July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[TXWeatherMan]

Not sure how good the NAM, HRR, WRF, and RGEM are with tropical systems, but they all send it to the Texas coast.

[Andrew]

Not sure how good the NAM, HRR, WRF, and RGEM are with tropical systems, but they all send it to the Texas coast.

Historically, they are the worst models for tropical forecasting.

[davidiowx]

Interesting..

[tireman4]

But...the UKMET has statred to shine as of late .

[cperk]

Yeah I mean, we are 3 days out last 2 euro runs been on point east of lake Charles, I thinking it’s getting a grasp

The data from recon has not been ingested into the models yet.

[Rip76]

Interesting..

What, that far south?

[davidiowx]

Interesting..

What, that far south?

Well there are multiple "centers" it seems. I believe the one further south will end up being the center and if that is the case, then the Euro and GFS initialized a little to far North.. in my personal opinion. Time will tell though.

[djmike]

Whats interesting about the flight? Please explain?
Also, what time is this next cone update? Looking at the latest models with NHc track included, all but maybe one are east of track. Have a feeling the track may be nudged east. Thoughts?

[djmike]

Also how soon will the HH data be ingested?

[jasons2k]

Yeah recon shows a second wind shift to the south. Still a mess. Models will struggle until probably tomorrow am.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Interesting..

What, that far south?

Well there are multiple "centers" it seems. I believe the one further south will end up being the center and if that is the case, then the Euro and GFS initialized a little to far North.. in my personal opinion. Time will tell though.

Yep. It’s also why my gut says Jefferson County to Lake Chucky... the trough isn’t going to have as much effect that the GFS and Euro are showing

[Rip76]

What, that far south?

Well there are multiple "centers" it seems. I believe the one further south will end up being the center and if that is the case, then the Euro and GFS initialized a little to far North.. in my personal opinion. Time will tell though.

Yep. It’s also why my gut says Jefferson County to Lake Chucky... the trough isn’t going to have as much effect that the GFS and Euro are showing

Especially if it’s further South

[Kingwood36]

Well there are multiple "centers" it seems. I believe the one further south will end up being the center and if that is the case, then the Euro and GFS initialized a little to far North.. in my personal opinion. Time will tell though.

Yep. It’s also why my gut says Jefferson County to Lake Chucky... the trough isn’t going to have as much effect that the GFS and Euro are showing

Especially if it’s further South

So the further south it is the less the trough will have to do with it and make it go more west?

[djmike]

When is the next cone of uncertainty update ?

[srainhoutx]

When is the next cone of uncertainty update ?

4 PM we get a full package update from the NHC with new information and graphics.

[Pas_Bon]

When is the next cone of uncertainty update ?

4pm

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yep. It’s also why my gut says Jefferson County to Lake Chucky... the trough isn’t going to have as much effect that the GFS and Euro are showing

Especially if it’s further South

So the further south it is the less the trough will have to do with it and make it go more west?

That’s one variable, but yes. I also don’t think the trough will have that N of a pull. We need to also see whether our ridge in the west strengthens....

[djmike]

Thanks guys

[Andrew]

The consolidation to the south where recon found a slight wind shift is probably where you will see the center form. That is where a lot of models indicate it will occur. With that said, if that does happen it looks to be ~30-50miles south of what models are showing. Will, that have much impact on the overall track? I don't think as much as we think. I think what will be more determining is how fast this storm intensifies and can feel the impacts of the trough.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1149 ... 29/photo/1