January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

NWS has extended the Flash Flood Warning until 1045am from Harris County.

Additional heavy rainfall has developed and is spreading into western Harris County, but it not nearly as organized as the rainfall earlier this morning. Rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches have fallen over SW into central and NE Harris County this morning leading to significant rises on area watersheds and widespread street flooding.

Current Channel Conditions:

Brays Bayou: a bankfull…nearing crest…some homes may be flooding in Meyerland. Portions of SH 288 mainlanes are flooded
Hunting Bayou: bankfull at Lockwood…significant street flooding at 610/Lockwood. Bayou near crest
Keegans Bayou: crested and falling, but overbanks at Roark. Some homes may near the channel may be flooding
Willow Waterhole: near bankfull in Westbury, but cresting
Upper Spring Creek: near bankfull and rising slowly
Upper Cypress Creek: within 3 ft of bank full and rising slowly
Lower South Mayde Creek: near crest at bankfull
Lower White Oak Bayou: just below bankfull. Flooding of White Oak Dr and portions of I-45 mainlanes in progress from both high bayous flow and intense rainfall rates

[Andrew]

As long as the coastal low stays to our southwest we should see a steady stream of scattered storms. Upper level low over the four corners is still not moving much. Will be interesting to see how the trends continue into the night. A lot of the high resolution models are having trouble handling everything.

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center continues their Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in the 15Z Update. HGX believes another 1 to 3 inches may be possible from 11:00 AM to 1:00 PM with the disturbance moving our way from Central Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Rainfall shifting eastward off of Harris County…but additional heavy rains possible around mid day into the afternoon hours.

Watersheds are starting to fall in the central and SW portion of Harris County, but street flooding remains widespread with impacts on several major roadways and freeways. Water will continue to recede and drain as long as the rainfall break remains. High resolution models show additional activity either developing or moving into the area from the W/SW later this morning into the afternoon hours along stalled surface boundary roughly aligned with US 59. Concern remains for any cell training or heavy rainfall rates along and NW of the US 59 corridor as this would result in run-off and rises on area channels.

Brays: crested upstream of TMC and falling
Keegans: crested and falling…flooding still ongoing near Roark
Hunting: Holding at bankfull at Lockwood (Kashmere Gardens), just below bankfull along rest of channel
Upper Spring Creek: overbanks and rising slowly
Upper Cypress Creek: in banks, but rising
Greens Bayou: winthin banks and rising slowly downstream of US 59

My main concern going forward continues to be NW Harris County creeks which will continue to rise for much of the day. Additional rainfall in those areas will only increase rises and run-off and could bring some of those channels to flood levels. As for White Oak, Buffalo, Brays…these channels will drain out quickly this morning and should be able to handle another 1-2 inches by late morning/early afternoon. With that said any sustained cell training along or NW of US 59 will be problematic for any areas given fully saturated grounds.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1014 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017

Wharton TX-Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
1014 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Western Harris County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 415 PM CST Wednesday.

* At 1010 AM CST, emergency management officials reported flooding
resulting in numerous road closures across Wharton, Fort Bend, and
Harris Counties. Up to four to six inches of rain fell across the
warning area earlier this morning and water has been slow to drain
in many of these areas. Residents are asked to check with local
officials for the most complete listing of road closures.

* Additional rainfall is expected this afternoon across parts of the
warning area and Flash Flood Warnings may be needed if heavy
rainfall occurs.

* Residents are urged to stay out of flood waters as they may
contain hazards including chemicals, fire ants, or snakes.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Sugar Land, northwestern Missouri City, Rosenberg, Stafford,
Bellaire, Humble, West University Place, Katy, Richmond, Jacinto
City, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point
Village, Astrodome Area, Spring Valley, Greater Fifth Ward, Spring
Branch West, Neartown / Montrose, Second Ward and Near Northside
Houston.

[DoctorMu]

Still on the cool side of the stalled front in CLL. Lots of rain 3.25 in IMBY through 10 pm last night. Probably another 1.5 inches.


Reservoirs should be full - that's for sure. California has seen their drought-busting rains as a preview.

[jasons2k]

I've had 2.11" since midnight. The front is practically on top of me, but I'm definitely on the warm side as the temp has jumped 10 degrees since 9AM, and the wind has swung around to the south. It's light, but south now. Temp is 69 degrees with a dew point also of 69 - almost 70.

[wxman57]

Around 5" at my house. Rain gauge had 4.6" when I left for work around 8am. More rain fell after that and it's raining now. Quite a bit of street flooding in Meyerland/Westbury. Saw a number of flooded-out cars abandoned in the roadway.

[ticka1]

is the wave out to the west the last of the rain?

[jasons2k]

Wind shifted again and temp dropped a few degrees...

[Texaspirate11]

Hearing a couple of rumbles but still no rain by the bay area.

[unome]

from http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/

still looks juicy

[jasons2k]

Looks like this shortwave is moving out and dragging the front a bit to the east and southeast now. And we look out west again....

[wxman57]

Looking at the high-res ECMWF data, it's forecasting widespread 25-35 mph sustained winds across Houston on Sunday afternoon with gusts over 50 mph. There's an area of 60 mph gusts in southern Montgomery County around 3pm Sunday. Could be some significant power outages across the city. Worst wind will be from 10am-5pm Sunday in the wake of Saturday night's Pacific cold front.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday afternoon update from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall is moving eastward out of Harris County with no additional development currently upstream to our W/SW.

Rainfall amounts over the last 12 hours averaged 4-6 inches from Sugar Land to Downtown Houston to south of Lake Houston with almost no rainfall over SE Harris County and 1-2 inches over the NW portion of the county. Surface front has progressed southward to near the coast this afternoon while the next upstream disturbance approaches from NE MX. Feel that showers and thunderstorms will develop overnight as this disturbances moves across the area, but the heaviest activity will focus near the coast or just offshore with mainly light to moderate rainfall inland across areas heavily impacted today.

While grounds are saturated and several watersheds running high, feel that the expected additional rainfall can be handled unless sustained cell training develops with high rainfall rates. Watersheds will continue to fall this evening and overnight with all likely returning to their banks later this evening.

Some roadway flooding will continue into the evening hours as roadways slowly drain.

[unome]

from The Weather Channel

https://weather.com/forecast/regional/n ... id-january

cue the calls from worried relatives...

[Texaspirate11]

When the relatives called I told them we got a half inch of rain. They seemed disappointed or something....

[sau27]

With grounds now saturated is there any worry that the wind event forecast for this weekend could topple trees? Or is the ground expected to be sufficiently dried out by then?

[mckinne63]

Should we expect more rain this evening?

[mckinne63]

Wind shifted again and temp dropped a few degrees...

Temps dropped here too. Feels rather nice outside now! Earlier today it got quite muggy.