February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[jasons2k]

NNW winds in Victoria. Looks like the low is setting up in Wharton Cty. and moving off to the NE. Some cells developing in Matagorda/Wharton and will move NE thru Brazoria/Galveston Ctys., and then it's over. Looks like areas NW/north of there will miss the heavy action.

[txflagwaver]

A "bust" because we did not get severe weather/tornadoes? Well if its a choice between a "bust" and this
http://www.disastersafety.org/content/d ... 5B9%5D.jpg

I'll take the bust...every time.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It was a bust in regards to total rainfall... I was hoping for 2 inches plus again, but if I can get 2-3 inches for the week, I'll be happy.

[srainhoutx]

Another day and another 1/2 inch of rain. Meanwhile we are making steady improvement on our drought situation so I guess we should be happy with that. Shouldn't we...

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Brazoria and Galveston Counties heads up. Some week rotation noted with the cell just E of Sweeny heading E

[srainhoutx]

The HPC has a lot of interest in the upcoming weekend. A new full package of Winter Storm Recon has been tasked that includes C-130 missions from AK to G-IV high altitude from HI...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST MON 13 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-075

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. P-56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 15/0000Z
B. AFXXX 18WSC TRACK 56
C. 14/1845Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 15/0600Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA49
A. P-56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 15/1200Z
B. NOAA9 19WSC TRACK56
C. 15/0730Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 15/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. P-56/ DROP 9/ 16/0000Z
B. P-56/ DROP 9/ 16/1200Z

[MontgomeryCoWx]

srain... it looks like the models aren't handling the temps well for this weekend? Am I missing something?

[wxman57]

Rain event is ending for Houston now. Mostly light to moderate showers. No severe weather. Over an inch at my house again. That makes over 14" for the year.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Over an inch at my house again. That makes over 14" for the year.

Very nice! We need it. We are on the light side today... only .4 inches up here. Still a tad under 13 inches for the year.

[texoz]

what's the timing on the mid-week system, specifically for Central TX. Looks like a fast mover?

[wxman57]

what's the timing on the mid-week system, specifically for Central TX. Looks like a fast mover?

Late morning through late afternoon Wednesday (locally). Main energy passing well to our north. Severe weather potential looks very low - less than today.

[wxman57]

Houston area rainfall totals can be found here. Great site for analyzing rainfall totals for the past hour to the past year:

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

Below is the map as of 1:45pm:

[Ptarmigan]

Houston area rainfall totals can be found here. Great site for analyzing rainfall totals for the past hour to the past year:

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

Below is the map as of 1:45pm:

I looked at the map and did rainfall since January 1, 2012. The total ranged from 7 to almost 15 inches of rain.

[srainhoutx]

Dense fog blankets the region this morning will give way to warmer temps and an onshore flow as the day progresses. The SE flow at the surface with a SW flow aloft as a U/L trough to our W begins to trek E in a fast split flow will set the stage for an active Wednesday. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms mainly to the N and E of Metro Houston, but expect further 'fine tuning' as the day wears on. Showers/storms, with some severe storms appear likely mainly along and E of the I-35 corridor extending E into Louisiana. This appears to be a daytime Wednesday event so with some additional heating, strong storms with possible rotating cells and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The greatest threat at this time appears to be E of the I-45 area, but will need to be monitored closely for further updates. The active pattern continues as we head toward the weekend as another upper low digs S into the Baja Region on Thursday. This storm complex appears to be of greater threat for all the region as a Coastal Low develops and much greater instability will be across the entire area with heavy rainfall possible with training storm potential. More later on that system as multiple Winter Storm Recon mission data becomes available for ingest in model output. Stay tuned, as they say. Things appear to be heading toward a very active period for the next week or so...

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

One storm system has passed through the region yesterday only to be followed closely by the next storm. If you are going to end a drought….this is the way to do it!

Dense radiation fog will lift and burn off by mid morning with partly cloudy skies and warm for the afternoon hours…highs reaching into the mid 70’s after a cold period over the weekend. Next upper level storm is loading into the SW US currently and will swing across TX on Wednesday in this highly progressive yet favorable southern storm track…not common during La Nina winters…but we will take the rain! Moisture return ramps up this evening as winds increase from the SE pumping 60 degree dewpoint air mass over the NW Gulf inland. Expect dewpoints to rises above nearshore water temperatures by late afternoon with the formation of dense sea fog along the coast. This sea fog will spread inland after dark and likely persist into midday Wednesday along the coast and in the bays.

