May Weather Discussion.

[Rip76]

The reason is not science at all.

It is because, once again I stayed up late to see the storms come in.
If I were asleep right now, this would not be the case.

[wxdata]

The reason is not science at all.

It is because, once again I stayed up late to see the storms come in.
If I were asleep right now, this would not be the case.

Well, a few had some 'fun' today and tonight. Areas inside the loop were mostly untouched.

[Andrew]

The reason is not science at all.

It is because, once again I stayed up late to see the storms come in.
If I were asleep right now, this would not be the case.

Well, a few had some 'fun' today and tonight. Areas inside the loop were mostly untouched.

Yea but don't you also agree wxdata that tomorrow looks promising?

[Ptarmigan]

These small mesoscale things can drive forecasters crazy! It may have been the stabilization from the earlier storms, or the 'heat island' affect, or something completely different!

I notice storms tend to break up over urban areas. I think the heat island effect plays a role.

[wxdata]

I notice storms tend to break up over urban areas. I think the heat island effect plays a role.

There's been a lot of debate about that (especially here in Houston among meteorologists.) I know of no definitive study that has truly answered that question (about Houston...)

[wxdata]

Interesting how that line has kind of filled back in with light rain from the storms north and south of the city...

[wxdata]

0z NAM again shows no cap for tomorrow and if the storms can get going, some could again become strong/severe..

[wxdata]

Need to keep an eye on the storms west of here moving east/southeast. Tornado warning for DeWitt County (Cuero) until midnight.

They may not affect Harris, but points southwest could be under the gun again..

[djjordan]

Looks like a flare up in Western Brazoria county at the moment .... also those storms out west that had the Tornado Warning on it weakened a bit but is still heading towards Jackson, Matagorda and Brazoria counties eventually .....

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
108 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT

* AT 102 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILD PEACH VILLAGE...OR NEAR SWEENY...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO WEST COLUMBIA...RICHWOOD...OYSTER CREEK...LAKE
JACKSON...JONES CREEK...FREEPORT...CLUTE AND BRAZORIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE
PROPERTY DAMAGE OR SERIOUS INJURY. AVOID WINDOWS AND TAKE COVER NOW!

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FOR THE WARNED
AREA.

[djjordan]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
129 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

TXC039-180639-
/O.CAN.KHGX.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-100518T0700Z/
BRAZORIA TX-
129 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BRAZORIA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED
OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM FOR THE WARNED
AREA.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[Mr. T]

0z NAM again shows no cap for tomorrow and if the storms can get going, some could again become strong/severe..

The GFS has been rather terrible lately... The GFS yet again shows the chance of rain below 20 percent for tommorow, with the NAM at likely POPs...

[srainhoutx]

Could be another active afternoon...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
657 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010


.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUR ATMOSPHERE IS
STILL MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE
DAY CONVECTION. MORE SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARIES LAYING ABOUT THAN
24 HOURS AGO AND...WITH A NORTHERN STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...THE STORM THREAT WILL INCREASE PAST MID-DAY AS LOW 80
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET. HIGH ANVIL BLOW-OFF FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS MCS MAY INHIBIT EARLY WARMING...MAY ULTIMATELY AFFECT TIMING
OF ANY CONVECTIVE ONSET. LATE PERIOD FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER SKIES TOTALLY CLEAR AND/OR WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS AS SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 5
KNOTS. 31

[niner21]

So when does this juicy air move on out (well, the rain at least)?

Looks like end of the week shows clearing? Is there a small front or High that will push out this mess? I'm all for the rain but I'm pretty sure we've caught up in this area. I've got a building pad and some concrete to do this week.... Rather not be fighting the mud.

Are we back to normal Houston 20% rain summer pattern or what?

[wxdata]

So when does this juicy air move on out (well, the rain at least)?

Looks like end of the week shows clearing? Is there a small front or High that will push out this mess? I'm all for the rain but I'm pretty sure we've caught up in this area. I've got a building pad and some concrete to do this week.... Rather not be fighting the mud.

Are we back to normal Houston 20% rain summer pattern or what?

No front or high- cap returns by the end of the week squashing rain chances.

[rnmm]

I was just going to ask about the weekend weather as I have a party planned at my house on Saturday...an outdoor party LOL...so bring on the rain during the week but please let the weekend be dry

[jgreak]

No front or high- cap returns by the end of the week squashing rain chances.

Is that cap going to be sticking around again this time? Jeez I really hope not, I missed out on my summer thunderstorms last year, would sure hate to have a repeat of it this year!

[svrwx0503]

Starting to see some showers and thunderstorms develop along the sea breeze in southern Brazoria and Galveston counties.

[rnmm]

Hearing lots of thunder overhead we need the rain so I welcome it...I just don't want it to get real bad...can someone please tell me how big of a severe threat this/these storms are? Thank you as always

[svrwx0503]

Hearing lots of thunder overhead we need the rain so I welcome it...I just don't want it to get real bad...can someone please tell me how big of a severe threat this/these storms are? Thank you as always

Right now it looks like the main threats with those storms right now will be dangerous lightning, some gusty winds and maybe some small hail. Since they do not look to be moving very fast, some localized flooding will also be a concern in your typical low lying spots.