Wow, got a few drops as it went poof. Saw lightning get closer and more intense, practically daylight at night, and then suddenly it was like a light switch went off. What a deal.
Beautiful home and landscaping @cromagnum
May 2025
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5359
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
WPC increased their rainfall projections for se texas to widespread 3-5 inches next week
Oops. Sorry. I didn’t realize storms couldn’t exist at night. Silly me.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 5:56 pmThe. Sun. Set.Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 2:38 pmYes. Cap, stable air, etc. All of it....but WHY?Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu May 01, 2025 2:29 pm Im blaming the cap and lack of instability in that department, herzog said last nights storms fell apart due to stable air over se texas and the upper level winds were pushing those storms into lousiana , im still optimistic about next week providing much better opportunities
Why is this happening so frequently - in just this relatively small geographic spot?
SPC upgraded a huge swath of Texas to level 3. Gonna be rough later if the last two days were any indication.
Well folks, looks like if you missed out so far, today’s your day. With last night’s system dying off instead of clean-sweeping the atmosphere out into the Gulf, we’re left with an atmosphere primed to boom after a little heating. The upper-level ingredients plus a surface cold front all coming together today puts SE Texas right in the zone for severe storms and heavy rains. Keep a close watch on the weather today, it looks to be an active one.
Stay weather aware today.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
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- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
586
FXUS64 KHGX 021142
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025
SE Texas will see very active weather today from a growing risk
of severe storms, especially this afternoon. Now throughout the
late morning hours should be mostly calm, save for a few sparse
showers and the occasional isolated storm. This will be driven by
a passing shortwave, which can be seen in water vapor imagery near
south Texas. As already mentioned, any activity from this
disturbance should be very limited due high stability early this
morning. Still, one strong storm has seemingly pulled itself
together near south Texas, and may push into our area early today
before dissipating (possibly giving our NWR listeners an early
morning wake-up call).
The greater severe weather threat begins to emerge during the
late morning/early afternoon (lets say around 10 AM or so) as
inhibition/capping erodes from daytime heating. Simultaneously,
we`ll see a swath of PVA push into the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
area, preceding an approaching cold front from the north. We`ll
slowly see thunderstorm activity trend upwards from here on as
PVA strengthens while instability and shear pick up. HREF puts
mean SFC CAPE broadly above 2500 J/KG, exceeding 3000 K/KG in most
areas north of I-10/US-59 (possibly to 4000 J/KG at times). 6km
shear starts off around 30 knots early in the afternoon, but is
progged to rise to 60 knots later in the day. This early afternoon
period also features steep lapse rates near 7 deC/KM, though
notably 3km SRH remains rather low, broadly under 100 m2/s2. A few
discrete/organized storms may develop ahead of the front, though
again it`ll be largely confined towards the northern half of the
CWA initially.
The cold front should start to push into southeast Texas during the
mid/late afternoon (likely some around or after 1 PM). As it does,
we`ll see thunderstorm activity greatly increase and begin to
propagate southward with the cold front as a broken line/clusters of
storms. Updraft helicity reaches it`s apex during this period,
indicating this to be the main timeframe of focus for severe weather
threat. Additionally, the slow southward propagation of these storms
with an easterly storm motion also suggest the potential for
training storms. Model guidance shows the severe weather threat
decreasing late tonight as instability decreases, with the main line
of storms pushing offshore around midnight. By this point, the
severe weather threat should be over, with only lingering showers
persisting into Saturday morning.
SPC has most of SE Texas under an Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for
severe weather today. Simultaneously, WPC has most of the area
under a Slight (level 2/4) Risk for excessive rainfall. All severe
weather hazards will be on the table for today, though damaging
wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will become the primary
focus later in the afternoon as this line of storms pushes south.
With all this in mind, make sure to have multiple ways of
receiving warnings.
Saturday will feature much more benign weather behind the cold
front. Any lingering showers and storms will taper off into the
afternoon, paving the way for calm weather this weekend.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
Upper level ridging will settle in on Sunday leading to drier
conditions across inland portions of Southeast Texas. PWAT values
for portions of the coast will remain around 1.5", and with decent
moisture convergence along the coast, could see a few showers during
the day Sunday in this area. Highs will be in the lower 80s area
wide. Nighttime lows Sunday will be in the 50s to low 60s inland and
in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast. Benign weather
conditions continue into the early work week before another active
pattern takes over mid-week. Rain chances will increase Tuesday into
Wednesday as low-level moisture increases and the atmosphere
destabilizes ahead of several upper-level disturbances. Highs
through the week will generally be in the low to mid 80s. Lows will
be in the 60s to low 70s through the first half of the week.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025
Short lived MVFR CIGs are possible early this morning, though VFR
conditions should dominate throughout most of the morning to early
afternoon. Light, spotty showers may pop up at times early today.
