Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[redfish1]

the canadian, nam, gfs, and gfdl moved north.

[biggerbyte]

Keep an eye on it, folks. Remember what I said earlier about these things. Watch what the trof does in relation to the movement of the storm. If you start to notice a northerly component in the movement at any time, it means it is being influenced by a change in the strength of the ridge. Not likely, especially this time of the year, but a weakness can be introduced in the ridge by above mentioned, which could allow the storm to move towards it.

Time will tell...

[Andrew]

You can see Alex is feeling the effects of land and you can see a strong area of convection to the NorthWest of the center. Possible center relocation? Doubt it but should be interesting to watch. Also the GFDL sends this thing right at South-East Texas, west of Galveston.

[cisa]

Just got in from Mexico and boy did we have some heavy rain and strong winds Thursday night after leaving Cozumel. The cruise ship was posting winds in the 50 mph range off and on for several hours that night. I guess the was associated w/Alex?

[srainhoutx]

You can see Alex is feeling the effects of land and you can see a strong area of convection to the NorthWest of the center. Possible center relocation? Doubt it but should be interesting to watch.

Thursday night and Cozumel, I'd guess, if memory serves, that was the preceding wave, the former 92L.

Thursday night we were watching 93L undergoing cyclogenesis while you were on vacation Ed. Good catch Andrew.

[Andrew]

You can see Alex is feeling the effects of land and you can see a strong area of convection to the NorthWest of the center. Possible center relocation? Doubt it but should be interesting to watch. Also the GFDL sends this thing right at South-East Texas, west of Galveston.

Sustained TS force winds. If the GFDL was correct.

Lets see what the 0Z GFS and especially the 0Z Euro show. I'll be in bed before the 0Z Euro, lest I have a hard time staying awake during the sermon, which would be bad.


Thursday night and Cozumel, I'd guess, if memory serves, that was the preceding wave, the former 92L.

Yea for Galveston area I believe but had it at a cat 3. If the Euro follows then things are going to be interesting but if Alex never turns Northwest then there is nothing to worry about because it won't even get back into water. I expect the NHC to put the cone further north (maybe not much but at least a little) to "average" between the model differences. In all honesty though I expect the Euro not to change much. Tomorrow should be the day that determines what this storm does or doesn't do.


OT: Good to see you back Ed. How was your trip?

[cisa]

Thanks guys, that clears things up a bit for me. I knew something was going on because the seas were so rough that night and it sure seemed like the cruise shio was trying to outrun something.

[srainhoutx]

AL, 01, 2010062700, , BEST, 0, 175N, 881W, 50, 998, TS

[Mr. T]

Two of the three 00z BAMM models just made a major shift north to the Upper Texas Coast.

However, these models are not really to be used in this area of the tropics, considering they are only statistical and not dynamic... I suppose it raises an eyebrow

[Mr. T]

I believe there is a version of the GFDL initialized/boundry conditions off NoGaps, or there was, anyway, but I have never been able to find it on the world wide interwebs.

Is that the GFNL?

[Mr. T]

Here's a radar composite as Alex makes landfall on the Yucatan:

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Radar%20Loop%20250km.htm

[Mr. T]

GFDN

Got it...

[redfish1]

23.6N 93.7W
25.0N 94.1W
thats a pretty big jump to the north

[Paul]

I have never seen such a consesus only to be split again........not one storm comes to mind. If the EURO flips I am going to eat some serious crow....

I will be part of the night crew tonight....staying up ONE more night for the EURO....then that is it for me until the next threat...

[Mr. T]

The center of Alex is definitely suddenly north of the NHC track...

[Paul]

Man, the BAMMS did shift a few hundred miles....sheesh....thats a 180 for sure.....NHC will nudge this guy north some but not much....to early to say a trend unless at 1:30am tonight the EURO follows....at that point I will be going to fill up my gas cans...

[Hardcoreweather]

[Mr. T]

mentioned last page, The Beta Advection Models get all their inputs on mean layer steering from the previous GFS run, so a big swing in the 0Z BAMs would be expected after the 18Z GFS had a big swing. The GFDL is also initialized and bounded by the previous GFS run, so the 0Z GFDL may swing North as well.

This may be true, but, the BAMM models were showing a Mexican landfall while the GFDL was showing a FL Panhandle landfall a few days ago, for whatever reason...

However, despite all of this, I still expect this to stay on a general WNW course to a 2nd landfall in Mexico

[Bluefalcon]

Looking at the NHC satellite loop, it looks like Alex's COC is making landfall north of the forcast position point. Would this have any effect on the GFS and GFDL moving back to the north?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Paul]

oh I am not denying that a MX landfall is the most logical choice right now. What I am worried about is I have been tootting my EURO horn for 3 days and dont want a pie in my face....