Upper level trough ejects over TX on Wednesday with tail end dynamics and cold front moving across SE TX during the mid morning to late afternoon hours. Favroable Gulf inflow will bring strong moisture return late tonight/early Wednesday with PWS peaking in the 1.4-1.6 inch range. Main dynamics are pointed more toward the mid-MS valley area, but enough clip SE TX especially north of I-10 and east of I-45 to get some decent looking storms going. I am a little wary of the 850mb winds showing a SSW to even SW direction on Wednesday which is usually more of a drying and capping direction from NE MX. Local Texas Tech 3km meso model shows a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE along the US 59 corridor tomorrow early afternoon, but shows the strongest storms north of I-10 or in the region of best forcing/lift. This model did very well with the event yesterday and will follow it closely as it matches overall decent with the GFS and the NAM runs.

With this in mind will favor areas north of I-10 and east of I-45 for the best rain chances on Wednesday and also a risk of severe thunderstorms capable of hail and wind damage. SPC slight risk DAY 2 outlook does include our north and eastern counties and this is matching well to what appears to be the SW extent of a larger severe weather outbreak over the mid south into Wednesday night. Activity will become more scattered to isolated toward the southwest where moisture will be the least favorable along with weaker upper level dynamics. Another decent soaking rainfall looks likely especially north of I-10 where amounts of .5-1.0 inch will be possible with a few totals up to 2.5 inches under the stronger storms.

Another quick break on Thursday, before yet another system heads east out of the SW US Friday-Saturday with another chance of wetting rains. This system looks much colder with surface low pressure forming along the Wednesday front over the NW Gulf and this moisture being pushed up and over a cold dome at the surface (overrunning). Timing of the main upper level trough and coastal surface low look out of phase, but once again strong dynamics in the sub-tropical flow aloft may help compensate for an otherwise modest rain setup. Will go with increasing clouds early Friday with light rainfall developing from SW to NE Friday evening. Elevated instability will come into play Friday night/Saturday morning as the Gulf surface low pushes warm moist air up and over the cold dome. Some thunderstorms will be possible at this point. Coastal areas will be favored for the main bulk of this rain event with 1-2 inches possible along the coast and much higher amounts offshore. Should the system move a bit further north and the surface low track closer to the coast, a significant increase in the rainfall amounts will be needed across much of SE TX as current offshore amounts are on the high side.

This system should be east of the area by late Saturday with a break on Sunday before yet another system arrives early next week.

[srainhoutx]

As mentioned yesterday and Jeff brings up this morning in his discussion, the Friday/Saturday event will need to be monitored a bit more closely because of the 'colder air' and the less progressive nature and a tad more southern track of the upper low and any slowing of the coastal low. With all the Winter Recon expected out over the Pacific, expect changes and who knows, perhaps something interesting develops over the next several days. We will see.

[wxman57]

To be clear, the colder air Jeff mentions for Friday's/Saturday's system is aloft (compared to yesterday's system). He's talking about thunderstorm potential not frozen precip. Current projections are that the air aloft will be about 20-30F WARMER (upper 40s to low 50s) than with the system that produced the sleet here last weekend.

[redneckweather]

srain says:


perhaps something interesting develops over the next several days


srain, if you could clarify, would would interesting part actually be?

[srainhoutx]

srain says:


perhaps something interesting develops over the next several days


srain, if you could clarify, would would interesting part actually be?

When I see the RECON data ingested after several runs, then I'll offer some further input. The models are clueless right now. They will change every 6-12 hours until that fresh data is ingested. What I stated as 'interesting' is due to the dynamics involved with the Baja upper low. And those some projected temp profiles were off last Sunday as we all know. The fact remains that we really don't know yet how this will play out. Remember December 10, 2008 was a huge bust by the models virtually up to the point when something did happen. It was 77F that Tuesday before the cold core U/L tracked E along I-10. Now I'm not saying there will be any wintry mischief involved, but I did say it will be worth monitoring. As wxman57 always tell us, the guidance is useless 3-5 days out and there is a reason why the HPC is interested beyond any East Coast threat.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
839 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 18 2012 - 12Z TUE FEB 21 2012