Scattered thunderstorms become more likely around noon, increasing
in coverage and spreading southward through the afternoon into
tonight as a cold front pushes southward. The associated cold
front should push off the coast around or just after midnight,
with lingering showers (and possibly some isolated storms)
trailing behind the front. MVFR CIGs start to fill in early
Saturday morning as showers start to taper off.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected
through the weekend. Winds are expected to strengthen early next
week and relax by mid week. Caution flags and/or Small Craft
Advisories may be needed at times. Chance for showers and storms
over the waters can be expected daily through the next several days.
Risk for strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches will
continue Friday and potentially through the weekend. Please avoid
going into the waters if Red Flags are present along the beaches.
Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 63 77 52 / 80 80 10 0
Houston (IAH) 87 67 81 59 / 70 80 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 71 81 68 / 30 60 50 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Adams
FXUS64 KHGX 021142
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025
SE Texas will see very active weather today from a growing risk
of severe storms, especially this afternoon. Now throughout the
late morning hours should be mostly calm, save for a few sparse
showers and the occasional isolated storm. This will be driven by
a passing shortwave, which can be seen in water vapor imagery near
south Texas. As already mentioned, any activity from this
disturbance should be very limited due high stability early this
morning. Still, one strong storm has seemingly pulled itself
together near south Texas, and may push into our area early today
before dissipating (possibly giving our NWR listeners an early
morning wake-up call).
The greater severe weather threat begins to emerge during the
late morning/early afternoon (lets say around 10 AM or so) as
inhibition/capping erodes from daytime heating. Simultaneously,
we`ll see a swath of PVA push into the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
area, preceding an approaching cold front from the north. We`ll
slowly see thunderstorm activity trend upwards from here on as
PVA strengthens while instability and shear pick up. HREF puts
mean SFC CAPE broadly above 2500 J/KG, exceeding 3000 K/KG in most
areas north of I-10/US-59 (possibly to 4000 J/KG at times). 6km
shear starts off around 30 knots early in the afternoon, but is
progged to rise to 60 knots later in the day. This early afternoon
period also features steep lapse rates near 7 deC/KM, though
notably 3km SRH remains rather low, broadly under 100 m2/s2. A few
discrete/organized storms may develop ahead of the front, though
again it`ll be largely confined towards the northern half of the
CWA initially.
The cold front should start to push into southeast Texas during the
mid/late afternoon (likely some around or after 1 PM). As it does,
we`ll see thunderstorm activity greatly increase and begin to
propagate southward with the cold front as a broken line/clusters of
storms. Updraft helicity reaches it`s apex during this period,
indicating this to be the main timeframe of focus for severe weather
threat. Additionally, the slow southward propagation of these storms
with an easterly storm motion also suggest the potential for
training storms. Model guidance shows the severe weather threat
decreasing late tonight as instability decreases, with the main line
of storms pushing offshore around midnight. By this point, the
severe weather threat should be over, with only lingering showers
persisting into Saturday morning.
SPC has most of SE Texas under an Enhanced (level 3/5) Risk for
severe weather today. Simultaneously, WPC has most of the area
under a Slight (level 2/4) Risk for excessive rainfall. All severe
weather hazards will be on the table for today, though damaging
wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will become the primary
focus later in the afternoon as this line of storms pushes south.
With all this in mind, make sure to have multiple ways of
receiving warnings.
Saturday will feature much more benign weather behind the cold
front. Any lingering showers and storms will taper off into the
afternoon, paving the way for calm weather this weekend.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
Upper level ridging will settle in on Sunday leading to drier
conditions across inland portions of Southeast Texas. PWAT values
for portions of the coast will remain around 1.5", and with decent
moisture convergence along the coast, could see a few showers during
the day Sunday in this area. Highs will be in the lower 80s area
wide. Nighttime lows Sunday will be in the 50s to low 60s inland and
in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees along the coast. Benign weather
conditions continue into the early work week before another active
pattern takes over mid-week. Rain chances will increase Tuesday into
Wednesday as low-level moisture increases and the atmosphere
destabilizes ahead of several upper-level disturbances. Highs
through the week will generally be in the low to mid 80s. Lows will
be in the 60s to low 70s through the first half of the week.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025
Short lived MVFR CIGs are possible early this morning, though VFR
conditions should dominate throughout most of the morning to early
afternoon. Light, spotty showers may pop up at times early today.
