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If that. 48 hours before landfall the consensus on Sally was very close to NOLA.

No doubt Jason

BTW 90L looks like a TD to me.

12z HWRF takes it through the ship channel as a moderate TS.

Thru hr 72 the 12 Euro is faster towards the lower Texas coast with a TS offshore of Brownsville.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:23 pm Thru hr 72 the 12 Euro is faster towards the lower Texas coast with a TS offshore of Brownsville.

And just sitting there! Sheesh

davidiowx wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:28 pm

Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:23 pm Thru hr 72 the 12 Euro is faster towards the lower Texas coast with a TS offshore of Brownsville.

And just sitting there! Sheesh

Ever so slight movement is towards Baffin Bay then slowly moving n and offshore of Corpus thru hr 120.

12Z EURO shows 90L as a strong tropical storm stalled off the lower/middle Texas coast as a pretty large northern sided system with rainbands as far inland as central Texas.

Wow the Euro is quite interesting.. just riding up the TX Coast over the course of 2-3 days..

Like previous runs the Euro begins lifting the system out to the ne before any landfall and into central la.

Recon should be about to take off soon out of Ellington and if they find it organized enough advisories would begin at 4.

Get a little more clarity if so...

Latest Tropical models

We can't buy an easy straight forward track this season!

Can someone tell me what is causing the ne ejection of 90L into Louisiana? Is it the huge trough just off the east coast?

Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:55 pm Recon should be about to take off soon out of Ellington and if they find it organized enough advisories would begin at 4.

Get a little more clarity if so...

Does recon normally take off out of Ellington for possible Texas storms?

Looks like because of teddy maybe

Rip76 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:10 pm

Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:55 pm Recon should be about to take off soon out of Ellington and if they find it organized enough advisories would begin at 4.

Get a little more clarity if so...

Does recon normally take off out of Ellington for possible Texas storms?

They were re positioned from Mississippi to Ellington for Sally.

Oh 10-4.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:04 pm Can someone tell me what is causing the ne ejection of 90L into Louisiana? Is it the huge trough just off the east coast?

On the Euro it looks like the cutoff low that influences Teddy to move towards New England. Only model really showing it and based on the NHC track for Teddy they ain't buying it either. I'd guess the Euro will drop it in the upcoming runs.

So far obs look borderline for an upgrade.