DURING THIS COMING WEEKEND MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DISPLAYS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN EJECTING
NWRN MEXICO CLOSED LOW AND POSSIBLE INTERACTING NRN STREAM ENERGY.
THIS LEADS TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS OF
CORRESPONDING SFC DEVELOPMENT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT OVER
AREAS FROM THE SRN PLAINS/GULF COAST NEWD THRU THE ERN CONUS.
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY... IT MAY WELL TAKE UNTIL WITHIN A COUPLE DAYS OF ACTUAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SOME CONSENSUS EMERGES REGARDING
IMPORTANT DETAILS. AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THE 00Z ECMWF
CURRENTLY IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND NWD/NEWD
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THE 12Z/13 UKMET WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
00Z ECMWF. THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/CMC HAVE MORE SUPPRESSED SOLNS TO
VARYING DEGREES WHILE THE 06Z GFS SHOWS NO STREAM INTERACTION AND
WEAKENS THE SRN STREAM FEATURE TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT THE SFC WAVE
DOES NOT SURVIVE PAST THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENSEMBLES WIDEN THE
SOLN ENVELOPE FURTHER... AS THE 00Z GEFS MEAN TRAILS THE SLOW SIDE
OF THE OPERATIONAL SOLNS WHILE THE AVERAGE OF VARIED 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS YIELDS A WAVE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. OVER
THE PAST DAY THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH INDICATIONS FROM OPERATIONAL
MODELS TOWARD AT LEAST A MODERATELY DEFINED SYSTEM... AND
SUFFICIENT TROF AMPLIFICATION UPSTREAM TO SUGGEST A SFC TRACK
SOMEWHAT NWD OF THE SRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD... FOR PREFERRING A
COMPROMISE AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CLUSTER AT THIS TIME. THE
12Z/13 ECMWF COMES CLOSEST TO THIS IDEA AND THUS IS GIVEN THE
GREATEST WEIGHT IN THE EARLY AND UPDATED PRELIM FCSTS.

MEANWHILE THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO WRN CONUS/NRN TIER TROF AMPLIFICATION FCST TO OCCUR FROM DAY 4
SAT ONWARD. AT VARIOUS POINTS IN THE FCST THE 00Z UKMET/CMC AND
06Z GFS DISPLAY SOMEWHAT GREATER AMPLIFICATION THAN THE GUIDANCE
AVERAGE. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE CONSISTENT/AGREEABLE
CORE OF ERN PAC POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES EXPECTED TO LIE NEAR OR
JUST W OF 40N 140W SUGGEST THAT THE W-CNTRL CONUS MEAN TROF SHOULD
BE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE... SO WOULD FAVOR LEANING AWAY FROM THE
MOST AMPLIFIED SOLNS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS IDEA IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT THE 00Z GFS AND RECENT ECMWF/CMC RUNS MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF LEADING ENERGY MOVING THRU
THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS VERSUS THE SLOWER 00Z UKMET/GEFS MEAN AND
06Z GFS.

CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SRN/ERN STATES
EARLY-MID PERIOD YIELD A DAYS 3-5 FRI-SUN BLEND CONSISTING OF 70
PCT 12Z/13 ECMWF AND 30 PCT 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... WITH THE
LATTER INCLUDED TO INCORPORATE AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF NEWER DATA
AND BEGIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT THE 12Z/13 ECMWF IS ON THE
SLOW SIDE OF THE CURRENT SPREAD WITH THE SYSTEM NEAR THE PAC NW
COAST AS OF EARLY DAY 4. WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE 12Z GUIDANCE
WILL BE INCORPORATED FURTHER IF IT MAINTAINS FASTER TIMING LIKE
MOST 00Z SOLNS. TYPICALLY LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS BY DAYS 6-7
FAVORS GREATER EMPHASIS ON THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN THAN THE 12Z/13
ECMWF FOR MON-TUE.

[wxman57]

Looks like cold rain for us Friday night through around sunrise Saturday. Temps holding in the 50 degree range. Still some minor differences between GFS and Euro. Euro is faster with the system by about 6-8 hours, ending the rain by sunrise Saturday. GFS is farther south with the coastal low, meaning less rain but ending later. Euro is probably the better model to follow.