture
will be slightly lower than yesterday (PWs between 1.3"-1.6") and
the 500mb moisture levels will be fairly dry. Thus, although we
may still have some rain activity, our PoPs in general are lower
for today.
So what can we expect? To start off, we may see some isolated
showers developing over the Gulf waters early this morning and
could gradually move into our coastal locations throughout the
morning hours. As diurnal heating increases later in the morning
to early afternoon, we might see slightly more shower and
thunderstorm activity (although mostly confined to the southern
portions). Models do show good amounts of SFC and MU CAPE over
areas near and south of I-10 this afternoon, which may help fuel
some of these storms, but we will have to see if they can really
get going in the first place. If they do, however, be aware that
some of these storms may be capable of producing strong gusty
winds, hail, and quick downpours. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy
skies with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
For late tonight into Friday, several models show clusters of
showers and thunderstorms developing over the northern and central
portions of TX along and ahead of a cold front during the day
today. The storms and front look to reach the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods region during the overnight hours and approach the
Houston metro area around sunrise. Once the front moves near the
I-10 corridor Friday morning, it will slow and meander near the
coast for much of the day. Thus, we could be seeing periods of
showers and thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Rain
chances decrease Friday night as the front pushes into the Gulf
waters.
Cotto - 24
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025
In the long term, things look like they start to get a little
boring under a nascent subtropical ridge, but they also don`t look
to get entirely boring. Which...seems kind of ideal, really. Very
interesting weather is usually high impact weather and all the
troubles associated with that. A strong subtropical ridge ensures
nothing but miserable summer heat for us. Instead, we look to be
generally under ridgy conditions, with just enough softness to
allow some shortwave troughs to dent that ridge, keep temperatures
in check, and allow for the diurnal cycle of isolated to scattered
showers and storms to do its thing.
The downside to that for me tonight is that there is very little I
can say beyond those broad strokes with any confidence. Neither
the NAEFS nor the Euro Ensemble means highlight any sort of
very anomalous features through the end of this forecast period
(maybe some 90th percentile temps just beyond this forecast
period? Come back in future days to see!). The EPS Extreme
Forecast Index also shows no real signal of extreme temperatures,
winds, or rainfall in the week to come. So...as long as the
specifics aren`t too important to you, "pretty typical late
May/early June weather" should sum things up well for you.
Now, with that caveat set, let`s try to get into some of those
specifics! Just please remember, many of these details will be
subject to change, so don`t be surprised if I`ve got tweaks
tomorrow night. The driest day of the period should be Saturday.
This is actually a relatively high confidence take given that
we`ll still have offshore winds in the wake of Friday`s weak
front, then onshore flow should return sometime on Sunday and
prevail through at least mid-week. This isn`t going to be a big
drop, but it should be at least a pleasant small relief with
dewpoints dropping into the 60s for all but the immediate Gulf
coast. This should allow low temps on Friday and Saturday nights
to drop into the 60s as well. Enjoy the short break while we get
it though, as 70+ dewpoints will spread back inland in the new
week once onshore winds return on Sunday.
Precip trends should largely follow a diurnal pattern with some
nocturnal showers/storms out over the Gulf, gradually shifting
inland mid-day to afternoon along the seabreeze. Since the
environment will be broadly ridgy, don`t look for a lot of
afternoon convection at all here. Isolated stuff, maybe widely
scattered on a good day if a passing shortwave trough times out
just right with the seabreeze. I certainly wouldn`t expect anyone
to get rained on every day. And a number of us I`d expect to not
see any rain through this stretch. But particularly from the
Houston metro coastward, there`ll still be at least a little
chance every day to win that shower/storm lottery.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025
Largely VFR across area for now, but MVFR CIGs at CXO are
beginning to expand, and already lurking just a short bit away
from IAH and UTS. Some guidance suggests IFR CIGs emerging late
tonight, but hold with FEW mentions for now. It`s plausible,
though, and may need to be amended in. Some patchy fog also
possible, but only mention it at UTS, CXO, and LBX at this time,
as it should be fairly limited.
Tomorrow, should see improvement back to VFR by mid-day. Seabreeze
should see some isolated SHRA, maybe a -TSRA or two...but really
only have the confidence for a PROB30 for coastal terminals GLS
and LBX due to how limited the development should be.
Yep. That's probably all she wrote for us. We only got 0.20 inches from yesterday's system. Great while it lasted!
A pleasant Friday and Saturday behind the FROPA, then prepare for the June Suck. Hot and humid. Maybe some scattered showers in a week. Maybe.
The good news for south of Navasota. Seabreeze season could be here.
Still better than the Death Ridge Big Suck.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025
Light easterly to east-southeasterly winds and VFR conditions will
prevail through the evening hours areawide. There remains a low
probability for isolated showers to develop along the seabreeze
this afternoon, but the main convective impacts look to occur
late tonight/early Friday morning for the northern sites. A line
of decaying showers/storms will be moving in from the northwest
overnight, and there is a bit of discrepancy on how far south
it`ll make it before it dissipates. For now, this has been covered
with PROB30s at the northern sites. A weak cold front will also be
pushing through the region beginning early Friday morning...but it
will struggle to push all the way through during the daytime
hours. Although winds will be light, there will be a southwestward
shift ahead of the front and a northerly shift behind the front.
Additionally, MVFR ceilings/visibilities will be possible
overnight into early Friday mainly between 09Z-15Z. As the front
nears the coast in the late afternoon hours, some isolated to
scattered showers/storms will be possible along the frontal
boundary.
Batiste
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025
Light easterly to east-southeasterly winds and VFR conditions will
prevail through the evening hours areawide. There remains a low
probability for isolated showers to develop along the seabreeze
this afternoon, but the main convective impacts look to occur
late tonight/early Friday morning for the northern sites. A line
of decaying showers/storms will be moving in from the northwest
overnight, and there is a bit of discrepancy on how far south
it`ll make it before it dissipates. For now, this has been covered
with PROB30s at the northern sites. A weak cold front will also be
pushing through the region beginning early Friday morning...but it
will struggle to push all the way through during the daytime
hours. Although winds will be light, there will be a southwestward
shift ahead of the front and a northerly shift behind the front.
Additionally, MVFR ceilings/visibilities will be possible
overnight into early Friday mainly between 09Z-15Z. As the front
nears the coast in the late afternoon hours, some isolated to
scattered showers/storms will be possible along the frontal
boundary.
Batiste