April 2023

[Stratton20]

Severe thunderstorm watch issued until 9 pm, keep a very close on the radar everyone

[don]

18Z HRRR

Screenshot 2023-04-20 at 14-11-19 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-04-20 at 14-20-36 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-04-20 at 14-14-59 Models HRRR — Pivotal Weather.png

[DoctorMu]

Most of the mesos give CLL a broken line or near miss or it. The really severe stuff may set up for Louisiana as usual. It's going to be a coin flip here.

[don]

Most of the mesos give CLL a broken line or near miss or it. The really severe stuff may set up for Louisiana as usual. It's going to be a coin flip here.

Actually Louisiana may not get too much from this system anymore.Models have shifted the main corridor of storms further west over South central Texas and SE Texas.Several models now have the MCS only clipping the Louisiana coast with most of the activity moving offshore the Texas coast into the gulf.

18Z NAM now onboard also with the pre frontal disturbance moving through SE Texas tonight with a MCS.

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[DoctorMu]

Getting a few streamer showers ahead of the potential MCV this evening. I missed the mowing window. Fortunately I traded my Briggs & Stratton Sears mower for a Honda engine powered Cub Cadet during COVID. It cuts through grass like buttah.

[Stratton20]

Didnt think id see my name in a lawn mower brand but yeah already starting to see some cells firing up, could quickly go severe

[DoctorMu]

[DoctorMu]

Didnt think id see my name in a lawn mower brand

That was the issue. Worked on a Monday or a Thursday, but not on a Friday or a Sunday.

[don]

MCS starting to develop in central Texas.

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[DoctorMu]

MCS starting to develop in central Texas.

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Thar she blows...

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[Stratton20]

Man that MCS is packing a huge punch, so many warnings!

[don]

A Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be issued for most of the area soon.That sure is a large and potent supercell over San Antonio right now.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0585
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153...155...

Valid 210014Z - 210145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153, 155
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will shift southeast this evening. New
Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Frontal convection continues to grow upscale, extending
from west of Fredericksburg into central TX where an MCV may be
evolving over Limestone County. 1km inflow has increased ahead of
this activity over the upper TX Coast and there is increasing
confidence this evolving MCS will continue to forward propagate,
likely spreading toward/across the HGX CWA. Given the current
speed/movement, a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
warranted across portions of the TX Coastal Plain/upper TX Coast.

..Darrow.. 04/21/2023

[DoctorMu]

The MCS is Ramping up...

Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTSON AND EAST CENTRAL MILAM COUNTIES...

At 717 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 4 miles west of Mumford, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.
This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Robertson and east central Milam Counties, including the
following locations... Benchley, Wheelock, Mumford and Gause.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

[Stratton20]

Lots of lightning here!

[DoctorMu]

Lots of lightning here!

Jason Cooley is in town. Jinx and/or doom?

[don]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
747 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

TXC041-051-477-210115-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-230421T0115Z/
Burleson TX-Brazos TX-Washington TX-
747 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR BURLESON...BRAZOS AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 746 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Hearne to 9 miles west of Wixon Valley to Bryan
Utilities Lake to 7 miles northeast of Caldwell to 7 miles east of
Tanglewood, moving east southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to
mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Caldwell, Somerville, Snook, Kurten, Wixon
Valley, Millican, Lake Somerville Dam, Lake Somerville State Park &
Trailway, Kyle Field, Bryan Utilities Lake, Lyons, Deanville,
Independence, Chriesman and Wellborn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

[DoctorMu]

Bow echo. Lightning. Wind and rain. No hail yet. Fingers crossed. I haven't cleared out the garage!

[DoctorMu]

Lots of lightning here!

Jason Cooley is in town. Jinx and/or doom?

Cooley's wandering around Graham Road and now Wellborn Rd. looking for hail.

Major rain, though. I'm glad we moved into a house 14 years ago that drains into my neighbors' yards.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like San Antonio cell died. Nothing south of 105.

[don]

Severe thunderstorm watch issued till 2 am.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
810 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
western Louisiana
eastern and southeastern Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 810 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms moving across central and eastern
Texas are expected to continue over the next several hours. With
some upscale growth into a bowing MCS now underway, moving
east-southeastward out of central Texas, risk for damaging winds
will likely spread across portions of the upper and middle Texas
Coastal Plain over the next several hours, along with potential for
large hail and possibly a tornado. Elsewhere, more isolated severe
storms will likely persist through this evening, also posing
local/all-hazard severe risk.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles north of Fort Polk
LA to 35 miles west northwest of Palacios TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.