Scattered thunderstorms become more likely around noon, increasing
in coverage and spreading southward through the afternoon into
tonight as a cold front pushes southward. The associated cold
front should push off the coast around or just after midnight,
with lingering showers (and possibly some isolated storms)
trailing behind the front. MVFR CIGs start to fill in early
Saturday morning as showers start to taper off.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected
through the weekend. Winds are expected to strengthen early next
week and relax by mid week. Caution flags and/or Small Craft
Advisories may be needed at times. Chance for showers and storms
over the waters can be expected daily through the next several days.
Risk for strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches will
continue Friday and potentially through the weekend. Please avoid
going into the waters if Red Flags are present along the beaches.
Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 63 77 52 / 80 80 10 0
Houston (IAH) 87 67 81 59 / 70 80 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 71 81 68 / 30 60 50 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Adams
From Jeff:
A higher end severe weather threat will evolve over the region today into this evening.
Have multiple ways to receive warnings!
An active day of weather is on tap for the region as a weak cold front move into an increasingly unstable air mass. Widespread thunderstorms will erupt as surface heating removes weak capping in place by late morning into the early afternoon hours with then large clusters or lines moving southward across the region into the late afternoon and evening hours. Activity should reach the coast and push offshore around midnight.
There is a pronounced severe weather threat this afternoon given high levels of instability in the atmosphere and increasing shear. All severe modes will be possible with damaging winds to 70mph and large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter being the main threats. SPC has upgraded much of the region into an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe weather. While the tornado threat is low, it is not zero and low level boundary mergers could result in local enhanced low level shear and a brief tornado. This is a day you want to be paying attention to the weather!
Given the slow moving nature of the frontal boundary along with the potential for storms and storm clusters to repeatedly move over the same areas the flash flood threat will be increased this afternoon and evening. Areas north of I-10 have now experienced at least two rounds of storms in the last 48 hours with grounds becoming increasingly saturated while much of the metro area and points south have seen little rainfall. Given the moisture in place, good low level feed off the western Gulf, and potential for training thunderstorms flash flooding and urban flooding could quickly develop. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be likely with isolated higher totals upwards of 4-5 inches in a few hours.
Storm clusters or a large complex will make its way across the region early this evening and offshore by late evening with a drier air mass filtering in early Saturday and left over showers ending by sunrise.
Timing: Storms look to begin to develop as early as noon-100pm north of I-10 with more significant development and coverage in the 100-300pm timeframe with activity lasting well into the late evening hours especially for locations south of I-10.
Dry air and weak ridging will result in a fair and somewhat cooler weekend, but southerly flow quickly returns by late Sunday and Gulf moisture comes rushing back northward ahead of what looks to be a slow moving storm system for the mid to late part of next week. Overall pattern will support several rounds of severe thunderstorms and heavy/flooding rainfall across the state. This looks to be an increasingly classic May severe and flash flood scenario, but the fine details on timing, rainfall amounts, and the severe weather will have to be worked out in the coming days.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
Jeff.Lindner@hcfcd.hctx.net | Twitter: @jefflindner1
A higher end severe weather threat will evolve over the region today into this evening.
Have multiple ways to receive warnings!
An active day of weather is on tap for the region as a weak cold front move into an increasingly unstable air mass. Widespread thunderstorms will erupt as surface heating removes weak capping in place by late morning into the early afternoon hours with then large clusters or lines moving southward across the region into the late afternoon and evening hours. Activity should reach the coast and push offshore around midnight.
There is a pronounced severe weather threat this afternoon given high levels of instability in the atmosphere and increasing shear. All severe modes will be possible with damaging winds to 70mph and large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter being the main threats. SPC has upgraded much of the region into an enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk for severe weather. While the tornado threat is low, it is not zero and low level boundary mergers could result in local enhanced low level shear and a brief tornado. This is a day you want to be paying attention to the weather!
