November: Cool & Dry To End The Month

[redneckweather]

Well ho freakin hum with the storm system next week. It looks like capping will keep us fairly dry and the front really doesn't look all that strong. Maybe someone will get a passing shower.

[srainhoutx]

It got down to 33F here early this morning. I see some areas N and W managed to hit the freezing mark...on November 4th...

[jasons2k]

I woke-up to widespread frost, especially on rooftops, in ditches, and in open areas. I thought to myself "the NWS should have at least issued a frost warning".

So this morning, I see a freeze warning was issued for NW areas after 8:30 last night. A little late to the party - more like a CYA so they can say a warning was issued....but who knew?

[jasons2k]

00Z NAM and GFS raise an eyebrow for N TX/OK. Cap needs to break in our area for some relief...

Cap in November? We're cursed.

[tireman4]

I am not Srain or Wxman 57, but is some of this not typical of a transition phase from fall to eventually winter.

[srainhoutx]

00Z NAM and GFS raise an eyebrow for N TX/OK. Cap needs to break in our area for some relief...

Cap in November? We're cursed.

At least it looks a bit better on the 12Z runs (capping). The big problem is guidance is struggling with a storm that is near the Gulf of Alaska and is still 5 days out. Let's see what things look like over the weekend.

12Z GFS 16 day totals:

Code: Select all

16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 2.71 " and Convective: 2.47 "

[srainhoutx]

The longer range WRF (84 hours) suggests a closed low with a cold pocket aloft. Severe weather potential for our neighbors to the N do raise an eyebrow...

[Belmer]

My jaw is dropped. I'm absolutely speechless...

November, in Houston it is normal to have 80s...

WOW, I need a drink!
Well, Srain ...answer the man.

[srainhoutx]

It's fairly typical to get temp swings in November as we transition from a fall like pattern to that of a Winter La Nina Pattern. In fact, as we are talking about in the November thread, severe weather can come with that transition. With this La Nina pattern, SW mid level mid is where the capping comes from and as you see we have a trough that is to our W along the West Coast to the Intermountain West. The good news is that this pattern can increase our rain chances as we move further in the month. So hang in there AZ, November can be a rollercoaster ride in the temp swing department.

[srainhoutx]

The guidance is coming into better agreement that Tuesday may get a bit interesting around SE TX. While capping will be an issue on Monday, don't be surprise if showers start to break out as the trough begins to move E and a potent Fall Storm ejects out of the 4 Corners region into the Southern Plains. As I mentioned last night, there is a cold pocket and a lot of dynamics at play with the storm system and HGX has started to increase rain chances for Tuesday. The SPC has already put areas to our N and W in a Slight Risk, so expect things in the weather department to begin to ramp up.

[srainhoutx]

I did briefly want to touch on a bit longer range this morning. While nothing is cast in stone, there are hints that near mid November, a bit if a shift is coming for the colder/wetter weather pattern lover, that is encouraging. More later after we get beyond early next week...Oh and don’t forget to set your clocks back an hour tonight…

[redneckweather]

That would be great srain...freakin fantastic actually but I don't see the NWS leaning in this direction? In fact they talk about a warming trend with southerly winds going into next weekend and into the following week?

[wxman666]

SPC DAY 3: Slight risk of severe includes our CWA

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

[Ptarmigan]

Since there is a chance for severe weather outbreak and we had 14 billion dollar disasters already including our drought. Could this be our 15th? I hope not.

[wxman666]

Since there is a chance for severe weather outbreak and we had 14 billion dollar disasters already including our drought. Could this be our 15th? I hope not.

I'm really hoping not too Ptarmigan. I'm a little shaky about the SPC's strong(er) wording on the day 2 outlook, and also especially now with the SPS statement that came out of the San Angelo NWS. My grandparents live in Brownwood, TX. I'll be keeping a close eye on them tomorrow, and on us Tuesday. Which reminds me...my wx radio is dead. Time for new batteries.

[biggerbyte]

We will have to see about capping around here on Tuesday. Right now the threat is significant enough to at least mention the possibility. Folks in central and north Texas, however, should really pay attention.

[sleetstorm]

There are thunderstorms forming over Noth Central Texas even as we speak.

[biggerbyte]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... /SYS/COMP/

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Active weather pattern in place over Texas will lead to increasing rain chances today-Tuesday night.

Large upper level trough over the SW US this morning has dug all the way down to the US/MX border. Downstream of this feature over TX SE low level flow has returned the warm and muggy air mass into the region with AM dewpoints running in the 60’s to low 70’s over much of the region. Sub tropical jet is coring across MX into TX adding some lift. Mid level cap layer is fairly strong and even with jet stream lifting, not expecting any thunderstorms over SE TX today.

Increasing moisture and low level convergence may lead to a few streamer type showers moving inland off the Gulf of Mexico today and tonight although thus far shower activity has been fairly spotty. Big storms will erupt later today over western TX as the main upper trough begins to eject eastward with strong lift and the surface front. Expect a linear squall line to develop tonight along the advancing surface front with severe wind and hail the main threats. Downstream air mass looks to remain capped off and the potential for discrete supercell formation ahead of the main line appears low.

Strong dynamics come to bear across SE TX on Tuesday as a cold front and trough approach. Appears the front will reach the area by mid afternoon and sweep off the coast Wednesday morning. Air mass becomes increasingly moist and unstable with PWS progged to peak near 1.5-1.7 inches and LI’s falling to around -2 to -4. Significant cloud cover should limit low level heating helping to keep overall instability on the lower end of the scale, but still expecting 800-1500 J/Kg of CAPE. Could be some decent low level shear around Matagorda Bay into the Victoria area early Tuesday and if storms are able to break the cap and root near the surface they could start to rotate in this region. Feel that capping will hold but this potential will need to be watched closely. SPC has outlooked the entire region for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening. Above mentioned factors will support at least a broken line of thunderstorms with the front Tuesday afternoon/evening. Still some concern on how strong the capping will be in this area, but latest guidance as trended wetter and weaker with the capping leading to a greater confidence of at least some kind of rainfall. Main severe threat will be damaging winds and large hail although a few tornadoes could be possible if discrete cells can form ahead of the main line. Will take a closer look at the severe threat Tuesday AM.

As for the much needed rainfall, widespread .25 to .75 of an inch is likely with isolated amounts of 1-2 inches especially east of I-45 and north of HWY 105 where the strongest dynamics will be found.

Strong front will sweep into the Gulf Wednesday AM with gusty NW winds and falling temperatures. Upper trough really does not clear the area until Thursday AM, but strong drying post surface front should result in little post frontal rainfall. Cold air once again expected over the region for Thursday and Friday with lows in the 30’s/40’s and highs in the 60’s.

Surface high will start to shift eastward Friday allowing the return to SE winds and moisture build up ahead of the next trough due in toward the start of next week. A highly progressive pattern with some chances for rainfall….

SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook:

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[srainhoutx]

THIS IS GETTING TO BE STUPID,,, TEMPS GOING BACK TO THE 60S FOR HIGHS, UPPER 30S FOR LOWS,, BUT I SEE THAT BY SUNDAY THEY ARE ALLREADY WANTING TEMPS TO GO ALL THE WAY BACK UP TO THE 80S.
THIS IS RIDICULOUS,SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS, ITS GETTING LATER IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND TEMPS STILL GOING TO THE 80S, THATS TOO WARM EVEN FOR HOUSTON.

Keep an eye on the November thread, AZ. A change is a comin' just in time for Thanksgiving...