August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[davidiowx]

I know its all fun and games with the guessing where Grace will make landfall, but I think the best way to say this is anywhere from Northern Mexico To matagorda bay is where this could potentially make landfall, too much uncertainty

Lol.. says to much uncertainty, then guesses the storm will make landfall within a 250 mile area.. come on man.

[Stratton20]

Davidiowx thats why i said its all fun and games lol, im just sharing what I think the broad range of tracks could be for grace while giving my own guess, I didnt contradict myself

[Scott747]

Ridging as just as strong on the 18z GFS as it crosses the YP and into the BoC.

[don]

A little concerned with street flooding in the metro, as two boundaries are merging over the 59 corridor at the moment,with very heavy rain.

[Stratton20]

This is a very challenging forecast, most of the Euro ensemble members plus the operational runs favor a Texas Landfall plus most of the tropical tidbits hurricane model guidance also favor a texas landfall while the GFS and its ensemble members mostly favor Mexico , lots to watch, only time will tell really

[Cromagnum]

Nasty line moving in now.

[Scott747]

Well sure enough recon found a 'center' although still ill defined at 17n for Grace.

[Stratton20]

Scott747 yep but at least it something the models can pick up on now though

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

TXZ213-214-227-237-238-313-152345-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Harris TX-Chambers TX-Inland Galveston TX-
Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
545 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...Strong showers and thunderstorms could impact portions of western
Galveston, east central Fort Bend, northeastern Brazoria,
northwestern Chambers and southeastern Harris Counties through 645
PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking areas of strong showers
and thunderstorms near and along a line from the Baytown area to
Houston Hobby to around the Fresno area. Movement was south to
southwest at around 10 mph.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible with the
stronger storms or where any training sets up. Localized flooding is
possible.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and locally heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Pearland, southwestern League City, Baytown, northern
Missouri City, Friendswood, Deer Park, Alvin, South Houston,
Bellaire, West University Place, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Webster,
Manvel, Hunters Creek Village, Cloverleaf, Downtown Houston, Greenway
/ Upper Kirby Area and Second Ward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Areas of brief torrential rainfall is also occurring with these
storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in League City.

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

TXZ213-214-227-237-238-313-152345-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Harris TX-Chambers TX-Inland Galveston TX-
Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
545 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...Strong showers and thunderstorms could impact portions of western
Galveston, east central Fort Bend, northeastern Brazoria,
northwestern Chambers and southeastern Harris Counties through 645
PM CDT...

At 542 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking areas of strong showers
and thunderstorms near and along a line from the Baytown area to
Houston Hobby to around the Fresno area. Movement was south to
southwest at around 10 mph.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible with the
stronger storms or where any training sets up. Localized flooding is
possible.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and locally heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Pearland, southwestern League City, Baytown, northern
Missouri City, Friendswood, Deer Park, Alvin, South Houston,
Bellaire, West University Place, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Webster,
Manvel, Hunters Creek Village, Cloverleaf, Downtown Houston, Greenway
/ Upper Kirby Area and Second Ward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Areas of brief torrential rainfall is also occurring with these
storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in League City.

[Cpv17]

Heck the latest GFS has this going way far south. Like Veracruz area.

[Stratton20]

NHC reconnaissance flight is finding a potentially closed low level center with strongest winds on the NE side around 44 mph, Grace may already be attempting to reorganize again

[Cromagnum]

Wow. Good thing I got 2 tenths from a popcorn shower earlier today. This giant line evaporated right before it got to me and formed two separate storms.

[Cpv17]

Wow. Good thing I got 2 tenths from a popcorn shower earlier today. This giant line evaporated right before it got to me and formed two separate storms.

Yeah we didn’t get anything here but Friday we received 1.25”
so I’m not complaining. Pretty good rain chances the next few days so hopefully everyone can get an inch or two.

[dp6]

If no one's already claimed it, I'm taking Cat 3 into Galveston in the prediction lottery.

When the new thread is started in Hurricane Central, it needs to be called, "The Amazing Grace." And yes, I hope my prediction turns out to be a botched slingshot watermelon to the face.

(This post should be read in Phil Keoghan's voice.)

[DoctorMu]

Nasty line moving in now.

It was pretty intense with a lot of lighting up here a couple of hours ago. Sprinklers on stun again. Heavy rain. 1.41 inches locally. I haven't set up my new electronic rain gauge yet for backyard measurements.

[Stratton20]

Welp Grace is probably going to get upgraded back to a TS soon

[Kingwood36]

60 mm/hr rain rate reported by recon.
Grace is strengthening pretty quickly..should be updated back to TS at the 10 pm

[Katdaddy]

A question for everyone. Are you ready if we have a significant hurricane threat? I will never forget the Rita 2005 evacuation. I was not ready then but better prepared now. Laura was test last year waiting for that more NW turn.

[Rip76]

A question for everyone. Are you ready if we have a significant hurricane threat? I will never forget the Rita 2005 evacuation. I was not ready then but better prepared now. Laura was test last year waiting for that more NW turn.

I left for Laura last year, just because it was too close for comfort.
We, (me and my son) drove to South Padre about a day and 1/2 before with no traffic issues.