Given the slow moving nature of the frontal boundary along with the potential for storms and storm clusters to repeatedly move over the same areas the flash flood threat will be increased this afternoon and evening. Areas north of I-10 have now experienced at least two rounds of storms in the last 48 hours with grounds becoming increasingly saturated while much of the metro area and points south have seen little rainfall. Given the moisture in place, good low level feed off the western Gulf, and potential for training thunderstorms flash flooding and urban flooding could quickly develop. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be likely with isolated higher totals upwards of 4-5 inches in a few hours.
Storm clusters or a large complex will make its way across the region early this evening and offshore by late evening with a drier air mass filtering in early Saturday and left over showers ending by sunrise.
Timing: Storms look to begin to develop as early as noon-100pm north of I-10 with more significant development and coverage in the 100-300pm timeframe with activity lasting well into the late evening hours especially for locations south of I-10.
Dry air and weak ridging will result in a fair and somewhat cooler weekend, but southerly flow quickly returns by late Sunday and Gulf moisture comes rushing back northward ahead of what looks to be a slow moving storm system for the mid to late part of next week. Overall pattern will support several rounds of severe thunderstorms and heavy/flooding rainfall across the state. This looks to be an increasingly classic May severe and flash flood scenario, but the fine details on timing, rainfall amounts, and the severe weather will have to be worked out in the coming days.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
Jeff.Lindner@hcfcd.hctx.net | Twitter: @jefflindner1
We’ll see what happens, but I’m not too optimistic about my area.
The longer the storms hold off today the stronger they will be later this afternoon. Looks like folks along and N of I-10 are in for a doozy today.
First storm of the day has blown up between Crosby and Baytown.
Both Houston radars down again for now.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6023
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Yep...
Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
On an enhanced risk severe weather day, the Houston Doppler Radar has now been down for an hour with no ETA on its return. Looks like a comms issue. Reminder, the Houston office is currently dealing with a vacant electronic systems analyst because of forced austerity measures.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5359
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Hopefully nothing severe, just some good heavy rain please
Mesoscale Discussion 0647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025
Areas affected...central into eastern Texas and far western Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 021605Z - 021800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase into the afternoon hours as storms develop and become more widespread. The stronger storms may produce severe hail/wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...A convective outflow boundary from earlier storms continues to slowly drift southward across central TX into LA, with clearing and insolation contributing to continued boundary-layer destabilization on both sides of the boundary. While strong storms may develop from re-intensifying convection across northern TX, the most likely location for the development of robust severe storms will be along the outflow boundary, as well as with convection that has already initiated in the warm sector across southeast TX. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading a moist boundary layer, characterized by 70+ F surface dewpoints, contributing to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. As the mid-level trough over the Plains states undergoes amplification this afternoon, and is overspread by 80+ kts of 300 mb westerly flow from an approaching sub-tropical jet stream, deep-layer shear should increase, supporting well over 40 kts of effective bulk shear. When considering the strong instability in place, several supercells should develop, accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat. Multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible given the expected increase of strong mid to upper-level shear, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially with any dominant supercell structures interacting with mesoscale boundaries. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed in the next few hours to address the impending severe threat.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025
Areas affected...central into eastern Texas and far western Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 021605Z - 021800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase into the afternoon hours as storms develop and become more widespread. The stronger storms may produce severe hail/wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...A convective outflow boundary from earlier storms continues to slowly drift southward across central TX into LA, with clearing and insolation contributing to continued boundary-layer destabilization on both sides of the boundary. While strong storms may develop from re-intensifying convection across northern TX, the most likely location for the development of robust severe storms will be along the outflow boundary, as well as with convection that has already initiated in the warm sector across southeast TX. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading a moist boundary layer, characterized by 70+ F surface dewpoints, contributing to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. As the mid-level trough over the Plains states undergoes amplification this afternoon, and is overspread by 80+ kts of 300 mb westerly flow from an approaching sub-tropical jet stream, deep-layer shear should increase, supporting well over 40 kts of effective bulk shear. When considering the strong instability in place, several supercells should develop, accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat. Multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are possible given the expected increase of strong mid to upper-level shear, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially with any dominant supercell structures interacting with mesoscale boundaries. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed in the next few hours to address the impending severe threat.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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Last edited by jasons2k on Fri May 02, 2025 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
MCD discussion already hoisted.
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